Cumulus Report: 1st May 2019- South Africa-

The sunny and mild to warm conditions across the interior that developed late last week is set to continue for the next few days.
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AgriSeker

30 April 2019

The maize-production region will experience temperatures in the normal to above-normal range with abundant sunshine. Temperatures over the interior will increase gradually through the week until the weekend. Two frontal systems may however result in winter rainfall over the southern parts. Inclement weather may dominate the southern parts during the weekend.

According to current forecasts, cold, wet and windy conditions may spread over the Cape provinces from late Thursday, but the central to northern and eastern interior is expected to remain relatively warm, dominated by anticyclonic flow - according to current forecasts. There are early indications of the possible development of another rain-producing system by next week over the interior - the outlook is still very uncertain this far ahead.

The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:

• General:
o The interior is expected to by dry for the most part.
o Near-normal rainfall is expected over the winter rainfall region as well as the southern to eastern coastal belt and Eastern Cape. 
o Temperatures over the interior will on average remain in the normal to above-normal range. Over the central parts of the country, average temperatures are expected to be 2 - 6°C above the long-term mean. 
o Temperatures over the winter rainfall region will be near normal to below normal. 
o There is no indication of severe frost given the expected weather conditions during the next few days. 
o Relatively warm conditions with persistent northwesterly winds will be present over the central to northern and northwestern interior during most of the period. 
o Fresh to strong southeasterlies will occur over the southwestern parts during the weekend. 
• Rainfall: 
o No rain is expected over the interior until at least the weekend.
o Light showers are possible over the winter rainfall region on Tuesday (30th), mainly in the south. Light showers may spread along the southern to eastern coastal belt on Wednesday (1st). 
o Showers are possible over the winter rainfall region on Thursday (2nd). 
o Showers will spread along the southern and eastern coastal belt and adjacent interior on Friday (3rd) and Saturday (4th), with fresh to strong southwesterlies becoming easterly later. Light showers and drizzle will spread along the northeastern escarpment on Sunday (5th). 
o Showers or thundershowers may develop over the eastern parts (KZN, eastern Free State) by Monday (6th) while scattered showers are possible along the southern to eastern coastal belt and adjacent interior according to current outlooks. 
• Temperatures:
o Hot, berg-wind conditions are possible over the southeastern parts (mainly the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape) on Tuesday (30th) and Thursday (2nd). 
o Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 22 and 29 °C while minimums will be in the order of 7 - 15° 
o Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 21 and 27°C while minimums will be in the order of 6 - 11°C. 
o Minimum and maximum temperatures across the interior (including the maize-production region) will continue to increase gradually during the next few days. 
o It will be very hot over the Loweveld and northern KZN on Friday (3rd). 
o Cool to cold conditions with fresh southerly to southeasterly winds will invade the southern parts from Friday onwards. 
o It will be warm to hot and windy over most of the interior of the Northern Cape throughout the period, except for the southern to western parts where it will become cool to cold and windy from Friday (3rd) into the weekend. 

Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days

Anticyclonic circulation over the interior, with the center of the high towards the east at the surface, will result in gradual warming across most of the interior. Between the high-pressure center to the northeast and some frontal activity over the southwestern parts, a northwesterly flow will develop and is expected to persist for the most part over the interior, especially the central to western interior. The northwesterly flow across the interior may also result in hot berg-wind conditions over especially the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape on Tuesday (30th) and Thursday (2nd).

A cold front will bring isolated light showers to the winter rainfall region and Garden Route on Tuesday (30th). Another, stronger frontal system will reach the southern parts by Thursday (2nd).

This system is expected to move eastwards across the southern parts of the country, with a ridging high behind it advecting cool to cold air over the southern parts. Ahead of the cooler weather to the south, an off-shore flow will result in hot conditions over the extreme eastern and northeastern parts (Lowveld, northern KZN) on Friday (3rd).

The ridging action in the south will also bring some rain along the southern to eastern coastal belt and adjacent interior during the weekend, while strong south easterlies may develop in the southwest. Another ridging high will result in further cloudy and rainy conditions along the southern to eastern coasts while upper-air instability may result in some thundershowers over the south eastern interior by Monday (6th).

Conditions in main agricultural production regions (30 April - 6 May)

Maize production region: Sunny and mild to warm conditions will prevail with little to no indication of frost. The eastern production area should be mild, with temperatures slightly above the mean. Here (in the east) maximum temperatures are expected to range between 18 and 25°C while minimums will be in the order of 6 - 11°C. Cloudy and cool conditions are possible over the far eastern parts on the 5th\, with fog patches or light showers in isolated areas.

The western production region is expected to be somewhat warmer, with average temperatures more strongly above the long-term mean. Over the western parts, maximum temperatures will range between 22 and 29°C while minimums will be in the order of 7 - 15°C. The wind should be northerly to northwesterly for the most part, becoming fresh at times in the west.

Cape Wine Lands and Ruens: This region will be mild to cool with some rain at times, but totals should remain below normal. Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the high teens to lower twenties throughout. A frontal system may bring light showers to the southern parts on Tuesday (30th). A stronger frontal system will result in strong westerly to north-westerly winds on Thursday (2nd), with some rain showers over most areas - falls should however be light for the most part. The wind will become fresh to strong southerly to south-easterly in the southwest during the weekend. Further light showers are possible over the southern parts (mainly Garden Route) by Monday (6th).


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