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OLD MUTUAL

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  • More rain is expected over especially the central to southern parts during the next few days and the entire maize-production region should receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

  • Flash floods may occur tomorrow over the Lowveld and escarpment of Mpumalanga and above-normal rainfall is expected in the maize-production areas for the remainder of the week.

  • Precipitation over the summer rainfall region was mostly limited to the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts during the last few days.

  • The last week may certainly go through as one of the driest weeks during late summer/early autumn over the central parts of the country.


  • Warmer conditions ahead over the interior- Widespread rain occurred over most of the summer rainfall region, focusing especially on the central parts of the country and parts of the winter rainfall region. Most of the rain occurred from the 8th. Included was the western maize-production region where very welcome rain occurred during a critical phase of the growing season.

  • Mostly dry conditions expected over the interior -Isolated to scattered thundershowers occurred over most of the interior during the last few days, with somewhat more widespread falls Saturday and Sunday over the Free State and southern North West.

  • The rainy conditions will continue over the central to eastern parts until mid-week, contributing to record-breaking rainfall totals over large parts of the Free State and North West together with parts of the Eastern Cape and KZN.

  • The sunny and mild to warm conditions across the interior that developed late last week is set to continue for the next few days.
    pixabay.com
     
    AgriSeker

    30 April 2019

    The maize-production region will experience temperatures in the normal to above-normal range with abundant sunshine. Temperatures over the interior will increase gradually through the week until the weekend. Two frontal systems may however result in winter rainfall over the southern parts. Inclement weather may dominate the southern parts during the weekend.

    According to current forecasts, cold, wet and windy conditions may spread over the Cape provinces from late Thursday, but the central to northern and eastern interior is expected to remain relatively warm, dominated by anticyclonic flow - according to current forecasts. There are early indications of the possible development of another rain-producing system by next week over the interior - the outlook is still very uncertain this far ahead.

    The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:

    • General:
    o The interior is expected to by dry for the most part.
    o Near-normal rainfall is expected over the winter rainfall region as well as the southern to eastern coastal belt and Eastern Cape. 
    o Temperatures over the interior will on average remain in the normal to above-normal range. Over the central parts of the country, average temperatures are expected to be 2 - 6°C above the long-term mean. 
    o Temperatures over the winter rainfall region will be near normal to below normal. 
    o There is no indication of severe frost given the expected weather conditions during the next few days. 
    o Relatively warm conditions with persistent northwesterly winds will be present over the central to northern and northwestern interior during most of the period. 
    o Fresh to strong southeasterlies will occur over the southwestern parts during the weekend. 
    • Rainfall: 
    o No rain is expected over the interior until at least the weekend.
    o Light showers are possible over the winter rainfall region on Tuesday (30th), mainly in the south. Light showers may spread along the southern to eastern coastal belt on Wednesday (1st). 
    o Showers are possible over the winter rainfall region on Thursday (2nd). 
    o Showers will spread along the southern and eastern coastal belt and adjacent interior on Friday (3rd) and Saturday (4th), with fresh to strong southwesterlies becoming easterly later. Light showers and drizzle will spread along the northeastern escarpment on Sunday (5th). 
    o Showers or thundershowers may develop over the eastern parts (KZN, eastern Free State) by Monday (6th) while scattered showers are possible along the southern to eastern coastal belt and adjacent interior according to current outlooks. 
    • Temperatures:
    o Hot, berg-wind conditions are possible over the southeastern parts (mainly the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape) on Tuesday (30th) and Thursday (2nd). 
    o Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 22 and 29 °C while minimums will be in the order of 7 - 15° 
    o Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 21 and 27°C while minimums will be in the order of 6 - 11°C. 
    o Minimum and maximum temperatures across the interior (including the maize-production region) will continue to increase gradually during the next few days. 
    o It will be very hot over the Loweveld and northern KZN on Friday (3rd). 
    o Cool to cold conditions with fresh southerly to southeasterly winds will invade the southern parts from Friday onwards. 
    o It will be warm to hot and windy over most of the interior of the Northern Cape throughout the period, except for the southern to western parts where it will become cool to cold and windy from Friday (3rd) into the weekend. 

    Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days

    Anticyclonic circulation over the interior, with the center of the high towards the east at the surface, will result in gradual warming across most of the interior. Between the high-pressure center to the northeast and some frontal activity over the southwestern parts, a northwesterly flow will develop and is expected to persist for the most part over the interior, especially the central to western interior. The northwesterly flow across the interior may also result in hot berg-wind conditions over especially the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape on Tuesday (30th) and Thursday (2nd).

    A cold front will bring isolated light showers to the winter rainfall region and Garden Route on Tuesday (30th). Another, stronger frontal system will reach the southern parts by Thursday (2nd).

  • Summary
    Rain expected over southern parts, temperatures remain above normal.

  • Warm conditions to continue- The next few days will see a continuation of unseasonably warm weather over the interior, including the maize production areas, with little to no incidence of frost. Sunny to partly cloudy and warm weather will persist over the interior.

  • Warmer than normal conditions will continue over the interior during the next few days.

  • Current conditions
    Over South Africa, it is clear that winter rain lingered somewhat longer than usual over the winter rainfall region with abovenormal rainfall in October – including significant rainfall resulting in dam levels making a remarkable recovery

  • More scattered to widespread showers and thundershowers are expected over the summer rainfall region during the remainder of the week.

