Rosch

Weaner calf prices up as a result of lower stocks available locally and in Namibia - South Africa

Prices in the domestic beef market were mixed this week.

The price of class C beef declined 0.4% week on week while the price for class A increased by 0.2%. Weaner calf prices increased by 3.1% compared to last week's prices supported by lower imports from Namibia. Namibia has lower weaner stocks available for export to SA due to the drought. The volume of local weaner calves available at auctions are declining. Compared to a year ago prices for class A and weaner calves are lower by 2.6% and 19.1% respectively. The number of animals slaughtered this week, according to RMAA, amounts to 12,170 which is 25.2% lower compared to last year.

US beef prices were mixed this week. Price for rump decreased by 18% and the price of strip loin declined by 34.1% for the week. Week on week prices for topside, chuck and brisket increased by 6.7%, 1.8% and 0.6% respectively. US live cattle prices are higher due to an uptick in beef demand. Grain prices have been falling drastically this week,however, this did not provide enough support in the feeder market, feeder cattle prices were lower. Feeder cattle prices declined due to a pessimistic trade outlook.

Beef: Prices in the domestic beef market were mixed this week. The price of class C beef declined 0.4% week on week while the price for class
A increased by 0.2%. Weaner calf prices increased by 3.1% compared to last week's prices supported by lower imports from Namibia. Namibia
has lower weaner stocks available for export to SA due to the drought. The volume of local weaner calves available at auctions are declining.
Compared to a year ago prices for class A and weaner calves are lower by 2.6% and 19.1% respectively. The number of animals slaughtered
this week, according to RMAA, amounts to 12,170 which is 25.2% lower compared to last year.
Mutton: Global lamb prices are expected to remain high underpinned by high world meat prices and low global supply. Based on seasonal trends, the domestic market is expecting prices of class A, class C and feeder lambs to follow an increasing trend for the month of July before declining from August into September. Lamb prices remain high in comparison to other protein alternatives. The demand for sheep meat is currently low as the South African consumer struggles to keep up with pricier sheep cuts in a stagnant economy. Domestic stocks are building up in cold storage due to the lower demand.
Pork: The US Market is still awaiting new US-China trade talks, a resolution would lift prices in the US livestock complex as a whole. The market was betting heavily on the trade negotiations that never came, this added to the bearish overtones in the hog market. There is little hope that US exports will improve in the medium term. The domestic pork market is expected to continue along an increasing trend for the next three months.
Poultry: Prices in the domestic poultry market decreased this week. The price of fresh whole birds declined by 0.8%, the price of frozen whole
birds decreased by 1.1% and Individually Quick Frozen chicken prices decreased by 0.8% week on week. Current prices of frozen whole birds
are 5.6% higher compared to prices a year ago and current IQF prices are 0.5% higher year on year. The import parity for chicken breasts increased by 2.3% compared to last week and declined by 11.3% year on year. The number of day-old chicks in the market remains low. The market expects through-put to be low in August. High feed costs stemming from high maize prices is putting pressure on the market. The monthend demand pick-up has not yet reflected as big as the market anticipated.
Hides:The current average hide price is R1.59/kg, this is 6.6% lower than last week’s price of R1.71/kg. The current price is 72.2% lower than
prices were a year ago. The hide market remains under pressure. Low demand and reduced consumer spending are contributing factors to the
low hide prices. Oversupply of hides in the global market coupled with weak international hide demand keeps the hide market sentiment bearish.

Rising female cattle slaughter rates in Australia indicates that herd liquidation is still in full swing. These ratios signal a serious decline in female cattle numbers, which in the next few years will impact calf numbers and cattle supplies. A reduction in Australia’s beef exports will reduce competion for New Zealand beef in the key exporting markets. This will support South African beef exports. China announced that they are lifting the ban of imported cloven hoofed animals and their products last week. This applies to all areas of South Africa, apart from Limpopo, the Ehlanzeni area of Mpumalanga and the Umkhanyakude area of Kwa-Zulu Natal.

The New Zealand lamb market experienced positive price movements this week with a 0.9% increase in the lamb price and a 0.6% increase in the ewe price. Supply is expected to remain low throughout winter and into early spring. Australia is forcasted to remain dry through to October. The ongoing widespread drought and high slaughter rates are driving exports.

Locally, the sheep meat market traded mixed this week as the price of class A increased by 1.6% week-on-week and the price for class C decreased by 0.6% week-on-week. The price for feeder lambs declined by 1.4% week on week. Lamb prices remain high in comparison to other protein alternatives. The number of animals slaughtered this week was 9,559 according to RMAA . This is a 40% decrease year on year. The price of Dorper skins remained unchanged at R36.00/skin, while the price of Merino skins declined by 0.9% from R36.33/skin to R36.00/skin week on week.

Global lamb prices are expected to remain high underpinned by high world meat prices and low global supply. Based on seasonal trends, the domestic market is expecting prices of class A, class C and feeder lambs to follow an increasing trend for the month of July before declining from August into September. Lamb prices remain high in comparison to other protein alternatives. The domestic demand for sheep meat is currently low as the South African consumer is struggles to keep up with pricier sheep cuts in a stagnant economy. Domestic stocks are building up in cold storage due to the lower demand.

