Climate change has been blamed for the wild swings in agricultural crop yields, but it could also result in a doomsday scenario for drinkers: Beer, the world’s top-consumed alcoholic beverage by volume, may at some point be out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world, according to a new study.
In the study, published Monday in the scientific journal Nature Plants, researchers from the University of California, Irvine and other institutions around the world attempted to study climate change’s impact on crop yields of barley, the main ingredient in beer, by examining “periods of extreme drought and heat.”
“These extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide,” the study said, adding that average yield losses could range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions.
Decreases in the global supply of barley could lead to “proportionally larger decreases” in the barley used to make beer and ultimately lead to “dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption in countries such as Argentina,” the study said.
The researchers also estimated that beer prices could almost triple in countries like Ireland. For instance, a six-pack of beer might cost $20 more for consumers in Ireland in an extreme drought situation, the study said.
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Climate change’s impact has been studied on what are considered staple crops, like wheat, rice and soybeans, and some attention has been paid to “luxury” goods such as wine and coffee. Interestingly, though, the impact on beer — which the researchers also considered a “luxury” item, having seen increased global demand amid a rising income level — hasn’t been “carefully evaluated,” the study noted.
A lower yield of barley may have a more dramatic impact on beer in part because the beer industry used only about 17% of global barley production in 2011. The crop is primarily used as livestock feed, which means the use of barley for food commodities is “prioritized over luxuries such as beer during extreme events years,” the study said.
“Future drought and heat events will not only lower the total availability of barley for most key countries but will also reduce the share of barley used for beer production,” according to the study.
Countries like Australia and Japan where beer is currently the most expensive aren’t necessarily where “future price shocks will be the greatest,” the study found. Price changes “relate to consumers’ ability and willingness to pay more for beer,” and that means the “largest price increases are concentrated in relatively affluent and historically beer-loving countries” like Ireland.
“Our results show that in the most severe climate events, the supply of beer could decline by about 16% in years when droughts and heat waves strike,” co-author Steven Davis, a University of California, Irvine associate professor of earth system science, said in a statement. “That’s comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S. Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world.”
