Rosch

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Hard to imagine what the global soybean market would be without China

This is all good and well, but honestly, the Americans will have a hard time finding new soybean markets, beyond China.

China is a big deal – it accounts for more than two-thirds of global soybean imports
Trailing China is Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain, Japan, Germany and Thailand. The US is already a leading supplier of soybeans in these markets and it is unlikely that the soybean demand in the aforementioned countries will grow in the near future at the pace we have witnessed in China.

Therefore, the US soybean farmers, industry groups and government officials’ quest to look beyond China for exports markets might prove fruitless. There is just not enough demand outside China.

Over the past 5-years, the US accounted for roughly 38% of global soybean exports and their leading market was China, with about 60% share. Now, to suddenly think two-thirds of your soybean market could be replaced by other countries in a short space of time ishard to comprehend. This is all public information and surely the US knows this. One wonders whether their statements are just ‘grandstanding’?

Anyway, let me not be negative in the morning – just yesterday, China was back buying US soybeans – maybe things will somewhat normalise over time.

Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


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