The International Grains Council on Jan. 24 issued its Grain Market Report for January in which it lowered its forecast for 2018-19 world soybean production and raised its outlook for the 2018-19 corn crop. The IGC also provided other updated supply-and-demand forecasts for those crops for the current marketing year.
The IGC forecast world soybean production in 2018-19 at a record 363 million tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from the November projection (IGC doesn’t issue a monthly report in December) but up 22 million tonnes from 341 million tonnes in 2017-18. The IGC indicated its lower world soybean production forecast reflected continued hot, dry weather in Brazil, where the harvest was well under way.
World trade in soybeans in 2018-19 was forecast at 152 million tonnes, unchanged from the November outlook but down 1 million tonnes from 153 million tonnes in 2017-18. The IGC forecast China’s 2018-19 soybean imports at 87.5 million tonnes, down 0.5 million tonnes from the November projection, down 4.5 million tonnes from 2017-18 and down 9.4 million tonnes from a record 96.9 million tonnes in 2016-17.
The IGC forecast 2018-19 world soybean ending stocks at 54 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the November projection and up 10 million tonnes from 44 million tonnes in 2017-18. Of the 2018-19 carryover, 30 million tonnes will be held in major exporting countries.
The IGC forecast world corn production in 2018-19 at 1.076 billion tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the November projection and up 29 million tonnes, or 3%, from 1.047 billion tonnes in 2017-18 and compared with 1.087 million tonnes in 2016-17.
The I.G.C. forecast world corn consumption in 2018-19 at 1.109 billion tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from the November outlook but up 37 million tonnes, or 3%, from 1.072 million tonnes in 2017-18.
World trade in corn in 2018-19 was forecast at 160 million tonnes, up 1 million from the November projection and up 8 million tonnes, or 5%, from 152 million tonnes in 2017-18.
The IGC forecast 2018-19 world corn ending stocks at 271 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from the November outlook but down 33 million tonnes, or 11%, from 304 million tonnes in 2017-18.