The US pork market traded positive this week with the US pork carcass price increasing by 9% week-on-week. Prices for pork loin, rib and ham
increased by 1%, 3.4% and 13.3% respectively compared to prices a week ago. The US import parity for pork ribs increased by 2.9% and the import parity for ham increased 10% week on week. The US Market is still awaiting new US-China trade talks, a resolution would lift prices of the US livestock complex as a whole. The market was betting heavily on the trade negotiations that never came, this added to the bearish overtones in the hog market. There is little hope that US exports will improve in the medium term.

In the domestic pork market the price for porkers decreased by 1.4% while the price of baconers declined by only 0.65% week on week. Compared to a year ago, current prices are 15.1% higher for pork average contract price, 12.3% higher for porkers and 18.1% higher for baconers. The number of animals slaughtered this week of 29,174 head, according to RMAA, is 4% higher than last week. 

Pork imports to the United States are expected to decline 4% because of tight international supplies and higher pork import demand in China
generated by African Swine Fever. The US market is still awaiting new US-China trade talks, a resolution would lift prices of the US livestock complex as a whole. The domestic pork market is expected to continue along an increasing trend for the next three months.

This week the price for US whole birds increased by 0.1% compared to last week and the price of chicken breasts increased by 2.4% week on week. Chicken prices are surging in China as consumers shift to poultry as a cheaper alternative to pork amid the ASF outbreak. The price for fresh MDM increased by 1.2% week on week and the price for frozen MDM increased marginally by 0.14% compared to last week. The price for US leg quarters increased by 0.1% and the price for EU leg quarters increased by 1% week-on-week.

Prices in the domestic poultry market decreased this week. The price of fresh whole birds declined by 0.8%, the price of frozen whole birds decreased by 1.1% and Individually Quick Frozen chicken prices decreased by 0.8% week on week. Current prices of frozen whole birds are 5.6% higher compared to prices a year ago and current IQF prices are 0.5% higher year on year. The import parity for chicken breasts increased by 2.3% compared to last week and declined by 11.3% year on year. The number of day-old chicks in the market remians low. The market expects through-put to be low in August. High feed costs stemming from high maize prices is putting pressure on the market. The month-end demand pick-up has not yet reflected as big as the market anticipated.

International: Chicken prices are surging in China as consumers shift to poultry as a cheaper alternative to pork amid the ASF outbreak. Volatility in the US grains complex is causing uncertainty, therefore adding bearish overtones in the poultry market. SA: High local maize prices continue to put pressure on the intensive livestock sector. The industry is hoping the month-end demand will support prices in the week. The market anticipates an increase in domestic poultry prices from November onwards till the festive season based on seasonal trends.

The domestic hide market traded marginally negative this week with a 6.6% decrease from R1.71/kg to R1.59/kg in the calculated average hide price.

The current average hide price is R1.59/kg, this is 72.2% lower than prices were a year ago. The hide market remains under pressure. Low demand and reduced consumer spending are contributing factors to the low hide prices. Oversupply of hides in the global market coupled with weak international hide demand keeps the hide market sentiment bearish.

Beef carcass prices:
Class A: Weaner or A grade (0-18 months, Milk Teeth). Class C: (48 – 50 months, 8 Teeth). (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; beef carcass prices are a week delayed). Live weaner calf prices: Weaner (200-250kg) Average live weaner calf prices (Excluding VAT) at auctions and feedlot in the Northern Free State and auctions in the Central Free State (Bloemfontein) in the current week. AMIE carcass import parity price; wholesale delivered price of beef trimmings 80VL (Excluding VAT) (Source: Association of Meat Importers & Exporters; prices are a week delayed) Beef trimmings are pieces of meat remaining after steaks, roasts, and other cuts are removed. Beef trimmings are very often used to make ground beef. VL: Visual Lean
Sheep carcass prices:
Class A: lamb or A grade (0-12 months, Milk Teeth). Class C: (28 – 48 months, 8 Teeth). (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; sheep carcass prices are a week delayed). Feeder lamb (27-41kg) Average live feeder lamb prices (Excluding VAT) at auctions and feedlot in the Northern Free State and auctions in the Central Free State (Bloemfontein) in the current week. Dorper Skins: Price per skin (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association;
Dorper skin prices are a week delayed). Slaughter numbers: The total number of sheep (all grades) slaughtered in the week (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; slaughter numbers are a week behind). AMIE carcass import parity price for mutton ribs and shoulders: wholesale delivered price of mutton ribs and shoulders (Excluding VAT) (Source: Association of Meat Importers & Exporters; prices are a week delayed)
Pork carcass prices:
Porker: Average price for porker pigs (weighing 20-55.99kg) across the fat thickness levels (PORCUS) Baconer: Average price for baconer pigs (weighing 65-79.99kg) across the fat thickness levels (PORCUS). (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; pork carcass prices are a week delayed). Fat thickness level (PORCUS): P: <12mm, O: 13-17mm, R: 18-22mm, C: 23-27mm, U: 28-32mm, S: >32mm. Slaughter numbers: The total number of pigs (all grades) slaughtered in the week (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; slaughter numbers are a week behind). AMIE loin import parity price: wholesale delivered price of pork loins (Excluding VAT) (Source: Association of Meat Importers & Exporters; prices are a week delayed)


Farming Diary

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05.12.2020 - 05.15.2020

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06.17.2020 - 06.19.2020

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06.17.2020 - 06.19.2020

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