A third of all people living in sub-Saharan Africa face severe food insecurity. They do not have enough money, or the resources to grow food, and regularly go for more than a day without food.

My good friend, Michael McDougall, at EDF Man Capital Markets, raised an important point in his daily newsletter – malnutrition.

Africa has been exporting most of its farm produce raw, and experts say that by exporting raw materials, the continent is exporting jobs as well as money which could be saved to improve the welfare of its people.

Over the past few days, the complex nature of South Africa’s food supply chains has come under the spotlight.

These supply chains are a web of formal and informal interactions between agricultural inputs, logistics, farmers, spazas, bakkie traders, processing plants, shipping, retailing, biosecurity and more. Despite the reference to essential goods and services that need to continue to operate, the announcement by President Ramaphosa of a 21-day lockdown triggered a sharp rise in purchases of food that, according to various retailers, exceeded the volumes that are typically sold over Christmas. Furthermore, the lockdown has caused significant confusion at various nodes in the value chain with regards to what is classified as an essential service and what is not. Initially informal traders were excluded from the list of essential services, which caused a major bottleneck in access to food in many poor neighbourhoods, especially in rural areas. This was rectified in the second amendment to the Regulations on 2 April, when the relevant definition of essential services was changed to include “grocery stores and wholesale produce markets, including spaza shops and informal food traders, with written permission from a municipal authority to operate being required in respect of informal food traders”. This is an important amendment, which allows informal traders such as street hawkers to operate again, but requires a coordinated implementation plan with regard to the issuing of permits and the enforcement of health and safety requirements within essential but informal food trading. On-going cooperation between government and private sector is required to efficiently and effectively remove bottlenecks and enable the continuous operation of all essential goods and service delivery within the food value chain to ensure food security during COVID-19 lockdown.

In its first two briefs on the impact of COVID-19, BFAP provided an overview of the South African food system and food expenditure patterns by consumers respectively. This brief sheds light on the complex nature of the food supply chain and the extent of the essential goods and services required for its effective operation. In his initial speech, the President referred to some of the broader sectors that are exempt from restrictions, but did not provide a comprehensive list of all included sectors at the time. Essential goods or services can generally be defined as those that: • May be bought or acquired primarily for personal, family or household purposes, including but not limited to medicines, food, water or fuel; and • Are necessary for the health, safety, or welfare of consumers. Essential goods and services as defined in Section 213 of the Labour Relations Act (Act No 66 of 1995), and designated in terms of section 71(8) of the Act, are specified as power, health, transport, water and sanitation. For the purpose of the COVID-19 lockdown, an amendment of regulations to the Disaster Management Act (2002) provided increased clarity of food related ‘essential goods’ and these were outlined as: • Any food product, including non-alcoholic beverages; • Animal food; and • Chemicals, packaging and ancillary products used in the production of any food product. April 3, 2020 Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) 477 Witherite road, Agri hub office park Die Wilgers, 0186 Pretoria www.bfap.co.za This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Although the food and related products stated above were included in the amended list of essential goods, the list of “essential services” related to food and food production was less comprehensive.

The essential services classification needs to extend across agriculture and not just food, as agricultural value chains are intertwined and if not managed carefully, will have a direct and negative impact on food security. For instance, cotton and wool are not included as essential products, but they provide cashflow to farmers, and are critical in the sustainability of livelihoods and food security, as, without cash flow, field crops cannot be planted. Both sectors are also critical components of the animal feed industry. It is therefore important that cotton and wool (export) trade be opened in order to support farm incomes. The export of cotton and wool also requires port services in order to facilitate the country’s exports. The foregoing underlines the fact that the “food industry” in South Africa is complex and includes a number of support services which, directly and indirectly, enable the efficient and effective operations of the holistic food value chain, and therefore fits the fundamental definition of essential services. By implication, such services must also be authorised to function normally for the food value chain to continue functioning in an effective manner. From a food supply chain perspective, essential goods and services entail all activities and processes which support the production, processing, distribution, consumption, and waste disposal of food in the system.

