Agrilogics
  • The USDA attache in Beijing has slashed its estimate of Chinese imports of soybeans this year 9.5% to 85 million mt – bringing it more in line with Chinese estimates and front-running the Washington DC office's new projection to be published on Thursday.

  • Two-way agricultural trade between the United States and countries in Southern Africa reached a record $1.5 billion last year, according to most recent international ag trade report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

  • The USA is still of the best countries when it comes to farming. If you are a South African Farmers and you want to move to the USA- you need alot of rands to buy farm land in the USA.  Here is a few stats regarding a few states. 

    Southeastern Idaho and Utah

    In sunny, dry Utah and southeastern Idaho, land prices are holding firm, even in one of the most severe droughts in history. Wildfires have destroyed substantial amounts of fall and winter grazing and caused alfalfa hay prices to significantly increase. Hay prices are also high due to reduced production from the drought. This has maintained confidence in firm land prices and anticipated farm income for 2018 and 2019 due to decreasing hay inventories. The remainder of crop income continues to be low along with depressed dairy income. This is pressuring land prices, but so far, no significant decrease is apparent. Investment groups have discovered Idaho farmland opportunities, which has helped maintain price pressure.

    California

    One of the major factors affecting California agriculture is the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). SGMA will eventually reduce groundwater extraction in most or all of California in the future. The extent of the reduction is unknown, but there will be fallow ground in some areas because of the lack of water. Other areas appear to be nearly in balance with sustainable groundwater and might not need to fallow much land. SGMA has had at least two effects on land values. In areas where there is no water district and the water table is in critical overdraft, land values have declined to $9,000 per acre and could decline even further. For land with excellent water conditions, values have increased from $24,000 per acre to $27,000 per acre.

    Nebraska

    For the fourth consecutive year, the all-land value average across the state of Nebraska was about 4% lower than the average in the year prior. However, the Nebraska real estate market rate of decline has slowed from prior years. The biggest concerns in the market value of land will depend on the length of time tariffs are in place, suppressed crop prices and the state’s high property tax policies. Good-quality land is holding steady, and values for lower quality land are definitely softer and more variable.
    It’s important to note Nebraska has diverse land resource characteristics. Values for center pivot irrigated cropland across the state have declined by 3%, and those for dryland cropland range from $7,000 in the east to $670 in the west.

    Iowa

    Iowa’s crops are predicted to set new records this year. The middle one-third of the state has had the best run of weather all year and will see the highest yields. The northern side was wet earlier, and the southern side has been dry. However, better hybrids and improved management practices resulted in a great crop that developed ahead of normal.

    We’re entering “selling season” for farmland in western Iowa. Normally, about 75% of public land sales occur in the second half of the year with each month gaining volume into December. Most nonfamily or nontenant transactions are made at public auction. Consider that a truer test of this market area than nonexposed transactions. A search of “cropland only” sales in mid-August indicated more activity than the previous two years up to that point; expect that trend to continue for the year.

    As another item, acres per transaction are lower. With basically steady prices on good land, that means total dollars per transaction are also down by roughly 10%. Although the appetite to purchase additional land is strong, economic caution is persuading many to opt for smaller purchases with smaller financial commitments. Farmers typically buy about 75% of the cropland available.

    Minnesota

    The first half of 2018 saw a steady to slightly stronger land market for farms with high-quality soils, good drainage and excellent farmability. Farms with average soils, below-average drainage and less-than-perfect farmability were 3% to 6% lower in the first half of 2018. Weather conditions in June and July combined with lower commodity prices resulted in a slightly weaker market for prime-quality farms and more significant discounts for lower quality land. Prime-quality farms will bring $7,500 to $9,000 per acre, and average-quality farms are in the $5,500 to $7,500 range.

    In the fourth quarter of 2018, inventory of properties for sale is increasing. Final yield results, length of time tariffs are in place, local supply of land and interest rates will impact future values.

    Illinois

    We are in the midst of some unique times in Illinois agricultural real estate. “Unique” might be underestimating the situation. Illinois saw historically high prices in 2013/14 that have been softening ever since. Annual dips in values have been anywhere from 2% to 10% since then.

