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African Swine Fever spreads through China

Beef: International and local beef markets traded positively on average this week. Volatility in the pork market is expected to support the beef
market in the coming weeks. Class C prices are expected to start increasing from May as winter approaches.
Mutton: Class A prices declined week-on-week by 0.9% while prices of class C and feeder lambs increased by 3.7% and 0.5% respectively.
The number of animals slaughtered this week is 11.9% lower than last week. Sheep meat prices are expected to remain fairly stable in April
and May and increase from June onwards as winter approaches.
Pork: The National Pork producers Council decided to practice extreme caution and announced the cancellation of the World Pork Expo this
year due to the continued spread of African Swine Fever in China. It is estimated that up to 200 million pigs in China could be culled or will die
from the disease resulting in a decline in production of 30%. Pork prices are expected to be highly volatile in the coming weeks. The African
Swine Fever that was detected on a game farm in the Ditsobotla district in the North West Province of South Africa on the 10th of April has
been confirmed as an isolated incident that doesn't pose any risk to the SA commercial pig industry.
Poultry: Local poultry prices increased week-on-week - fresh whole birds are up by 2.4%, frozen whole birds are up by 2.7% and Individually
Quick Frozen (IQF) are up by 2.4%. The declining yellow maize prices are good news for poultry producers as margins may increase.

Beef market trends
International beef market

International beef prices had a positive week overall with only prices of US brisket declining week-on-week. US beef chuck prices are up by 22% year-onyear.
It is expected that the beef market will be supported by the fluctuations in the pork prices due the African Swine Fever outbreak in China. US/China
trade negotiations are ongoing.

Week-on-week, class A prices increased by 1.9% and weaner calf prices increased by 1.6% supported by the strengthening of the Rand. Class C prices continue to decline and are 7.9% lower than a year ago. The import parity for beef trimmings has increased by 18.5% year-on-year.

Class C prices are expected to start increasing from May as winter approaches. The outcome of the elections on the 8th of May and the USDA Production Estimate on the 10th of May and news on a final USA/China trade deal can lead to price increases and higher prices for local producers.

Sheep meat market trends
International sheep meat market

New Zealand lamb prices increased slightly week-on-week, while ewe prices remained the same as last week. Import parity for ewes and lambs both declined week-on-week by approximately 3.3%. The prices of specific cuts week-on-week: mutton ribs increased by 1.9% while mutton shoulders declined by 0.9%. Class A prices declined week-on-week by 0.9% while prices of class C and feeder lambs increased by 3.7% and 0.5% respectively. The number of animals slaughtered this week is 11.9% lower than last week.

Pork market trends
International pork market

Week-on-week US pork loin prices were up 1.7% and rib prices were up 5.4%, while US ham prices were down 9.4%. The National Pork producers Council decided to practice extreme caution and announced the cancellation of the World Pork Expo this year due to the continued spread of African Swine Fever in China. It is estimated that up to 200 million pigs in China could be culled or will die from the disease resulting in a decline in production of by 30%. Pork prices are expected to be highly volatile in the coming weeks. Local pork prices were down this week despite the strengthening Rand. Prices of porkers were down by 6.6% and Baconer prices were down 4.9% week-on-week, slaughter numbers were also down this week. Year-on-year prices of porkers and baconers increased. African Swine Fever was detected on a game farm in the Ditsobotla district in the North West Province of South Africa on the 10th of April. SAPPO reported today that the African Swine Fever outbreak was an isolated incident and does not pose any risk to the SA commercial pig industry.

Poultry market trends
International poultry market

International poultry prices traded positively this week with the prices of US whole bird, breasts, and MDM (both fresh and frozen) increasing week-onweek. However, these prices are down year-on-year by between 3.6-11.1%. US Leg quarters declined week-on-week by 1.5%, but the price is up by 5.7% year-on-year. Local poultry prices increased week-on-week - fresh whole birds are up by 2.4%, frozen whole birds are up by 2.7% and Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) are up by 2.4%. The declining yellow maize prices are good news for poultry producers as margins may increase. Poultry prices are expected to decline steadily until June before picking up again in July; this is line with seasonal trends. There has been a report of avian influenza in China's Inner Mongolia region, an elderly man was found to be infected with the disease, no other cases have been reported. If an outbreak occurs is could have detrimental effects on the international poultry industry which may support local prices.

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