The following essential food-related supply chains remain operational: • Agricultural and food-related operations, and all agricultural input suppliers and support services; • Fish operations; • Manufacturing facilities for the processing of food, beverages and essential products; • Warehousing, transport and logistics for food, essential products, and health-related goods; • Ports, roads and rail networks, which will remain open to facilitate the import and export of essential products. It is critical that related inspection and regulatory/ documentation control systems and processes operate efficiently and effectively; • Food outlets – including retail, wholesale, spaza shops, malls for food, and essential products. Figure 1 outlines the broad framework of South Africa’s food supply chain and its various components, including the essential services that ensure the smooth functioning of the country’s food system. It includes multiple cross-cutting services such as electricity, banking, telecommunications, water, security, logistics, sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) functions, and waste disposal, among others. Such services are required across the various components of the food supply chain. Transport, as well as health and safety, are pre-requisites that are essential at each node of the food supply chain; critical additional services at ports include administrative functions that ensure documentation and procedures are adhered to for exported and imported essential goods.

FULL REPORT on the LINK ABOVE

Since its emergence more than two years ago, COVID-19 has reached nearly every corner of the globe. It has infected hundreds of millions of people, and overwhelmed health systems worldwide. But its impact goes beyond its direct health consequences.

Measures to contain its spread – such as travel restrictions and lockdowns – have also had severe consequences for economies and food systems worldwide.

Despite the global impact, the consequences of pandemic-related restrictions vary widely among individuals. In the West, massive stimulus spending has helped ease the economic burden of the lockdowns. In low and middle-income countries, steep drops in employment and income have rivalled or exceeded those in richer nations.

But most people in poor countries have received no financial support and have few or no savings to fall back on.

Research shows that a disproportionate burden of pandemic-related restrictions has fallen on the world’s poorest. This has raised the question of how to best adapt the mitigation efforts to different types of economies.

My colleagues and I sought to shed light on this issue. Our research examined the impact of pandemic restrictions on smallholder farmers in low and middle-income countries.

In line with existing research on the negative impacts of pandemic restrictions, farmers in low and middle income countries reported that COVID-19 measures negatively affected food purchase, income generation and access to inputs.

Food security
The focus on smallholder farmers is pertinent. This group contributes most of the food production in many countries. They are also vulnerable to food insecurity and poverty.

We conducted more than 9,000 interviews with smallholder farmers from Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam and Zambia. The seven countries reflect the diversity of COVID-19 containment measures, and all rely heavily on smallholders for food supply.

The containment measures ranged from no restrictions in Burundi and Tanzania, to closures of public spaces, mandatory quarantines, and travel restrictions in Rwanda and Vietnam. This diversity allowed us to assess how the severity of COVID-19 restrictions affected smallholder farmers’ livelihoods and food security.

Our findings also indicate that the severity of these impacts was directly related to the stringency of the measures.

For countries with the strictest control, up to 80% of smallholder households reported major disruptions, largely in their ability to purchase food due to high prices and closed markets.

Under stringent regulations, most smallholders also reported income reductions averaging 50%. The drop was due to few work opportunities, low prices for agricultural goods, and difficulty in accessing markets. This affected households with off-farm and on-farm incomes alike.

   Potential hunger crisis looms- World

In contrast, negative economic and food security outcomes were less frequent and less severe in locations with relaxed measures. Only around 20% of smallholders reported negative outcomes in Burundi and Tanzania. This supports the growing connection between stringent restrictions and rising poverty and food insecurity in vulnerable areas.

Government support
Reports of lost income and difficulty in purchasing food are not unique to smallholder farmers in low and middle-income countries. People around the world have either lost jobs or seen empty grocery store shelves when the pandemic first hit.

What separates the experience of smallholder farmers of poor countries from their counterparts in the West is government aid, and the resulting coping tactics.

The overwhelming majority of farmers we interviewed said they had received no official aid. Unable to turn to their government for support, up to 80% of smallholder farmers in areas under stringent control were forced to reduce their food consumption. Other coping methods included the sale of livestock, unplanned crop sale, drawing down of savings and taking risky loans.

These findings have profound implications because coping methods reduce the buffering capacity of smallholder households and make them vulnerable to future shocks. In many poor smallholder households, coping ways likely forced them into deprivation.

Overall, our results draw further attention to the policy choice between lives and livelihoods. It reveals an almost impossible trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and losing lives due to deprivation.

Our findings are supported by recent economic analyses showing that the cost-benefit ratio of COVID-19 measures can differ significantly by country. The optimal lockdown is likely to be less stringent in low and middle-income countries seeking to prevent deprivation.

Researchers are not the only ones catching on to this. A recent media analysis of how the pandemic was discussed in five African countries shows that popular media recognised the food insecurity impacts long before many of the scientific studies had been published. Popular narratives framed the situation as a balance between virus containment and food security. This eventually influenced governments to adapt official policy responses and loosen restrictions.

