Brazilian export flows have accelerated sharply during September, the country's 2026 harvest is effectively complete, and Robusta exchange stocks have continued to recover. At the same time, ICE Arabica certified inventories remain extremely low and unusual weather conditions in Brazil have already triggered an early flowering for the 2027 crop, adding a new dimension to the supply outlook.
Arabica Gives Back Friday's Recovery
December Arabica settled Monday at 276.40 cents per pound, down 4.10 cents, or around 1.46%, after trading in a wide range between 274.25 and 283.50 cents. The contract initially attempted to extend Friday's recovery and traded above 283 cents during the first part of the session, but the move failed to hold and renewed selling pushed prices back below the psychological 280-cent level. Trading volume reached approximately 23,760 contracts, while December ultimately surrendered the gains recorded at the end of last week.
The latest decline leaves Arabica close to its lowest levels in roughly two and a half months. Since trading at 335.50 cents on August 25, December has lost 59.10 cents, equivalent to around 17.6%, highlighting the scale of the recent correction. The market has repeatedly tested the 274-275-cent region during the past several sessions, but has so far avoided a sustained break beneath it. This area remains an important short-term reference, particularly as technical indicators are already heavily stretched following the decline from the August highs.
Nearby spreads have also softened. The December-March spread narrowed to approximately 7.95 cents, compared with 8.55 cents previously, while December-May declined to 10.45 cents and March-May to around 2.15 cents. The curve nevertheless remains inverted, indicating that nearby coffee continues to command a premium over deferred supply even as flat prices fall sharply.
Brazilian Coffee Shipments Accelerate
The physical market is increasingly being influenced by a strong acceleration in Brazilian exports. According to data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, Cecafé, shipments reached approximately 2.054 million bags by September 21, an increase of 28.2% from the comparable period. Arabica accounted for around 1.506 million bags, Robusta shipments reached approximately 402,000 bags, while soluble coffee represented another 145,000 bags.
The export pipeline points to the possibility of further strong shipments before the end of the month. Requests for certificates of origin had reached approximately 2.724 million bags, up 59%, including around 1.949 million bags of Arabica, 585,000 bags of Robusta and almost 190,000 bags of soluble coffee.
The September data mark a clear acceleration compared with the beginning of the month and suggest that Brazilian coffee is moving into the international market at a faster pace after a period of comparatively slow shipments and restrained producer selling. This is important because much of the bullish discussion earlier in the year was driven not only by production concerns, but also by the limited availability of physical coffee reaching consuming markets. Faster exports are now reducing some of those immediate availability concerns, even though exchange inventories remain tight.
ICE Arabica Stocks Continue to Fall
The stronger Brazilian export flow has not yet translated into rebuilding ICE Arabica certified stocks. Exchange inventories declined by another 5,060 bags to 253,355 bags, keeping certified supply close to historically depressed levels. Coffee awaiting certification stood at around 25,355 bags, but the amount currently available for delivery remains extremely small relative to previous years.
The contrast between low certified stocks and falling futures prices remains one of the most important features of the current market. Under normal circumstances, such limited exchange availability would be expected to provide strong support to nearby contracts. Instead, the market appears increasingly focused on future replenishment, particularly as Brazilian shipments accelerate and additional new-crop coffee from Central America, Colombia and Asia approaches the market.
The inverted Arabica curve nevertheless shows that the nearby balance has not become comfortable. The market is effectively distinguishing between coffee that is available immediately and supply that is expected to become more abundant over the coming months.
Robusta Falls Further as Stocks Recover
London Robusta also remained under pressure. November futures closed at $3,337 per tonne, down $59, after trading between $3,307 and $3,391, while January declined by $61 to $3,312 per tonne. November alone traded approximately 13,610 contracts, while overall London volume increased substantially compared with Friday.
The November-January spread remained at around $25 per tonne, leaving the nearby contract at a modest premium. However, Robusta's underlying stock picture is very different from Arabica. Certified inventories have climbed to approximately 5,043 lots, their highest level in around nine and a half months, providing increasing evidence that physical availability has improved.
