According to the Citrus: World Markets and Trade report recently released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, slight increases in the global production of mandarins/tangerines, oranges, grapefruit and lemons/limes are expected in the 2023/24 season. However, global orange juice output is projected to witness a 3% decrease owing to a decline in orange production in Brazil, the world’s biggest supplier. Notably, China’s orange production is forecast to reach a record high of 7.6 million metric tons, with exports expected to nearly triple.
Mandarins/Tangerines
Owing to significant increases in output in China and Turkey, global mandarin/tangerine production is forecast to rise by 1.2 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season to reach 38.2 million metric tons. The anticipated increase in supply is expected to drive growth in both consumption and exports.
In China, favorable weather conditions in major producing regions such as Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi and Jiangxi are anticipated to lead to a bumper harvest, with the national production expected to increase by 400,000 metric tons to reach a total of 26.9 million metric tons. As production increases, consumption and exports are also predicted to rise, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam expected to remain the largest export markets.
Among major producers in the Northern Hemisphere, the United States is expected to see a 2% increase in production, reaching 890,000 metric tons, driven by favorable weather and high yields in California. By contrast, the European Union’s production is projected to decrease by 297,000 metric tons to a total of 2.7 million metric tons, primarily owing to poor weather conditions that have resulted in lower fruit quality and smaller fruit size. Meanwhile, Morocco’s production is forecast to grow by 2% to 950,000 metric tons, which is mainly attributable to enhanced irrigation having mitigated the impact of high temperatures on production.
In the Southern Hemisphere, South Africa’s production is forecast to grow by 8%, reaching a record 780,000 metric tons, more than doubling the output from five years ago. This increase is primarily attributable to an expanded harvest area and newly planted trees coming into full production. Consequently, both consumption and exports are expected to rise alongside the production increase. By contrast, Chile’s production is anticipated to decrease by 10% to a total of 242,000 metric tons on account of ongoing drought and insufficient water for irrigation. Meanwhile, Peru’s production is forecast to increase by 10,000 metric tons, reaching 560,000 metric tons, driven by favorable recent weather conditions.
Oranges
Production declines in Brazil and the European Union are expected to be more than offset by higher production in Egypt, the United States and Turkey, leading to a 1% increase in global orange production in the 2023/24 season to reach a total of 47.4 million metric tons. Both consumption and the volume of oranges destined for processing are anticipated to rise alongside the production increase, while exports are expected to remain stable.
In Brazil, production is forecast to decrease slightly to 15.3 million metric tons owing to drought and the impact of citrus greening disease. In China, the second-largest producer, output is expected to increase slightly, reaching a record 7.6 million metric tons, largely driven by favorable weather and an increase in the number of fruit-bearing trees in Jiangxi province. China’s orange imports are forecast to decline, while exports are projected to nearly triple on account of the higher production, with Vietnam and Malaysia being the primary overseas markets.
Among major producers in the Northern Hemisphere, the European Union’s production is expected to drop by 2% to 5.5 million metric tons. This decline is primarily attributable to excessive rainfall during fruit set followed by hot and dry weather, as well as restrictions on irrigation, all of which have affected both yield and fruit size. The reduced supply is anticipated to lead to decreases in both consumption and exports, while imports may increase. By contrast, Mexico’s production is forecast to rise slightly to 4.9 million metric tons, while U.S. production is expected to grow by 8% to 2.5 million metric tons.
Tonnes of fruit stranded in EU, South Africa battle of oranges
In Egypt, favorable weather conditions have led to a high fruit set rate, boosting production by a predicted 100,000 metric tons and bringing the estimated total to a record 3.7 million metric tons. This increased supply, coupled with strong global demand, is set to push exports to new highs. Turkey’s production is projected to rebound by over 30%, reaching 1.7 million metric tons, because of an expanded harvest area and favorable weather, with exports anticipated to reach a historic peak. Meanwhile, Morocco’s production is forecast to rise by 37,000 metric tons, bringing the total to an estimated 820,000 metric tons.
In the Southern Hemisphere, South Africa’s production is predicted to grow by 3%, reaching a record 1.7 million metric tons, driven by favorable weather conditions and a slight increase in harvest area. However, strong demand from the processing sector is expected to limit both domestic consumption and exports. In Chile, production is projected to decline by 2% to 177,000 metric tons owing to a reduction in harvest area, which is also expected to result in lower exports.
Orange Juice
Brazil is currently the world’s largest orange juice producer, accounting for approximately 75% of global exports. However, a reduction in the volume of oranges available for processing in the country is expected to cause a 3% decrease in global orange juice production in the 2023/24 season, bringing it down to 1.5 million metric tons (65 degrees Brix). Consequently, global consumption and exports are both also anticipated to decline.
The drop in the quantity of oranges available for processing in Brazil is attributable to a combination of drought, extreme heat and the impact of citrus greening disease. As a result, Brazil’s orange juice production is estimated to fall by 9% to 1.1 million metric tons. This reduction in supply is expected to lead to a decrease in exports.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s production is projected to increase by 11%, reaching 155,000 metric tons, while U.S. production is forecast to rebound by 9%, reaching 93,000 metric tons. The European Union’s production is anticipated to grow by 4% to 50,000 metric tons. In South Africa, strong demand is expected to drive up production by more than 50%, reaching 58,800 metric tons, with a corresponding rise in exports.
Grapefruit
Global grapefruit production in the 2023/24 season is expected to increase slightly to 6.9 million metric tons, driven by favorable weather and higher output in China and Turkey. While consumption and processing volumes remain stable, exports are on the rise owing to the higher supply.
Lemons/Limes
Global lemon and lime production in the 2023/24 season is projected to rise by 2% to 10.1 million metric tons, with increased output in the European Union and Turkey set to more than compensate for declines in Argentina and Mexico. With the larger supply, global consumption and exports are both expected to increase.