In other words, the world is slowly coming to the realisation that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the COVID-19 pandemic. Research shows that stringent measures can successfully prevent excess deaths. But if these measures are introduced in poor countries without the requisite financial assistance, they can undermine the health of the very people they intended to protect.

What works for poor countries
Therefore, the suitability of any crisis mitigation depends on the needs of local populations as well as the capacity of local government to support them.

Crisis mitigation must guard against the exhaustion of buffering capacity in vulnerable households. Potential policy measures to ensure this include tiered mobility restrictions that allow travel for economic reasons, short-term price guarantees to stabilise the food system, and direct aid to rural households.

As governments fight this pandemic and prepare for future crises, they can no longer shy away from thinking through the trade-offs between restrictions and well-being. When COVID-19 struck, we were not prepared to make informed decisions about the trade-offs. The world’s poorest have borne the brunt of the consequences.

Our latest study is part of a growing body of research that provide tools we need to confront these trade-offs. By considering costs and benefits to local populations, policymakers can craft measures that save lives and protect livelihoods of the most vulnerable.

Africa’s agricultural productivity has long lagged behind the rest of the world. Crop yields grew across Asia from 1960 onwards, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, but stagnated in Africa where cereal yields stayed largely unchanged for the 30 years of the green revolution.

Symbolic for the fall harvest, the pumpkin has become an icon for food during this time of the year and can be found almost everywhere you look.

Insects could be a game changer in the race to combat food insecurity and achieve zero hunger – the theme of this year’s World Food Day.

October 16 marked World Food Day, commemorating the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. Across the world, this day offers an opportunity for countries to assess their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. One of the measures that some often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The Economist's Global Food Security Index, which Corteva sponsors. This latest index ranks South Africa at 59 out of 113 countries, an improvement from the 70th position in 2021. This places South Africa as the most food-secure country in the African continent, followed by Tunisia at 62nd.

This improvement is commendable. When looking at the index scoring's technical position, it becomes clear why South Africa's food security ranking has improved. South Africa's scoring came in at 61,4, up from 57,8 in 2021. This shows that South Africa's progress in the Global Food Security Index is not merely because other countries have regressed, particularly since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which increased global food prices but that there has been an actual improvement in its own underlying conditions.

The Global Food Security Index comprises four subindices, namely; (1) food affordability, (2) food availability, (3) food quality and safety, and (4) sustainability and adaption. The affordability and availability subindices carry a combined weighting of two-thirds of the total index. The affordability subindex includes the change in average food costs, agricultural trade, food safety net programs, and funding for food safety net programs. Meanwhile, the availability subindex includes the sufficiency of supply, agricultural infrastructure, and political and social barriers to food.

In 2022, South Africa experienced a mild deterioration in the food affordability subindex of 7 points. Meanwhile, the rest of the other subindices improved significantly. This decline in the affordability subindex is unsurprising as the country has witnessed a broad acceleration in consumer food price inflation since the start of the year. South Africa's consumer food price inflation averaged 8,0% y/y in the first eight months of 2022, from 6,5% over the same period in 2021. Still, what is worth emphasizing is that this challenge speaks to the rising cost of food in an environment of generally high unemployment.

Notably, the rise in food prices is a global phenomenon and not unique to South Africa. The dryness in South America, which negatively affected the crops in the 2021/22 production season, combined with growing demand for oilseeds and grains in China, and higher shipping costs, and recently, the Russia-Ukraine war, are some of the factors that have underpinned the global food price inflation surge. This, in turn, lifted prices in South Africa, despite the large domestic agricultural harvests in the past three seasons.

Nevertheless, global food prices have come off the levels we saw in the months immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine. For example, in September 2022, the FAO's Global Food Price Index was down by 1% from the previous month. This marked a sixth monthly decline and was underpinned by the deterioration in the prices of vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products. This means that affordability for all countries has far improved from the third quarter of the year. Still, the current price levels are higher than in 2021. For example, the FAO's Global Food Price Index is still 6% up from September 2021. Another key point to emphasize is that food prices were already elevated in 2021 due to disruptions in the supply chains, drought in South America, and increased demand for grains in China, amongst other factors.

