This article summarises recent rainfall statistics and presents a quantification of the impact of excessive rainfall impact on summer crop production in the 2021/2022 season. With an initial estimated maize harvest of 12.5 million tonnes plus high stock levels at the beginning of the marketing season, South Africa should have sufficient maize to meet local consumption (approx. 12 million tonnes) as well as the traditional import requirements of our neighbours. Hence, large scale price gains will most likely be mitigated and prices will tend to trade closer to export parity levels, unless production conditions deteriorate further and crop estimates are reduced below current expectation. Export parity price levels are determined by the exchange rate and global prices. Any movement of these drivers will also have an influence on domestic prices levels. The rainfall to date for the summer grain production region in South Africa has been amongst the highest in more than a century, while the “season to date” average rainfall (the sum of October, November and December) of 338.66mm is very close the maximum of 353.66mm recorded in 1996 - Here is the full report.