  • The next few days will be dry and warm to hot over most parts apart from some thundershowers over the central to south eastern parts and Eastern Highveld.
    The thundershowers over the central parts will only result in light falls but will probably be associated with gusty winds/dust storms. By early next week, current forecasts indicate scattered to widespread thundershowers over large parts of the summer rainfall region, when atmospheric circulation patterns are expected to become more favourable following the current hot, anticyclonic conditions.

    The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:

    • General:

    o For much of the period, including the weekend, it will be warm to hot and dry for the most part.
    o Scattered to widespread thundershowers are possible from Monday (2nd) into next week over the summer rainfall region according to current forecasts.
    o Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the eastern parts during the next few days, even though most of the rain will only occur early next week.
    o Below-normal rainfall is expected over the western and southern parts of the country.
    o The southern parts of the country will on average remain cooler than normal while temperatures over the northern parts will be near normal to above normal on average. This pattern is consistent with conditions during the past few weeks.
    o Fresh to strong southeasterlies are expected over the southwestern parts from Monday (2nd).

    • Rainfall:

    o Isolated thundershowers are possible over the central to south eastern until the weekend. Over the interior, these will be associated with strong and gusty winds, while only light falls are expected.
    o Isolated thundershowers are also possible over the eastern Highveld until Friday (29th). o Widespread thundershowers are possible from Monday (2nd) over most of the summer rainfall region according to current forecasts. Some of these may have a tendency to become severe.
    o Light showers are possible over the winter rainfall region and Garden Route on Friday (29th) and Saturday (30th) as well as Monday (2nd)

    • Temperatures:

    o Warm, dry and windy conditions may occur over the interior of the Northern Cape and southwestern parts of the Free State and surrounding areas during most of the period.
    o Hot, dry and windy conditions will also dominate the interiors of the Western and Eastern Cape until Friday (29th).
    o Hot and humid conditions are also expected over northern KZN until Saturday (30th).
    o Very hot conditions are expected over the Limpopo River Valley and Lowveld of Mpumalanga and Limpopo until Tuesday (3rd).
    o It will become cooler with south westerly winds over the southwestern to southern parts of the country (minimum temperatures my decrease into the single digits in high-lying areas) by the weekend, with cooler conditions remaining in place until next week over these areas.
    o High temperatures over the northern to eastern areas during the current week will be replaced by normal to below normal temperatures from early next week.

    Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days

    Conditions in main agricultural production regions (27 November - 3 December)

    Maize production region:

    Warm to hot conditions with little to no rain will dominate until the weekend. Isolated thundershowers will occur during this period over mainly the southern parts (and in the east until Friday (30th)), probably only producing light falls but possibly associated with dust storms. Widespread thundershowers are possible from Monday (2nd) when temperatures will be lower.

    Maximum temperatures over the western maize production region will range between 30 and 35 °C (lower temperatures towards next week) while minimums will be in the order of 21 - 24°C. Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 27 and 33°C (cooler conditions by next week when maximum temperatures could fall into the high teens by mid-week according to current forecasts) while minimums will be in the order of 14 - 20°C. Cape Wine Lands and Ruens: Following hot conditions initially (Thursday 27th), cooler conditions will set in and remain in place into next week. Strong south easterlies are possible in the southwest from Monday (2nd) onwards. Light showers are possible on Friday (29th) and Monday (2nd).

    Possible extreme conditions - relevant to agriculture

    The South African Weather Service issues warnings for any severe weather that may develop, based on much more information (and in near-real time) than the output of one single weather model (GFS atmospheric model - Centre for OceanLand-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES) - http://Wxmaps.org) considered here in the beginning of a week-long (starting 27 November) period. It is therefore advised to keep track of warnings that may be issued by the SAWS (www.weathersa.co.za) as the week progresses.

    According to current model projections (GFS model) of weather conditions during the coming week, the following may be deduced:
    • Thundershowers over the central interior until the weekend may be associated with dust storms.
    • Hot and humid conditions are expected over the Lowveld of Mpumalanga and Limpopo and the Limpopo River Valley until Tuesday (3rd).
    • Hot, dry and windy conditions over the interior of the Northern Cape and southwestern parts of the Free State (and surrounding areas) on most days may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires where vegetation is dry.
    • Very hot and windy conditions over the interiors of the Western and Eastern Cape Provinces until Friday (29th) may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires where vegetation is dry.
    • Strong south easterlies are possible along the southwestern coastal areas from Monday (2nd) onwards.
    • Thundershowers over the central to eastern parts by next week may have a tendency to become severe.

  • Widespread rain and thundershowers are possible over the central to northeastern parts especially during the rest of the week and into the weekend.

  • The next few days will be warm and relatively dry over most parts. Isolated thundershowers are possible over the central interior and Highveld on most days, but the high temperatures and the isolated nature of rainfall events will result in some drying during the period.

  • Widespread rain is expected over the summer rainfall region during the next few days. The area of expected above-normal rainfall for this time of the year should include the entire maize-production region.

  • Yet another rain-bearing system will result in widespread precipitation over much of the summer rainfall region during the next few days, especially over the maize-production areas.

  • During the next few days, there will be two periods with scattered to widespread thundershowers.

  • Conditions during autumn tends to be pleasant over the interior of South Africa – especially in the absence of early outbreaks of cold conditions.

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