A major issue to keep in mind when observing global agricultural indices, such as the Global Food Security Index, is that subjectivity can never be fully eliminated from the authors' judgment. Resource constraints can hinder objective data collection on the ground in each country, and they sometimes rely on blueprint models that might not be site specific. Sources of bias can stem from inconsistency in data quality, frequency and reliability across all countries. The weightings and rankings are also tricky because they must be tailored to suit different socio-economic contexts.

Still, the key message is that South Africa is in a better place regarding food security and leading the continent. This does not mean there should be complacency. South Africa will need to continue improving food security through expansion in agricultural production and job creation in various sectors of the economy. As we have previously stated, at a technical level, the ideas of expanding agriculture and agro-processing capacity to boost growth and job creation were well established as far back as in the National Development Plan in 2012. They were again highlighted in the 2019 National Treasury paper and, most recently, in the 2022 Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan.

These include expanding agricultural activity in the former homelands and government land, enhancing government-commodity organizations' partnerships in extension services, investment in the network industries (water, electricity and road infrastructure), port infrastructure, and state laboratories. Some interventions are more regulation-focused and therefore do not require significant capital spending by the government, although these still need institutional capacity building. Such regulatory interventions include modernizing regulations such as the Fertilizers, Farm Feeds, Seeds and Remedies Act 36 of 1947, with which many role players in agriculture continue to express dissatisfaction. The Agricultural Product Standards Act's enforcement to ensure that the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development leads the implementation and does not assign it to third parties is another critical intervention that could be explored. Regarding regional focus, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, the most food-insecure provinces, also have vast tracts of underutilized land. These provinces should be a priority in agricultural development plans. With a commercial focus where conditions permit, agriculture improvement would help job creation and household food security in South Africa.

Weekly highlights

Kenya’s decision to open the door to GM maize is a good omen

In the first week of October 2022, Kenya lifted the ban on the cultivation and importing of genetically modified (GM) white maize. This change is in response to growing food insecurity in the country. Kenya has struggled with drought in the recent past and remains a net importer of maize. Still, this adjustment doesn’t mean the borders are automatically open, there will be an assessment of each GM trait by the Kenyan Biosafety Authority before actual imports and cultivation can occur. Assuming some of this scientific legwork has already been done, we could see imports start in the next few months or a year.

If the work can be completed in months, this could save Kenya some trouble. In the 2022/23 season, Kenya needs to import a substantial volume of maize, estimated at about 700 000 tonnes. This is roughly unchanged from the previous season, which also posted poor domestic production. In the 2021/22 season several sub-Saharan African countries, including Zambia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and South Africa, had ample maize harvests. This made it easy for them to meet Kenya’s import needs, with Tanzania and Zambia leading the way. However, this year things are different. Tanzania’s maize harvest is down roughly 16% year on year to 5.9-million tonnes due to sparse rainfall at the start of the season combined with armyworm infestations and reduced fertiliser usage in some regions because of prohibitively high prices.

The fall in production and firmer domestic consumption mean Tanzania will have less maize to export. Tanzania’s available maize for export is about 100 000 tonnes. This is well below the previous season’s exports of 800 000 tonnes, which saved Kenya when the country was most in need of maize. The country in the region with the most abundant supply of maize at present is South Africa, whose maize exports for the 2022/23 season are forecast at 3,5-million tonnes. South Africa struggled to access the Kenyan market for many years because of its ban on imports of GM products. But this change in regulations offers a new opportunity for South African maize exporters (provided the Kenyan Biosafety Authority gets its ducks in a row soon).

In future, the liberalisation of the Kenyan seed market should benefit its farmers in the same way as in South Africa, Brazil and the US. In fact, the sentiment towards the cultivation and importation of GM crops is changing worldwide, partly because of the global food crisis and countries’ efforts to boost domestic production. For example, at the beginning of June the Chinese National Crop Variety Approval Committee released two standards that clear the path for cultivating GM crops. Now that this hurdle has been cleared, the commercialisation of GM crops in China is a real possibility. The EU is also reviewing its regulations on cultivating and importing GM crops, an essential step in a region that has long had an anti-GM stance.

South Africa was an early adopter of GM technologies. We began planting GM maize seeds in the 2001/2002 season. Before their introduction, average maize yields in South Africa were about 2,4 tonnes per hectare. This has increased to an average of 5,6 tonnes per hectare in the 2020/2021 production season. Meanwhile, the sub-Saharan African maize yields remain low, averaging below 2,0 tonnes per hectare. While yields are also influenced by improved germplasm (enabled by non-GM biotechnology) and improved low and no-till production methods (facilitated through herbicide-tolerant GM technology), other benefits include labour savings and reduced insecticide use, as well as enhanced weed and pest control. With Kenya struggling to meet its annual maize needs, using new technologies, GM seeds and other means should be an avenue to boost production in future.

