On 27 March 2020, Moody's downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to sub-investment grade and placed a negative outlook on the rating.
The key drivers for this downgrade include weak economic growth, continuing deterioration in fiscal strength, and slow progress on structural economic reforms. It is now the first time in post-apartheid South Africa where all major rating agencies, i.e. Moody’s, Fitch and S&P, have South Africa’s credit ratings in sub-investment grade territory. The key question some might be asking is what this means for South Africa’s agriculture?
There could be various transmission channels, but we believe that there are three major ones in the near terms. First, there could be a deterioration in confidence levels in the agricultural and agribusiness sectors, and thereafter investment. We gauge confidence in the agricultural and agribusiness sector through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), which in the first quarter of this year improved by 6 points to the neutral 50-point mark. This slight improvement was underpinned by improved agricultural conditions across the country following good rains. The ACI comprises of 10 subindices, of which two are economic conditions in the country and capital investment.
With economic conditions having deteriorated in the country further due to the spread of COVID-19 and measures put in place to contain the virus, the confidence levels could deteriorate in this particular subindex in the coming quarters. The sentiment regarding the capital investment subindex could also show deterioration in the coming quarters amid the recent downgrade by Moody’s. Ultimately, this will be a drag on the ACI, and possibly investment levels in agriculture. Such a scenario would be a setback to the government and the private sector's goal of ensuring that South Africa’s agriculture is amongst the sectors that drive the economic growth and bring much-needed employment in the rural areas.
Second, the volatility of the domestic currency could be another transmission of the effects of a sub-investment grade into agriculture. This would particularly be felt through the cost of inputs. South Africa imports roughly 80% of its fertilizer, 99% of active ingredients of agrochemicals, agricultural equipment and fuel. The cost of these inputs could be affected by the weaker domestic currency. So far, however, the lower oil prices have played a buffer to what could have potentially been a steep increase in fuel and fertilizer prices.
Third, there could also be a credit impact. Ordinarily, a credit rating downgrade to a sub-investment level would be felt through the rise in a cost of capital as the SARB would likely lift the interest rates in response to possible exchange rate depreciation and associated inflation risks. But this time is slightly different. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global supply chains, which subsequently led to deteriorating economic conditions. Several central banks, including the South African Reserve Bank, have responded by reducing interest rates as a way to ease financial conditions. This means the cost of capital has somewhat been reduced amid COVID-19. The transmission of a sub-investment grade could now be through the scarcity of capital. It is plausible to think that some financial institutions could become more risk-averse to lending, especially to already highly indebted farmers.
As we set out in our note on 23 March 2020, South Africa’s farming sector is heavily in debt. As of 2018, the total farm debt was at a record R168 billion. About 60% of the debt is with the commercial banks, 29% is with the Land Bank, with the rest spread between agricultural cooperatives, private persons and other institutions. The escalation of debt, particularly in more recent years, was because of both the expansion in area farmed, specifically in horticulture and to some extent, the financial pressure brought by frequent droughts, which have limited agricultural output on various farms over the recent past.
Policy considerations
While the response to deteriorating credit ratings will largely be macroeconomic and specifically fiscal, what the agricultural sector could focus on is:
To ensure continuous adoption of climate-smart farming techniques and other technologies that help the sector adapt to the changing climatic conditions.
The uncertainty over property rights was noted by Moody’s as one of the key risks on South Africa. To this end, the outcome of the land reform policy discussions about Section 25 of the Constitution, which entails property rights, is an important event to look out for when Parliament resumes, which we suspect will be after COVID-19 pandemic. This will be an important determinant of the direction that South Africa’s agricultural sector will be taking. Ultimately, South Africa’s agricultural sector is capital intensive, any policy that does not encourage investments into the sector will lead to the deterioration of agricultural fortunes. There are various proposals of accelerating land reform without undermining property rights which some are contained in the report of the Presidential Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture.
WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
SA’s 2019/20 summer crop harvest to be the second biggest on record
This promises to be a good year for South Africa’s agricultural sector, at least from a production front. The data released last week by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) show that South Africa’s 2019/20 summer crops production could increase by 29% y/y to 17.1 million tonnes. While this is still the second estimate for this season, with seven more to follow, if it materialises, this could be the second-largest summer crops harvest on record after the 2016/17 crop. The major gains are on maize, soybeans and sunflower seed as illustrated in Exhibit 3 in the attached file.
The 2019/20 maize, soybeans and sunflower seed harvest are forecast at 14.8 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes, and 731 210 million tonnes. This is respectively up by 32%, 8% and 8% from the previous season. The increase is mainly supported by an expansion in area planted in the case of maize and expected improvements in yields on the back of favourable weather conditions. The weather conditions have generally been favourable over the past few weeks with a fair amount of rainfall which improved soil moisture across many regions of the country. As a result, the crop is in good condition, and thus, we are convinced that the CEC estimates are plausible.
In the case of maize, the data essentially means that South Africa would remain a net exporter of at least 2 million tonnes in the 2020/21 marketing year which starts in May 2020 (corresponds with 2019/20 production season). This is at a time where Southern African maize import needs could outpace the previous year, with Zimbabwe in need of maize supplies to an extent that the country lifted a ban on the importation of genetically modified maize, which eases access for South African maize exporters. What’s more, a maize harvest of 14.8 million tonnes would enable South Africa to export maize beyond the continent to other typical markets such as Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea who are not prominent in the current marketing year. This, however, could be possible provided there are minimal disruptions in the supply chains amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike maize, however, South Africa could remain a net importer of soybean products, specifically oil cake, and a net importer of sunflower oil, irrespective of the potential improvement in the harvest. This is caused by the growing domestic demand for these particular oilseed products.
DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK
On Wednesday, the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) will release the weekly grain producer deliveries data for the week of 26 March 2020. This covers both summer and winter crops. With summer crops still at growing stages, the focus remains on winter wheat data, whose harvest was completed in January 2020. In the week of 20 March 2020, about 3 716 tonnes of wheat were delivered to commercial silos. This placed total wheat deliveries at about 1.44 tonnes, which equates to 96% of the expected harvest in the 2019/20 season.
On Thursday, SAGIS will release the weekly grain trade data (wheat and maize), also for the week of 26 March 2020. In brief, maize exports for the 2019/20 marketing year have thus far amounted to 1.25 million tonnes, which equates to 71% of the export forecast for this season (1.75 million tonnes).
At the same time, we expect maize imports of about 545 000 tonnes, all yellow maize, mainly for the coastal provinces of the country. This is up from an estimated 171 622 tonnes in the 2018/19 marketing year. The country has thus far imported 495 482 tonnes of yellow maize.
In terms of wheat, South Africa’s 2019/20 wheat imports could increase by 28% y/y to 1.80 million tonnes. In the week of 20 March 2020, South Africa’s 2019/20 season amounted to 717 840 tonnes, which equates to 39% of the seasonal import forecast (1.8 million tonnes).
Also, on Thursday, the United States Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales data. This is important data to monitor as it will give an indication of the US agriculture exports to China, and help us monitor the progress on commitments made in phase one trade deal and impact of COVID-19 pandemic on trade.