Expectations for additional supply are also building as the market moves toward the start of the Vietnamese and wider Asian harvest period. New coffee is expected to become increasingly available from late October and November, while Brazil's Conilon crop has already contributed to the recovery in export flows. The combination of rising stocks and new-crop expectations continues to limit Robusta's ability to generate a sustained recovery despite the magnitude of the recent decline.
VIEWPOINT-The world of coffee in 2026 is everywhere—on nearly every corner,
Brazil's 2026 Harvest Is Effectively Complete
Brazil's current harvest is now almost entirely finished. In the Cerrado Mineiro region, Expocacer reported that harvesting had reached approximately 99% of the projected level, while around 91% of total production had already been processed. Rainfall during September temporarily interrupted the collection of coffee remaining on the ground, but the effect on the main harvest is increasingly limited as field work approaches completion.
Expocacer estimates that coffee collected from the ground represents around 30% of total production in the region, with approximately 81% of that volume already recovered. The cooperative also reported an average conversion of around 455 litres per processed bag, described as one of the stronger results seen in recent harvests.
With the 2026 crop virtually secured, weather in Brazil is now becoming primarily a story about the 2027 crop, and recent developments are unusually early.
Early Flowering Could Bring the 2027 Harvest Forward
Coffee trees in several Brazilian regions have already undergone their first major flowering after unusually wet conditions during the country's winter. According to agronomists cited by Reuters, the flowering occurred roughly one month earlier than usual, reflecting higher winter moisture associated with the developing El Niño pattern.
The timing is significant because flowering establishes the development calendar for the next crop. If cherries progress normally, the unusually early flowering could advance maturation and potentially allow harvesting of part of the 2027 Arabica crop to begin around May next year, earlier than is typical.
From a market perspective, an earlier harvest could have implications for the timing of future supply. Brazil is already increasing the flow of coffee from the current crop into international markets, and an earlier 2027 harvest could shorten the period between the depletion of existing stocks and the arrival of the next crop. This potentially reinforces the more comfortable supply narrative currently weighing on futures.
However, early flowering does not necessarily mean a larger crop. The flowers still need to develop successfully into cherries, and additional flowering rounds are expected over the coming months. If flowering occurs over several separate periods, fruit could mature unevenly, potentially complicating harvesting and affecting quality.
2027 Remains an Off-Year for Brazil's Arabica Cycle
The timing of the crop should also be separated from expectations for its eventual size. Brazil produced a large crop in 2026, while 2027 is expected to represent the lower-producing year in the Arabica biennial cycle. Coffee trees often devote more energy to vegetative recovery after a heavy production season, which can limit output during the following crop.
This means the early flowering is more clearly a signal about crop timing than about crop size. A favourable development period could bring coffee to market earlier, but it does not eliminate the possibility of a year-on-year production decline. The final outcome will depend on fruit setting, subsequent flowering, rainfall distribution, temperature and tree condition over the next several months.
That distinction is important because the market could simultaneously face an earlier crop and a smaller crop. The two outcomes are not mutually exclusive.
Rainfall Helps Flowering but Raises Disease Risk
Recent weather has generally improved soil moisture in Brazil, which is supportive for flowering and early fruit development. However, unusually persistent humidity also carries agronomic risks. Agronomists have warned that prolonged wet conditions can increase the incidence of fungal and bacterial diseases, as dry winter weather normally helps suppress pathogens between production cycles.
Recent hail in areas including Patos de Minas, Perdizes, Serra do Salitre and Araxá has introduced an additional localized concern. Damage to branches and leaves can create entry points for pathogens and potentially increase the risk of diseases affecting new vegetative growth.
Brazil's weather outlook is also becoming increasingly important as spring progresses. Forecasts point toward above-normal temperatures across large areas of the country, with a higher risk of heat episodes during October. Elevated temperatures alone do not imply crop losses, but excessive heat during flowering or early cherry development can become damaging if soil moisture deteriorates.
The next several weeks will therefore determine whether Brazil's early start develops into a favourable production cycle or whether heat, inconsistent rainfall and disease pressure begin to offset the benefits of improved moisture.