Data releases this week

We start the week with a global focus, and today the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish its Weekly US Crop Progress data. In these data, our focus is on the US crop-growing conditions as the season progresses, and the harvest has started. This data also helps us form a view of the crop quality in the US. In the previous release, in the week of 09 October 2022, about 54% of the maize crop was rated good/excellent, which is the same level as the previous week. Importantly, this is down by 6% from the same week a year ago. This general decline is mainly explained by the drier weather conditions in some States over a few couple of months.

Moreover, about 31% of the crop had already been harvested, slightly behind last year's pace of 39% in the same week. Meanwhile, about 57% of the soybean crop was rated good/excellent, also unchanged from the previous week. This is down by 2% from the previous year's rating in the same week. In terms of the harvest, about 44% of the crop had already been harvested, compared with 47% in the same week last year. In addition, the USDA will release the US Weekly Export Sales data on Thursday.

On the domestic front, on Wednesday, SAGIS will release the Weekly Producer Deliveries data for 14 October 2022. This data will help us get insight into the size of the crop as harvesting has been recently completed in most regions of the country. In the previous release of the week of 07 October, about 13,7 million tonnes of maize had already been delivered to commercial silos, out of the expected harvest of 15,3 million tonnes. In the same week, about 2,1 million tonnes of soybeans had already been delivered to commercial silos out of the expected harvest of 2,2 million tonnes. Moreover, 832 610 tonnes of sunflower seed had already been delivered on the same day out of the expected harvest of 845 550 tonnes.

On Thursday, SAGIS will publish the Weekly Grain Trade data for 14 October 2022. In the previous release on 07 October 2022, which was the 23rd week of South Africa's 2022/23 maize marketing year, the weekly exports amounted to 58 514 tonnes. About 42% of this went to Japan, 40% to Taiwan, and the rest to the Southern Africa region. This brought the total 2022/23 exports to 1,9 million tonnes out of the seasonal export forecast of 3,5 million. This is slightly down from 4,1 million tonnes in the past season due to an expected reduction in the harvest.

South Africa is a net wheat importer, and 07 October was the first week of the 2022/23 marketing year. The total imports are now 44 406 tonnes, from Australia, Germany and Poland. The seasonal import forecast is 1,53 million tonnes, slightly down from 1,58 million tonnes in the previous season. In the 2021/22 season, the major wheat suppliers are Argentina, Lithuania, Brazil, Australia, Poland, Latvia and the US. As we stated in our previous notes, if one looks into South Africa's wheat imports data for the past five years, Russia was one of the major wheat suppliers, accounting for an average share of 26% yearly.

“We have a habit where before one tastes the food, we are reaching for the salt, we have to change our thinking on how much you need to make a meal tasty. This mixed with other behaviours opens the risk to high blood pressure,” said Dr Noluthando Nematswerani, Chief Clinical Officer at Discovery Health.

High blood pressure is when the pressure in your blood vessels is too high (140/90 mmHg or higher). It is common but can be serious if neglected or not properly treated.

Hypertension is when someone’s blood pressure is consistently higher than normal. (Graphic: Ian Furst-CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org)

An article in the Journal of Hypertension found that 30% of South Africans had high blood pressure but only 50% were aware and receiving treatment. The median age for hypertension was 40, with the numbers being skewed more towards men than women.

Most people don’t spot hypertension until it has morphed into severe illnesses such as stroke and heart disease. Health practitioners and health advocacy organisations say the food industry and government can help by reducing sodium levels in food products, especially processed foods. However, practitioners are also educating people on unhealthy habits that lead to hypertension and encouraging people to get their blood pressure checked.

Nematswerani said, “We are just sending the message that this is a simple test that can save you from severe complications such as kidney damage, heart conditions and even dementia”.

The Heart and Stroke Foundation (HSFSA) has been raising awareness of the benefits of reducing salt consumption, stating it is one of the most efficient ways to reduce blood pressure and improve overall health.

