According to the Statistics South Africa Living Conditions Survey 2014/2015, the least affluent 50% of South African households allocate approximately 35% of their food budget to starch-rich foods.
Year-on-year inflation of 19.3% on the Bread and Cereals category thus poses a significant threat to the food security of many South African households. Figure 2 presents a comparison of the single serving unit (SSU1 ) costs of super maize meal, brown bread, white bread and rice. Maize meal remains the most affordable staple food in South Africa, with a cost of R0.32/SSU in September 2022, compared to rice (R0.39/SSU), brown bread (R0.95/SSU) and white bread (R1.07/SSU).
The affordability gap between maize meal and the other starch-rich food options presented in Figure 2 has decreased over time, with the most significant reduction observed for rice, where the gap declined from 80% in 2021 to only 24% in September 2022. Considering the shorter cooking times of rice relative to maize meal, the reduced affordability gap could motivate consumers to substitute some maize meal in their diet with rice, which could imply a significant loss of micronutrient intake as maize meal is fortified while rice is not fortified in South Africa.
Taking a look at food inflation. South African year-on-year inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 11.9% in September 2022. Low-income households pay R432 per month more for a basic health food basket than a year ago.
In this issue of the BFAP FOOD INFLATION BRIEF, we unpack the September 2022 South African food inflation figures and the associated driving factors and expectations. The relative affordability of staple food options is also unpacked in more detail.
Year-on-year inflation on Food and Non-alcoholic beverages gained significant further momentum in September 2022, with a 0.5% increase from August 2022. As in previous months, food inflation was mainly driven by price increases in grain-based foods followed by meat.
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