World Farming Agriculture Commodity news
Global beef quarterly Q1 2024: Cost-conscious consumers and production changes are influencing global beef trade
The divergence between cattle prices in the two hemispheres that occurred throughout 2023 appears to have stabilized, but seasonal conditions continue to influence markets where consumer demand is weaker. Without strong demand pulling volume through the supply chain and bidding prices up, price setting falls back to the producer end of the chain and, with it, increased exposure to seasonal conditions and producer sentiment. Our outlook for global beef production remains neutral, with increases in Australia and Brazil offsetting declines in Europe and the US.
Beef demand is expected to remain steady in 2024. The strength of the economic outlook in different beef-consuming markets creates an interesting overlay to the global beef production situation and the balance of trade. With limited or negative real wage growth expected in 2024, coupled with the higher cost environment, we believe global beef consumption will at best remain steady and possibly decline through 2024, with some notable regional variations.
Supply and demand dynamics may swing trade flows toward the US. China’s import demand should remain sluggish in 2024 – at least in the first half – and with demand strength and lower domestic supplies in the US, beef trade is already being diverted to the US. If China’s recovery is better than expected, global beef markets could become quite tight, fueling price rises.
Although the prospects of increasing beef demand may not be strong, we retain a positive outlook on the market. With US production declining and its economic outlook being reasonable, the US is likely to lead the beef price-setting market. This is likely to draw increased volumes from Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil, along with trade from Canada and Mexico. But value will become the predominant theme across most markets in order to retain consumers faced with balancing the tighter economic conditions.
With a growing global population, spiralling production costs and a looming climate crisis, securing the future of food has never been more pressing. While farmers anchor our food systems, they’re also often blamed as a major contributor of greenhouse gases. However, agriculture can play a vital part in helping fight climate, food security and biodiversity crises; empowering farmers and enabling the farming sector to move further towards more sustainable practices is therefore crucial. With a third of the world’s food supply at risk from climate change, the entire food value chain must work together to find solutions to protect the future of food for our people and our planet.
Luckily, farmers around the world are up for the challenge, adapting innovative new technology and techniques and collaborating on initiatives to not only reduce their environmental impact but to future-proof their business for generations to come. A new documentary series, The Future of Food, captures some of the efforts being made by farmers globally to affect change. The film series, which premiered at COP28, has been made in association with the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO), who represents over 1.2 billion farmers worldwide.
Meanwhile, tomato farmers in Spain are also using technology to improve their yield. An app can give them real-time information on the threat of pests, allowing them to only use insecticides when necessary. Limited water availability is another issue, but farmer Luis Joaquin Sanchez explains how he can control the hydration systems from his phone. Advances like these give him hope. “As a farmer, I need to get a good yield and good crop prices to make my business sustainable over time,” he says. “I see a future for agriculture, and I would like to keep being a farmer. It is what I am, and what I love to do.”
The agricultural industry is facing monumental challenges, but as the Future of Food series shows, farmers, who are innovators by nature and necessity, are embracing it head-on, working together and sharing knowledge to find new, sustainable solutions for food production.
“It’s really important for farmers to be part of the solution to climate change,” says Ed Towers, a dairy farmer at Brades Farm in Lancashire, who has reduced emissions by 30% by using innovative new cattle feeds. “We wanted to run a sustainable business. We didn’t want to run a business and make money but then to look back over our lifetimes regretting what we’ve done because we’ve had a negative impact on the planet whilst doing it.”