In a statement CEO, Professor Pamela Naidoo, of the HSFSA said:

“Few people realise that there is salt naturally contained in foods, and hence by adding salt to their food, unintentionally consume a far higher amount of salt per day, exceeding the WHO’s recommendation of 5g (or 1 level teaspoon) of salt per day. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends we consume no more than 5g a day, from all sources. If population salt intake reduces to 5g a day, 1.65 million deaths from CVD [cardiovascular disease] can be prevented.”

 Weekly Health News and information- Quanlim Life/Lifeiselect - Health 22nd May 2024

The foundation has had a blood pressure testing drive and a social media competition that aims to educate on salt consumption.

Tackling food industry salt content

The foundations say although personal habits are a factor in high blood pressure prevalence in 2024, their call to action focuses on the food industry, inclusive of food companies, fast food outlets and restaurants.

“The food industry in general needs to be transparent about what ingredients are contained in the food items sold,” said Naidoo.

The best way of doing this, continued Naidoo, is by ensuring that accurate information is reflected on front-of-pack nutrition labels. Naidoo also emphasised that the public and consumers need to fully understand food labels to ensure that they are spending their hard-earned income on food that is nutritious and not harmful, at all ages during their lives. Food labels allow one to distinguish between healthy and unhealthy options. Knowing the details on a food label is very empowering.

Nematswerani said a critical factor is unhealthy food being cheaper and more accessible than healthy options. She believes in the ‘one home, one garden’ method, saying it makes a difference in giving access to some of the nutritional food one needs daily.

“I think we have made healthy food inaccessible and expensive while we have made processed, unhealthy food accessible and that is our problem. When you need something to eat you will have access to a fried fish and chips, or a burger. But if you are looking for fruit and a nice balanced salad you will struggle to find it and you will pay more, so affordability becomes a factor,” said Nematswerani.

The National Department of Health along with other relevant government departments have channelled efforts towards salt reduction over the years to reduce non-communicable diseases that arise after hypertension. Health advocates have acknowledged that the country is the “first country globally to develop mandatory legislation to reduce sodium levels across a wide range of processed food categories.

Main complications of persistent high blood pressure. (Illustration: Mikael Häggström-CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org)

Hypertension symptoms

According to the World Health Organization symptoms can include:

• severe headaches;
• chest pain;
• dizziness;
• difficulty breathing;
• nausea;
• vomiting;
• blurred vision or other vision changes;
• anxiety;
• confusion;
• buzzing in the ears;
• nosebleeds;and
• abnormal heart rhythm.

Most healthcare centres begin by testing with a blood pressure cuff before consulting and investigating potential illnesses.

Nematswerani says that even though these can be generic symptoms, making an appointment and getting tested at a healthcare centre and can save your life.

“We would like to encourage people to listen to their bodies and present themselves to healthcare centres. It’s unfortunate that most diagnoses are made when it’s already escalated to heart disease or a stroke,” said Nematswerani. 

COMMENTS - Again is just another Symptom related issue- that is not practical on all people. 

If you want to know how much food the world wastes, the internet is your friend.

Roquette, a global leader in plant-based ingredients for Food, Nutrition and Health markets and a pioneer in new vegetal proteins, and Equinom Ltd., an innovative Israel based breeding technology company, have signed a partnership agreement for the development and sourcing of new pea varieties with high-protein content.

Environmental health is concerned with how the environment - not only air, water and other organisms - but our homes, work and leisure places, means of transport and technology - affects human health and well-being.

Food security and environmental problems will remain serious in many countries - new FAO study
Globally there will be enough food for a growing world population by the year 2030, but hundreds of millions of people in developing countries will remain hungry and many of the environmental problems caused by agriculture will remain serious, according to the summary report of "World agriculture: towards 2015/2030", a study launched by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Population growth will slow down and many people will be better fed. As a result, the growth in demand for food will be lower. The pressure emanating from agriculture on natural resources will continue to increase, but at a slower pace than in the past.

For many of the currently more than 1.1 billion people that are living in extreme poverty, economic growth based primarily on agriculture and on non-farm rural activities is essential to improve their livelihoods. The majority of the poor live in rural areas. Promoting agricultural growth in rural areas and giving rural people better access to land, water, credit, health and education, is essential to alleviate poverty and hunger.

International trade plays an important role in improving food security and further agricultural trade liberalization could boost incomes. FAO projects that the agricultural trade deficit of the developing countries will increase drastically over the period to 2030. The report calls for better access to OECD markets, the elimination of export subsidies and the reduction of tariffs, in particular on processed agricultural goods, in both developed and developing countries. In addition, where it is still the case, developing countries should stop to discriminate against their agriculture in national policy making.