El Salvador Export Revenue Rises Despite Slower Volumes
Elsewhere in Latin America, El Salvador generated $167.5 million from coffee exports between January and July 2026, according to data from the country's Central Reserve Bank, an increase of 21.7% from the $137.6 million recorded during the same period of 2025.
Export volumes increased by a much smaller 8.4%, reaching approximately 515,800 quintals, compared with 476,100 quintals a year earlier. The stronger increase in revenue was largely driven by higher prices, with the average export value rising from approximately $289 per quintal to $324.60 per quintal.
The contrast became even more pronounced in July. Export volume declined by 13.1% year on year to around 58,300 quintals, while revenue fell only 1.7% to $20.5 million. The average export price reached approximately $352 per quintal, compared with $311.40 in July 2025, the highest monthly average recorded during the first seven months of this year.
The data show that elevated international prices have continued to support export earnings even as physical availability has started to decline toward the end of the current crop cycle.
El Salvador Turns Attention to the New Harvest
Producer organisations ACAFESAL and UCAFES have attributed part of the recent export slowdown to the normal reduction in available stocks toward the end of the harvest year. The more important question is now the upcoming crop, with harvesting expected to begin in October.
Producers have reported smaller cherries and premature ripening in some areas after insufficient rainfall limited fruit development. Eastern producing regions appear to have experienced some of the most significant problems, although reports of damage have also emerged from western areas.
The USDA has projected Salvadoran production at approximately 542,000 60-kg bags for 2026/27, below an estimated 586,000 bags for 2025/26. The forecast contrasts with the stronger performance of the crop now ending. By the end of May, the Salvadoran Coffee Institute reported cumulative green coffee output of approximately 952,237 quintals, equivalent to roughly 720,000 60-kg bags, around 12.9% above the corresponding point of the previous season.
El Salvador therefore provides another example of the divide currently appearing across the coffee market. Present export revenues remain supported by high prices, while the supply outlook for the next crop has become more uncertain.
Market Perspective
The broader coffee balance is increasingly being shaped by an improvement in current physical availability while uncertainty shifts toward future production. Brazilian exports are accelerating sharply, the country's 2026 harvest is virtually complete, Robusta certified inventories have rebuilt and additional coffee from Vietnam, Central America, Colombia and other origins will begin reaching the market during the final months of the year.
Brazil's unusually early flowering adds another potentially supply-positive element. If crop development remains favourable, part of the 2027 Arabica harvest could begin earlier than normal, potentially shortening the period before new Brazilian coffee becomes available. Combined with stronger current exports, this helps explain why futures have remained under pressure despite exceptionally low ICE Arabica stocks.
The longer-term picture remains less straightforward. ICE Arabica inventories remain extremely low, the futures curve is still inverted, 2027 is expected to be an off-year in Brazil's Arabica biennial cycle, and the early flowering still has to translate into successful fruit setting. Persistent humidity raises disease concerns, while excessive spring heat could interfere with crop development. In Central America, El Salvador is already reporting weather-related concerns ahead of the upcoming harvest.
The market is therefore beginning to distinguish between three separate issues: current physical availability, the timing of future supply and the eventual size of the next crop. Current availability is clearly improving. The next Brazilian crop may arrive earlier. Its final production potential, however, remains much less certain.
For now, the first two factors appear to carry greater weight in futures pricing. Accelerating Brazilian exports, recovering Robusta stocks and expectations for upcoming new-crop supply are outweighing the support provided by low Arabica certified inventories.
Technical Levels to Watch
For December Arabica, the 274-275-cent area remains the immediate technical reference after several recent attempts to break lower failed to generate sustained follow-through. A decisive move beneath this area would shift attention toward approximately 272.60 cents, followed by 268.80 cents and the broader 268-270-cent region.
On the upside, the market first needs to recover the 281-283-cent area, where Monday's rebound failed. A stronger technical improvement would require a move above approximately 287.30 cents, followed by 291.10 cents.
The market remains heavily oversold after losing almost 60 cents from the August high, leaving room for technical rebounds. However, until Arabica can regain and hold above the first resistance zone, improving physical availability and expectations of earlier future supply are likely to remain the dominant forces shaping the short-term trend.
