Total world grain production is expected to increase 2% in 2019-20 to a total of 2.178 billion tonnes, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) Grain Market Report issued on April 25.
Larger harvests are expected in wheat, up 26 million tonnes; corn, up 6 million tonnes and barley, up 8 million tonnes. However, with opening stocks the smallest in three seasons, availabilities will be only slightly higher, the IGC said.
The outlook for soybean production in 2019-20 increased by 2 million tonnes month-over-month, to 361 million tonnes.
Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are expected to increase total consumption to a new high of 2.201 billion tonnes.
“Amid record demand and only a minor supply expansion, a third successive depletion of global stocks is predicted, to a five-year low of 588 million tonnes,” IGC said. “Little change in trade is projected as larger wheat shipments are balanced by a fall for maize.”
For 2018-19, IGC increased its forecast for total production by 3 million tonnes to 2.128 billion tonnes. The change was attributed to increases in corn in Argentina and Brazil. However, total grains production is still down 13 million tonnes year-over-year.
Soybean output increased 3 million tonnes month-over-month to a record 362 million tonnes, mostly because of improved prospects in South America.
Grains consumption was lowered 5 million tonnes month-over-month to 2.165 million tonnes. Most of the adjustment was seen in feed and industrial corn use in the U.S.
Grain stocks are expected to be 611 million tonnes, a drop of 36 million tonnes year-over-year.
“Grains trade is expected to match the season before, as the 10th consecutive rise for maize compensates for smaller shipments of wheat, barley and sorghum,” IGC said.