The benefits of globalization in food and agriculture could outweigh the risks and costs. For example, globalization has generally led to progress in reducing poverty in Asia. "But it has also led to the rise of multinational food companies with the potential to disempower farmers in many countries. Developing countries need the legal and administrative framework to ward off the threats while reaping the benefits." Openess towards international markets, investments in infrastructure, the promotion of economic integration and limits on market concentration, could make globalization work for the benefit of the poor.

Main findings

World population will grow from around 6 billion people today to 8.3 billion people in 2030. Population growth will be growing at an average of 1.1 percent a year up to 2030, compared to 1.7 percent annually over the past 30 years. At the same time, an ever increasing share of the world's population is well-fed. As a result, the growth in world demand for agricultural products is expected to slow further, from an average 2.2 percent annually over the past 30 years to 1.5 percent per year until 2030. In developing countries, the slowdown will be more dramatic, from 3.7 percent for the past 30 years to an average of 2 percent until 2030.

However, the developing countries with low to medium levels of consumption, accounting for about half of the population in developing countries, would see demand growth slowing only from 2.9 to 2.5 percent per year, and per caput consumption increasing.

The world population will be increasingly well-fed by 2030, with 3050 kilocalories (kcal) available per person, compared to 2360 kcal per person per day in the mid-1960s and 2800 kcal today. This change reflects above all the rising consumption in many developing countries whose average will be close to 3000 kcal in 2030.

The number of hungry people in developing countries is expected to decline from 777 million today to about 440 million in 2030. This means, that the target of the World Food Summit in 1996, to reduce the number of hungry by half from its level in 1990-92 (815 million) by 2015, will not even be met by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa is cause for serious concern, because the number of chronically undernourished people will only decrease from 194 to 183 million.

Patterns of food consumption are becoming more similar throughout the world, shifting towards higher-quality and more expensive foods such as meat and dairy products. Meat consumption in developing countries, for example, has risen from only 10 kg per person annually in 1964-66 to 26 kg in 1997-99. It is projected to rise to 37 kg per person per year in 2030. Milk and dairy products have also seen rapid growth, from 28 kg per person per year in 1964-66, to 45 kg now, and could rise to 66 kg in 2030. FAO expects increases in meat and dairy consumption to be less dramatic than in the past.

Cereals are still by far the world's most important sources of food, both for direct human consumption and meat production. An extra billion tonnes of cereals will be needed by 2030.

The developing countries will become increasingly dependent on cereal, meat and milk imports, their production will not keep pace with demand. By 2030 they could be producing only 86 percent of their own cereal needs, with net imports rising from currently 103 million tonnes to 265 million tonnes by 2030. Traditional grain exporters such as the US, the EU, Canada, Australia and Argentina, and the transition countries as emerging exporters, are expected to produce the surpluses needed to fill this gap. "If real food prices do not rise, and exports of industry products and services grow as previously, then most countries will be able to afford to import cereals to meet their needs. However, the poorest countries tend to be the least able to pay for imports."

The use of cereals as animal feed does not contribute to hunger and undernutrition. Globally, some 660 million tonnes of cereals are used as livestock feed each year. This represents just over a third of total world cereal use. If these cereals were not used as feed, they would probably not be produced at all, so would not be available as food in many cases, according to the report. More likely, the lack of demand for cereals for livestock production would lead to lower crop production.

Much of future food production growth will come from higher productivity. In developing countries, almost 70 percent of the increase in crop production will come from higher yields, around 20percentfrom an expansion of arable land and around 10 percent from multiple cropping and shorter fallow periods.

The expansion of farmland for food production will be slower than in the past. In the next 30 years, developing countries will need an additional 120 million ha for crops, this means, less new land will be opened up than in the past. The expansion will mainly take place in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. A considerable part of this extra land will probably come from forest clearance. In other developing regions, almost all suitable land is already in use. Some countries and communities will face problems related to land scarcity.

During the 1990s, the world lost a forest area of 9.4 million ha per year, about three times the size of Belgium. However, the rate of deforestation was slower than in the 1980s, and, globally, deforestation will probably continue to slow down in future, although much of the cropland expansion will have to come from forests and world consumption of industrial roundwood is expected to rise by 60 percent over current levels.

