As an export-oriented agricultural sector, South Africa must always pay attention to global developments and risks that could undercut its competitiveness in the world market.

The agricultural sector has grown measurably in the 30 years of democracy -South Africa is now ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index and is the only African country within the world’s top 40 agricultural exporters. The challenge now is how to make that growth more inclusive.

Despite all the challenges at the ports and various export markets, the South African agricultural sector has continued to realize excellent export activity. Total agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13,2 billion in 2023, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. This is stronger than our earlier expectations of a modest export activity this year.

This past week, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. In South Africa, a recent farmers' survey by Grain South Africa showed severe grain and oilseed production challenges in various patches across the country, which have probably worsened in the past week since the survey was completed on February 21.

The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months.

South Africa’s agricultural sector faced several challenges in 2023, but we didn’t think the overall annual performance would drop sharply.

Despite all the commendable government work in opening up export markets, helping to control the spread of animal diseases, and supporting smallholder farmers over the recent past, South Africa's agriculture has been operating from one crisis to another.

Recent electoral polls continue to suggest that no single political party will win an outright majority in South Africa's 2024 national elections due to take place on 29 May.

After a scorching summer season that led to significant crop failure, the El Niño cycle seems to have ended. The major weather forecasters, such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, recently confirmed this view.

With just over a week left before South African heads into the 2024 general elections, discussions in various agricultural gatherings are understandably centered on the theme of elections and possible outcomes.

The collaboration between Transnet, organized business and agriculture sector stakeholders to improve efficiency at South African ports must continue. Efficient logistics are the lifeblood of South African agriculture and other exporting sectors of the economy. Admittedly, the deciduous fruit industry faced numerous challenges at the port of Cape Town at the start of this year related to delays that proved costly to farming businesses.

With the voter counts now completed and the African National Congress (ANC) support having fallen sharply to just 40% support, some form of a coalition government will likely govern South Africa. The nature of such a coalition arrangement will likely emerge in the coming days and weeks.

As the dust settles following the outcome of the May 29 elections and the seventh administration begins its term, the next step will be realigning policy ideas under the Government of National Unity. With respect to agriculture, the major political parties in the Government of National Unity, namely the African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), appear to be broadly aligned in our assessment.

Iph’indlela (where is the way)? Some among us probably had this question in mind after seeing the Cabinet composition of South Africa’s seventh democratic administration. The splitting of the agriculture and land affairs portfolios into two distinct departments is one of the significant changes.

We are two months away from the start of the 2024/25 summer crop season. Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence.

Through the past 30 years of exceptional progress, South Africa's agriculture has confronted numerous challenges with varying impacts across subsectors. This past week presented three challenges whose impact will become clearer in the weeks ahead.

The national government departments, among other things, are primary policy-making bodies.

South Africa's 2024/25 winter crop season is underway. The start of the season has been somewhat harsh, with drier weather conditions around May and June in the Western Cape, followed by excessive rains since the beginning of July.

After the sharp increase in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural exports fell slightly on a year-on-year (y/y) basis in the second quarter.

South Africa's agricultural growth in the first thirty years of the democratic era has been supported, among other things, by two pivotal interventions. The first was a deliberate and concerted strategy to invest in genetics for crops, horticulture, and livestock.