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Poultry imports lead to price declines for December - South Africa

The total poultry imports from Brazil are estimated at R3,2 billion for 2017. During the first 10 months of 2018 Brazilian imports already exceeded R2,9 billion.

The expected imports for 2018 can be estimated at R3,6 billion. From the world, South Africa imported until October an estimated R5,14 billion broiler meat products. The total imports from the world for 2018 are estimated at R6,2 billion. Keep in mind that the average exchange rate for the Rand to the $ were R13.32 in 2017 and R13.16 in 2018. The import value of poultry products increased by 20% year on year. The profitability of local poultry production is challenged by the increased competitive imports from the world. South African exports of poultry declined year on year by 16,3%. The impact of imports on the poultry industry and the consequent substitution of local production impacts also on other industries such as the grain and oilseeds industry. Growth in the domestic market for locally produced feedstock such as maize and soybean are impacted negatively as well.

Highlights

South African poultry imports increased by 20% year on year. The value of poultry imports is estimated at R6,2 billion for 2018. The Poultry Association applied for an adjustment in the import tariff to protect the local industry from cheaper imports.

Livestock

The combination of the unusual increase in supply by primary producers of cattle to meet cash flow needs and the seasonal increase of supply by feedlots at abattoirs to meet demand during the festive season weigh on local beef prices.

The tightening supply in Australia and a strong export demand will support mutton prices in 2019

At current prices US pork producers will be producing pork at break-even levels during Q1 in 2019. Producers will incur losses with further declines in pork prices.

ABSA AGRI TRENDS- Wessel Lemmer. 


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