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VILLA CROP

U.S. wheat and corn carryover forecasts raised

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised from March its forecast carryover of wheat and corn but slightly lowered its soybean forecast.

The carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2019, was forecast at 1.087 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels, or 3%, from 1.055 billion bushels as the March forecast but down 12 million bushels from 1.099 billion bushels in 2018.

There were no changes made to wheat supply forecasts for 2018-19.

Total wheat use in 2018-19 was forecast at 2.042 billion bushels, down 31 million bushels from March but up 62 million bushels from 1.980 billion bushels in 2017-18. Food use of wheat was unchanged from March at 965 million bushels, feed and residual use was lowered by 10 million bushels to 70 million bushels and exports were reduced by 20 million bushels to 945 million bushels. 

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 2.035 billion bushels, up 200 million bushels, or 11%, from 1.835 billion bushels as the March forecast but down 105 million bushels, or 4.9%, from 2.140 billion bushels in 2018.

Corn supply forecasts for the current year were unchanged from March.

Total domestic use was forecast at 12.265 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels from March and down 95 million bushels from 12.360 billion bushels in 2017-18. Feed and residual use was forecast at 5.3 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels from March, and use of corn for ethanol was forecast at 5.5 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels.

Exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 2.3 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels from March and down 138 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.438 billion bushels last year.

Feed and residual use for both wheat and corn were lowered based on estimates in the March 29 Grain Stocks report that implied lower use, the USDA said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was forecast at 895 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from March but up 104% from 438 million bushels in 2018. Unchanged from March were forecast domestic crush at 2.1 billion bushels and exports at 1.875 billion bushels, although exports were down 12% from 2017-18. Slight changes were made to imports and seed use.

The USDA 2019 carryover forecasts for wheat and corn were above the average of trade expectations while the soybean number was slightly below. There was minimal reaction in futures markets after the report with wheat futures slightly lower and nearby corn and soybean futures fractionally lower.

The USDA forecast 2018-19 world wheat ending stocks at 275.61 million tonnes, up 5.08 million tonnes from March but down 6.28 million tonnes from 281.89 million tonnes in the prior year. The changes from March mainly were based on supply revisions for Iran and lower global consumption, primarily lower feed use, the USDA said.

Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 314.01 million tonnes, up 5.48 million tonnes from March but down 26.4 million tonnes from 340.41 million tonnes in 2017-18. Corn production forecasts were raised from March for Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, the European Union and others.

World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 107.36 million tonnes, up 190,000 tonnes from March and up 8.31 million tonnes, or 8%, from 99.05 million tonnes in 2017-18.

AND- 

Ukraine exported 38.6 million tonnes of grain from July 1, 2018, through April 9, 2019, a 20% increase compared to the same period in the previous year, according to a Reutersreport.

More than 20 million tonnes of corn have been exported thus far in 2018-19. However, wheat shipments during that period fell by 7.6%, to 13.3 million tonnes, including 8.6 million tonnes of food grade wheat, according to Reuters. Ukraine exported 3.2 million tonnes of barley, down 20% from same period in 2017-18.

For the entire 2017-18 season, Ukraine exported 39.9 million tonnes of grain, according to the Ukraine Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry.

In 2018, Ukraine harvested its largest grain crop — 70.1 million tonnes — since it gained independence in 1991.


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