The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally impacted the South African economy. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) also experience challenges with the collection of data. Statistics South Africa released available CPI data for October 2020 on Wednesday the 25th of November 2020.
During October 2020, the nominal cost of the NAMC’s 28-item urban food basket amounted to R955.71 compared to the R951.48 reported during September 2020. This resulted in a monthly increase of 0.4%. When compared to October 2019, an annual (y-o-y) increase of 10.3% is observed. • Within the NAMC’s 28-item urban food basket, dairy & eggs and bread & cereals price categories were the highest food inflation contributors (y-o-y) with 22.6% and 19.1%, respectively, while tea and coffee prices deflated by 0.2%, during the same period. • Rice, oranges and bananas were among the commodities with the highest annual food inflation which can be attributed to higher global prices for rice due to higher demand associated with fears around a second wave of COVID-19 and restrictions to exports by leading global producers when compared to this time last year.
The increase in orange prices can be linked to Covid-19 which result in a higher demand for fruit, especially fruit with Vitamin C, which resulted in higher global prices, higher quantities exported and lower supply to the local market while local demand also remains high, the same trend was observed during September 2020.
The increase in the price of bananas can be attributed to very low prices the previous season and a shift in climatic conditions in the current production period. • In November 2020 fuel prices for 93 Unleaded Petrol (ULP) decreased by R0.27/ℓ m-o-m to reach R14.39/ℓ, while 95 ULP decreased by R0.27/ℓ to R14.59/ℓ, representing a decrease of 1.84% and 1.82% m-o-m for 93 ULP and 95ULP, respectively. Diesel 500ppm decreased by R0.12/ℓ (0.97%) m-o-m to reach R12.25/ℓ on the 4th of November 2020. • The Rand appreciated from R16.42/US$ at the end of October 2020 to R15.32/US$ at 24th of November 2020, • The stronger rand towards the end of November has positively affected fuel price recovery per litre. • December 2020 expectations: Petrol prices are expected to decrease for both grades with more than 30 cents per litre while diesel prices are expected to decline marginal.
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