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South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap

The producer deliveries data for 2017/18 summer grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans and sunflower seed, show that South Africa will have sufficient supplies until the first quarter of 2019.

Hence, the focus in the market is somewhat shifting towards the 2018/19 production season which commences next month. On that end, the weather forecasters are predicting a possibility of another El Niño event, which could negatively affect the new season crop if it materialises.

It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of the forecast El Niño. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on October 25.

From a winter crop perspective, this has been one of the good seasons following a drought year in the Western Cape that led to a double-digit decline in 2017/18 wheat production.

The SAFEX beef carcass market experienced a quiet week with prices unchanged from levels seen last week. In terms of the supply, the South African farmers slaughtered 212 060 head of cattle in July 2018, down by a percentage point from July 2017 due to the herd rebuilding process after a reduction during the 2015-16 drought.

The producer deliveries data for 2017/18 summer grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans and sunflower seed, show that South Africa will have sufficient supplies until the first quarter of 2019. Hence, the focus in the market is somewhat shifting towards the 2018/19 production season which commences next month. On that end, the weather forecasters are predicting a possibility of another El Niño event, which could negatively affect the new season crop if it materialises. It is still unclear whether South African farmers will reduce the intentions to plant because of the forecast El Niño. However, we will have a better indication when the Crop Estimate Committee releases its estimates on October 25. From a winter crop perspective, this has been one of the good seasons following a drought year in the Western Cape that led to a double-digit decline in 2017/18 wheat production.

- Looking ahead, the data calendar for next week is fairly light with no major releases. AGBIZ


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