    I expect to see a continued decline in land values; it will only be a matter of how significant a decline. In 2017, my precise area of Illinois logged declines of 2% to 5% for Class A acreage. I suspect we will see a steeper decline for 2018 when it is all said and done. The two main issues providing weakness to the corn and soybean market, thus effecting land values, are the ongoing trade disputes and tariffs and the exceptional supply of grain we are producing.

    Mid-South

    The overall theme continues to be limited supply and strong demand in the mid-South. The recent USDA Land Values publication reported land values had seen a year-over-year increase of about 2.2%. However, when you look at irrigated land and land with high-class soils, the year’s growth pushes 3% with some isolated markets higher. High-quality properties are in strong demand and move quickly if priced properly.

    Recent sales have brought a range of $5,000 to $6,000 for premium properties, which are almost always 100% irrigated and highly improved. Prices then fall off by 15% to 20% for irrigated ground that needs further improvements and discounted again for unimproved dryland farms.

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture has paid out nearly $840 million to farmers to date as part of a promised $12 billion aid program rolled out by President Donald Trump last July to offset losses from the imposition of tariffs on American exports.

  • With harvest wrapping up this fall our attentions are being drawn to the next growing season already. Now’s the time to choose what seed hybrid to plant, which tillage method to implement, how much fertilizer to apply, and in some cases what source of that fertilizer to use.

  • U.S. farmers finishing their harvests are facing a big problem - where to put the mountain of grain they cannot sell to Chinese buyers.

  • This year farmers dedicated over 90% of soybean, corn and cotton acres to bioengineered seeds. Most were herbicide tolerant (HT), insect resistant (Bt) or a stack of both, according to USDA. 

  • Wet and wintry conditions in parts of the U.S. keep stalling the 2018 soybean harvest.

  • Banana imports to the U.S. and European Union increased year-on-year in the first few months of 2018, with many important Latin American suppliers shipping greater volumes.

  • As the end of November approaches, there are not many choices for buyers looking for lychees in the US. That will change shortly as the southern hemisphere season begins. One US importer of specialty fruits is about to begin their third South African lychee season.

  • Online food sales are growing, and beef marketers are using innovative ideas to put beef on consumers’ plates. “With online purchases, millennials are quickly changing how we are going to get food,” says Kari Underly, a master butcher in Chicago and owner of Range Partners a meat merchandising consultant.

  • Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to their highest level since August in early trade on Monday after President Xi pledged to buy agricultural products from the US at G20 talks over the weekend.

  • In rural Mecosta County, Mich., sits a near-windowless facility with a footprint about the size of Buckingham Palace. It’s just one of Nestlé’s roughly 100 bottled water factories in 34 countries around the world.

  • lot has changed since 2016. We are nearly two years into President Trump’s first term, the Democrats now control the House, and former President George H. W. Bush is dead. But politics aside, much about America has remained the same—including how and what we eat.

  • South Africa has a slim window to benefit from the European market before litchis from Madagascar arrive. The first litchis from Malelane are flown to Europe where France, in particular, through its long association with Indian Ocean islands, loves the fruit.

  •  Corn harvest samples from across the United States that have been submitted to the Alltech 37+ mycotoxin analytical services laboratory in 2018 show high levels of mycotoxins, particularly deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone, fusaric acid, fumonisin and HT-2, according to Alltech. 

  • With less than 1.2 per cent of all water on Earth available for humans to use, the world faces a 40 per cent shortfall in available global water supply by 2030, according to latest United Nations data.

  • There are many statistical measures that show how productive the U.S. is. Its economy is the largest in the world and grew at a rate of 4.1 percent last quarter, its fastest pace since 2014. The unemployment rate is near the lowest mark in a half century.

  • Heifer and beef cow slaughter levels have surged over the last year. USDA-NASS Livestock Slaughter report places total heifer slaughter under federal inspection up 7.3% above last year in data through October 2018.

  • The world’s grain markets face a year of challenges and uncertainty, with weather and politics likely to drive trade flows and prices, said the keynote speaker at the Global Grain Conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

Agrilogics

INTERNATIONAL NEWS and WEATHER of the day