  How Food and Farming Will Determine the Fate of Planet Earth

Irrigation is crucial to the world's food supplies. The developing countries are likely to expand their irrigated area from 202 million ha today to 242 million ha by 2030.

At global level there is enough water available, but some regions will face serious water shortages. A 14 percent increase in water withdrawals for irrigation is expected for developing countries by 2030. One in five developing countries will be suffering water scarcity. Two countries, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and Saudi-Arabia, are already using more water for irrigation than their annual renewable resources, by drawing on fossil groundwater. In large areas of India and China, ground-water levels are falling by 1 to 3 metres per year. These regions will need to use water more efficiently. Agriculture is responsible for about 70 percent of all fresh water withdrawn for human use. Saving water in agriculture means that more water is available for other sectors.

Modern biotechnology offers promise as a means to improving food security. If the environmental threats from biotechnology are addressed, and if the technology is affordable by and geared towards the needs of the poor and undernourished, genetically modified crop varieties could help to sustain farming in marginal areas and to restore degraded lands to production. To address the concerns of consumers FAO called for improved testing and safety protocols for genetically modified organisms.

Other promising technologies have emerged that combine increased production with improved environmental protection. These include no-till/conservation agriculture and integrated pest or nutrient management. Locally, organic agriculture could become a realistic alternative to traditional agriculture over the next 30 years.

Future demand for livestock and dairy products can be met, but the consequences of increased production must be addressed. Production will shift away from extensive grazing systems towards more intensive and industrial methods. "This could pose a threat to the estimated 675 million rural poor whose livelihoods depend on livestock. Without special measures, the poor will find it harder to compete and may become marginalized, descending into still deeper poverty. If the policy environment is right, the future growth in demand for livestock products could provide an opportunity for poor families to generate additional income and employment." Environmental and health problems of industrial meat production (waste disposal, pollution, the spread of animal diseases, overuse of antibiotics) also need to be addressed.

Climate change could increase the dependency of some developing countries on food imports. The overall effect of climate change on global food production by 2030 is likely to be small. Production will probably be boosted in developed countries. Hardesthit willbe small-scale farmers in areas affected by drought, flooding, salt water intrusion or sea surges. Some countries, mainly in Africa, are likely to become more vulnerable to food insecurity.

With many marine stocks now fully exploited or overexploited, future fish supplies are likely to be constrained by resource limits. The share of capture fisheries in world production will continue to decline, and the contribution of aquaculture to world fish production will continue to grow. The capacity of the global fishing fleet should be brought to a level at which fish stocks can be harvested sustainably, FAO said. "Past policies have promoted the build-up of excess capacity and incited fishermen to increase the catch beyond sustainable levels. Policy makers must act to reverse this situation."

The summary report is a shorter version of the results of the technical FAO study "World agriculture: towards 2015/2030" which will be published at a later stage. The report presents the latest FAO assessment of long-term developments in world food, nutrition and agriculture. FAO issued similar studies on global agriculture in 1995, 1988, 1981 and 1970. The projections cover about 140 countries and 32 crop and livestock commodities.

The world's ability to produce enough food by 2030 is a pressing concern. Fortunately, global food production is expected to exceed population growth, but there are still significant challenges to overcome 

Food Security Challenges

Despite the positive outlook, hundreds of millions of people in developing countries will remain hungry, and environmental problems caused by agriculture will persist . The number of hungry people in developing countries is projected to decline from 777 million to about 440 million by 2030, but this still falls short of the World Food Summit's 1996 target to reduce hunger by half .

Land and Resource Constraints

Agriculture's pressure on natural resources will continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace ¹. The world will need an additional billion tonnes of cereals by 2030, but developing countries will struggle to keep pace with demand, relying on imports to meet their needs 

Solutions and Opportunities

To address these challenges, promoting agricultural growth in rural areas and giving rural people better access to land, water, credit, health, and education is crucial ¹. International trade can also play a significant role in improving food security, with further agricultural trade liberalization potentially boosting incomes 

Key Statistics

- By 2030, the world population will reach 8.3 billion, with population growth slowing to 1.1% annually 
- Global food production will exceed population growth, but 440 million people in developing countries will remain hungry .
- An additional billion tonnes of cereals will be needed by 2030, with developing countries relying on imports to meet demand 

Overall, while there are challenges ahead, concerted efforts to promote sustainable agriculture, reduce poverty, and improve access to resources can help ensure global food security by 2030.

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