When the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its preliminary estimates for the 2019/20 global grains and oilseeds production, the sentiment in the global agricultural market was that there would be large food supplies, and most analysts focused on other risks such as the US-China trade dispute.
We are currently witnessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, both on the local and global fronts. These effects will probably intensify in future.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy David Mabuza received a report from the advisory panel on land reform and agriculture on Tuesday
Southern Africa’s maize supply; this is one of the themes we have been consistently revisiting since the beginning of the year when it became clear that the region would need to import a large volume in the 2019/20 marketing year.
Zimbabwe’s 2019 maize crop is set to come in at half that of 2018 and Mozambique’s at a quarter. To make it worse, SA will probably not have much excess — and the result is fast-rising maize prices.
The available data suggests that Zimbabwe, Kenya and Mozambique will collectively need to import about 2.5 million tonnes of maize in the 2019/20 marketing year in order to satisfy the domestic demand in the respective countries.
The expansion in most agricultural subsectors in South Africa has been export-driven, particularly in the horticultural sector. This sector is labour-intensive, and the expansion also brought jobs.
In economics, natural experiments are hard to come by, but once in a while, you hit a jackpot without even paying a lottery ticket.
I am always amazed by how fast the sentiment can change in the global agriculture market. Just a few weeks ago, agricultural analysts across the world were concerned that the excessive wet weather conditions in the U.S. would lead fewer plantings and poor yields. This would have subsequently led to tight global maize supplies.
These past few days I spent a bit of time discussing maize production conditions in the Southern and Eastern African regions, but there are other important developments that are worth keeping an eye on here in South Africa.
My comments on the spreading of African Swine Fever in Asian countries have largely been on the market perspective – what the virus means for the global pork supply, consumer prices, etc.
The effects of changing the climate, which is, of course, a global challenge, have been felt in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia in the recent past. This has been through erratic rainfalls and more frequent occurrences of droughts and floods.
The effects of the changing climate, which is, of course, a global challenge, have been felt in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia in the recent past. This has been through erratic rainfalls and more frequent occurrences of droughts and floods.
Erratic weather conditions and more frequent droughts and floods are exacerbating uncertainty in the agricultural sector. While these have largely been a phenomenon of sub-Saharan Africa and Asian countries, the Americas are also starting to experience these harsh conditions.
If the U.S. maize crop was at an advanced stage of growth, the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report would have convinced us that the supplies will be in better shape than initially feared.
In the 2017/18 production season, North West average maize yields were at 4.4 tonnes per hectare, and the five-year average yield, up to 2017/18, is 3.7 tonnes per hectare (swayed down by the yield levels of the drought years – 2015-2016).
The minister of Agriculture - Thoko Didiza-
There was little of note in terms of new policy from the Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, Thoko Didiza, in her budget vote speech, but rather a sense of urgency to implementing land reform in a sustainable way.
Budding blueberry sector offers fruitful job prospects- South Africa .
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