Sustainability in agriculture involves balancing profitable farming practices with environmental protection for the benefit of society as a whole. However, challenges such as herbicide resistance, the loss of chemical agents, limited alternatives, and climate change pose significant hurdles for farmers. These issues require innovative solutions to maintain productivity while safeguarding ecosystems.The 2025-26 global wheat production season is projected to set a new world record. The Northern Hemisphere is currently harvesting wheat, injecting fresh supply into global markets, though the quality of this yield remains uncertain.
In Black Sea countries like Ukraine and Russia, production estimates have been slightly downgraded, suggesting a reduction in lower-quality, cheaper wheat entering the global market. Conversely, countries renowned for high-quality wheat—such as Europe, Australia, and Canada—are expected to see an increase in exports this season, capitalizing on their reputation for superior grain.Global demand is set to outstrip supply this year, providing support for international wheat prices.
However, in South Africa, significant wheat imports are anticipated over the next two months, exceeding the five-year average. This surge in imports could exert downward pressure on local prices. Additionally, the influx of European wheat into global markets may further influence price dynamics, potentially softening international prices in the short term.In summary, while international wheat prices are likely to remain supported over the long term due to strong demand, short-term pressure from local imports in South Africa could create challenges for domestic producers. In the canola market, local prices are currently aligned with export parity to Europe.
The season is expected to conclude with lower canola stocks, creating opportunities for the new canola harvest. Local processing capacity will be critical in managing end-of-season stock levels and alleviating pressure on inventories.By addressing these challenges and leveraging global market opportunities, South Africa’s agricultural sector can continue to thrive while advancing sustainable practices that benefit both the environment and society.
In 2025, global agricultural markets are experiencing dynamic shifts, with the United States anticipating a bumper crop across key commodities, while South Africa enters its new planting season with optimism tempered by high input costs. These developments have significant implications for farmers, trade, and food security in both regions and beyond.
The U.S.’s bumper crop could intensify global price competition, particularly for maize and soybeans, where South Africa is also a net exporter. The CEC notes that South Africa’s maize exports are projected at 2.3 million tonnes for 2025-26, but local prices may face downward pressure from high wheat imports in the next two months, exceeding the five-year average. The U.S. tariffs further complicate South Africa’s export strategy, particularly for niche products like ostrich leather, which supports 70% of the U.S. cowboy boot industry, and macadamias, where the U.S. accounts for 13% of exports. These tariffs are expected to reduce South Africa’s GDP by 0.2-0.3% in 2025, impacting jobs in retail, transport, and services. However, South Africa’s agricultural sector remains resilient. The adoption of technology, such as long-range observation cameras to combat stock theft, and investments in post-harvest infrastructure are bolstering productivity. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) projects that fertilizer prices may stabilize in 2026, offering potential relief. Moreover, initiatives like the release of 2.5 million hectares of government land to new farmers with title deeds and improved land governance in former homelands could help the sector reach its National Development Plan target of one million jobs
As America celebrates a bumper crop in 2025, South Africa enters its new season with hope, driven by favorable weather forecasts and strong export demand. However, high input costs and U.S. tariffs pose significant challenges. By leveraging technology, diversifying markets, and fostering collaboration between government, labor, and business, South Africa can navigate these hurdles and sustain its agricultural momentum. Both nations, despite their challenges, are poised to play critical roles in global food security, balancing profitability with sustainability in an increasingly competitive market
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