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RENTEKOERSE GROOTSTE DWALING IN EKONOMIE- Suid Afrika

Fanie Brink -  Onafhanklike Landbou-ekonoom-  Afrikaans and English - INTEREST RATES BIGGEST DELUSION IN ECONOMY.

“Daar kan geen groter dwaling in die totale ekonomiese wetenskap wees as die aansprake van die sentrale banke, soos die Reserwebank, en die meeste ekonome in die wêreld dat rentekoersveranderings die inflasieskoers kan beheer, die waarde van die geldeenheid kan beskerm en ekonomiese groei kan bevorder nie,” sê Fanie Brink, ‘n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.

Hy het gereageer op die aankondiging vandag dat die Reserwebank sy terugkoopkoers met 0,25 basispunte (’n kwart persentasiepunt) verlaag het en gesê dat die inflasiekoers en waarde van die geldeenheid, asook ekonomiese groei, deur die werking van die mees basiese ekonomiese beginsels in die ekonomie bepaal word en geensins deur rentekoerse nie.

Die veranderings in rentekoerse speel ook glad nie so ’n belangrike rol in die ekonomie nie, terwyl daar absoluut geen bewyse bestaan vir die sentrale banke en die meeste ekonome se aansprake oor die totale oordrewe belangrike invloed van rentekoerse in die ekonomie nie. Die invloed van rentekoerse is in werklikheid weglaatbaar klein en nie betekenisvol nie.

“Die werklike feite is dat die inflasiekoers (prysvlakke) en die waarde van die geldeenheid deur al die plaaslike en internasionale politieke en ekonomiese faktore bepaal wat ’n invloed op die vraag na en aanbod van goedere en dienste, asook die waarde van die geldeenheid, respektiewelik, het.

Ekonomiese groei word deur die verandering in die winsgewendheid van elke indiwiduele bedryf in die primêre, sekondêre en tertiêre sektore van die ekonomie bepaal wat weer die daling of styging in elke bedryf se bruto produksiewaarde bepaal.

Hiervolgens word al die bedrywe se bydrae tot die totale Bruto Binnelandse Produk (BBP) van die land bereken waarvolgens die ekonomiese groeikoers dan bepaal word. Die verandering in die bruto produksiewaarde van elke bedryf is gevolglik hoogs gekorreleerd met die bydrae wat elke bedryf tot ekonomiese groei maak.”

Die winsmotief is in werklikheid die enigste drywer en skepper van ekonomiese groei, volgens Brink.

Winsgewendheid word, eerstens, deur die inset/uitset-prysverhouding en, tweedens, deur die doeltreffend waarmee die insette in uitsette omgeskakel word wat met die toepassing nuwe tegnologiese ontwikkelings verbeter kan word.

Eenvoudige statistiese ontledings bewys dat die veranderings in rentekoerse geensins die veranderings in die inflasiekoers en waarde van die geldeenheid, asook ekonomiese groei, kan verduidelik of verklaar nie.

“Die redes waarom die sentrale banke en die meeste ekonome steeds aan hierdie dwaling vasklou is nie net onverklaarbaar nie maar selfs baie misleidend,” sê Brink.

ENGLISH -INTEREST RATES BIGGEST DELUSION IN ECONOMY

"There can be no bigger delusion in the total economic science than the claims of central banks, such as the Reserve Bank, and most economists in the world that interest rate changes can control the inflation rate, protect the value currency and promote economic growth," says Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

He responded to the announcement today that the Reserve Bank has lowered its repurchase rate by 0,25 basis points (a quarter of a percentage point) and said that the inflation rate and the value of the currency, as well as economic growth, are determined by the most basic economic principles in the economy and not by interest rates.

The changes in interest rates also do not play such an important role in the economy, while there is absolutely no evidence for the claims of central banks and most economists for the exaggerated influence of interest rates in the economy. The influence of interest rates is actually negligibly small and insignificant.

"The reality is that the inflation rate (price levels) and the value of the currency are determine by all the local and international political and economic factors that have an effect on the supply and demand of goods and services, as well as the value of the currency, respectively.

Economic growth is determined by the changes in the profitability of each individual industry in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy, which in turn determines the changes in the gross production value of the contribution of each industry to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. The changes in the gross production value of each industry is therefore highly correlated with the contribution that each industry makes to economic growth.”

The profit motive is in fact the only driver and creator of economic growth, says Brink.

Profitability is, firstly, determined by input/output price ratio and, secondly, the efficiency with which inputs are converted into outputs that can be improved by the application of new technological developments.

Simple statistical analyses show that the changes in interest rates cannot be explained by the changes in the inflation and the value of the currency or economic growth.

"The reasons why the central banks and most economists are still clinging to this total delusion are not only inexplicable but even very misleading," Brink says.

18 July 2019
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