The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) was founded in 2004. It serves the broader African, as well as the South African food system through an end-to-end value chain approach which considers land, water, the economy and its people as well as elements of the socio-economic environment, such as infrastructure, governance, social change and technologies.
Our purpose is to inform better policy and business decision-making. We provide unique insights by going deeper into scientifically based, robust analyses, supported by credible databases, a combination of integrated models and considerable experience. Over more than 15 years, the Bureau has developed a very distinct value proposition to deliver a holistic solution to public and private sector clients active in the agricultural sector and related value chains. We regard innovation as one of the key drivers for sustainability and, therefore, BFAP has invested in the Integrated Value Information System (IVIS), a geo-spatial platform which further enhances BFAP’s product offering by providing enhanced visual solutions using the integration of data and insights to support strategic-decision-making along multi-dimensional value chains.
The BFAP Group consist of an experienced team with a range of multi-disciplinary skills including agricultural economics, food science, mathematics and data science, engineering, supply chain management, socio-economic impact assessment, systems technology, and geo-informatics. In addition, we fundamentally believe that a competitive and thriving agricultural sector with its related value chains is built on long-run partnerships. Hence, BFAP has developed a well-established network of local and international collaborators and partners in the public and private sector.
This includes long-standing partnerships with private sector clients, research partners such as the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri in the USA, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). BFAP is also one of the founding members and partners of the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI) in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a team and as a network, we pool our knowledge and experience to offer the best possible insights and access to a unique high value network. BFAP’s vision and mission is to: • undertake unbiased, scientifically rigorous and industry relevant research; • generate research outputs and solutions guided by market-based requirements and scenarios in order to drive sustainable commodity and food production and improve food security; • support capacity development through postgraduate research at the associated Universities; and • publish research outputs with the associated Universities in peer reviewed journals as well as in respected popular media. BFAP acknowledges and appreciates the tremendous insight of numerous industry specialists and collaborators over the past years.
The financial support from the Western Cape Department of Agriculture and ABSA Agribusiness towards the development and publishing of this Baseline is also gratefully acknowledged. Although all industry partners’ comments and suggestions are taken into consideration, BFAP’s own views are presented in this Baseline publication.
THE 2021 EDITION of the BFAP Baseline presents an outlook of agricultural production, consumption, prices and trade in South Africa for the period 2021 to 2030. The outlook is generated by the BFAP system of models and considers the performance of South African agriculture and its contribution to inclusive growth and economic prosperity as we enter the post-COVID era. The information presented is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, social and international market factors. One of the most important assumptions is that normal weather conditions will prevail in Southern Africa and around the world; therefore yields grow constantly over the baseline as technology improves. Assumptions regarding the outlook of macroeconomic conditions are based on a combination of projections developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University. Baseline projections for world commodity markets were generated by FAPRI at the University of Missouri. Once the critical assumptions are captured in the BFAP system of models, the Outlook for all commodities is simulated within a closed system of equations. This implies that, for example, any shocks in the grain sector are transmitted to the livestock sector and vice versa. Therefore, for each commodity, important components of supply and demand are identified, after which an equilibrium is established through balance sheet principles by equating total demand to total supply.