World Farming Agriculture Commodity news - Short update - February 2024 - 4th Week
The global organic farming area increased by over 20 million hectares or 26.6 % between 2021 and 2022 and grew more than ever before. Around 96 million hectares of land were farmed organically in 2022, according to a new report published by FiBL and IFOAM – Organics International. The number of organic farmers also rose significantly, surpassing 4.5 million, and the sales of organic food reached nearly 135 billion euros in 2022. The 25th edition of the statistical yearbook “The World of Organic Agriculture” was presented on February 13th at BIOFACH, the world's leading trade fair for organic food in Nuremberg. It offers a comprehensive review of recent developments in global organic agriculture and includes detailed statistics on organic farming activities in 188 countries. According to the publishers, it also highlights the role of organic agriculture in overarching sustainability strategies such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the European Union's Farm to Fork Strategy:
“Considering that organic agriculture significantly contributes to all of these goals and strategies, this book not only presents data on land area, the number of producers, and market figures but also shows organic agriculture's relevance in addressing climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security, halting biodiversity loss, and promoting sustainable consumption,” Dr. Jürn Sanders, Chairman of the Management Board of FiBL Switzerland and IFOAM President Karen Mapusua write in the foreword to the report. “Thus, it underscores its contribution to the transformation of food systems as a whole (…) and to a sustainable future.”
Australia remains the country with the largest area of organic agriculture at 53 million hectares but it is estimated that 97 % of the farmland is extensive grazing areas. Australia’s organic farming area saw a tremendous increase of 17.3 million hectares. India ranks second with 4.7 million and Argentina third with 4 million hectares, followed by China with 2.9 million hectares. France is in fifth place (2.88m hectares). Due to the large area of organic farmland in Australia, more than half of the global organic area lies in Oceania (55.2 %). Europe had the second largest area (18.4 million hectares or 19.1 %), followed by Latin America (9.5 million hectares or 9.9 %), Asia (8.8m hectares or 9.2 %), and Africa (2.7m hectares or 2.8 %). Currently, only 2 % of the world’s agricultural land is farmed organically, but many countries have far higher shares.
In 22 countries, 10% or more of all agricultural land was under organic management in 2022, up from 20 countries in 2021. The top five countries with the largest share of organic land were Liechtenstein (43 %), Austria (27.5 %) and Estonia (23.4 %). Many island states have high shares of agricultural land under organic management, such as São Tomé and Príncipe (21.2 %) and Dominica (11.6 %). In the European Union, the organic share of the total agricultural land was 10.4 % while in the other regions, the share is less than 1 %. According to the report, there were 4.5 million organic farmers worldwide in 2022 and their number increased by 26 % compared to the year before, primarily thanks to a significant increase in India.
However, the authors point out that calculating precise figures is difficult here because some countries only report the number of companies, projects or growers’ groups which may each comprise many individual producers, hence the total number might even be higher. The largest share of the world’s organic producers (60.6%) lives in Asia, while Africa is home to 21.6 % and Europe to 10.6 % of organic farmers. The country with the highest absolute numbers is India with 2.5 million farmers, followed by Uganda (404,246), as well as Thailand and Ethiopia with 121.500 producers respectively.
The global market for organic food and consumer demand across the globe continued to grow. Global retail sales of organic food and drink reached around 135 billion euros in 2022 and experienced a total increase of 4 billion euros (+3 %) from the previous year. In 2022, the United States continued to be the leading market with 56.6 billion euros, followed by Germany (15.3bn euros), China (12.4bn euros) and France (12.1bn euros). While several countries in Europe experienced a decline, retail sales in Canada rose by 9.7 %, followed by Japan where sales were up 8.4 %. When the shares the organic market has of the total market are considered, the leader remained Denmark with 12%, followed by Austria (11.5 %) and Switzerland (11.2 %). Swiss consumers spent the most on organic food with an average of 437 euros per person, followed by Denmark where the average consumer spent 365 euros, followed by Austria and Luxembourg with 274 euros and 259 euros respectively. In a special chapter on the global market for organic food and drink, Amarjit Sahota of Ecovia Intelligence puts the bare figures in perspective: “The organic products market has been adversely affected by global geopolitical conflicts and uncertain economic conditions. Revenue growth continued in 2022; however, this has been partly because of rising organic food prices,” he writes in the report. “Some countries, including Germany and France, reported declines in monetary sales and volumes. In the USA and other countries, revenue growth has been at a comparatively low rate.” He says that the organic food industry is not immune to geopolitical conflict that is causing disruption in global supply chains of agricultural products. However, he expects healthy growth to resume as economic conditions improve.
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