This meant historically strong pricing regardless of extreme variability in seasonal conditions across the country. It bodes well for 2026, as we head back into the northern hemisphere’s summer and the need for protein across the world continues to grow. The beef sector’s biggest uncertainty, as always, will be what the weather has in store.
Domestic cattle prices have improved markedly year on year in 2025, with demand managing to more than offset historically strong supply and cautious, at best, restocker support across southern Australia. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has averaged 762¢/kg for the year to date, an increase of 22% on the 2024 average, and currently 30% above the same week last year. Longer term, the EYCI will finish the year at about 9% above the five year average figure for the same week, and 28% above the 10 year price, but its calendar year average will still sit at about 4% below the five year data.
Most of the national price points tell a very similar story to above, with the main divergence between processor and feeder and restockers on the longer term prices, rather than year on year. Interestingly, despite the current demand dynamics, processor cows and heavy steers calendar year averages were 12% and 8% below the five year figures respectively, while restocker steers and feeder steers came in 6% and 3% above those longer term averages.
Animal or plant? EU countries at odds over protein strategy
A new record has already been set this year for Australian beef export volumes in a calendar year, despite one month of data still to come in. For the year to November, 1.398 million tonnes of beef have headed offshore, a 15% year on year increase, with all four of Australia’s top markets increasing their intake. Again, unsurprisingly, it has been the largest market, the US, driving the volumes, with its historically low herd and slowing slaughter creating a gap not only in their own market, but in those markets to which they also traditionally export beef.
America has imported 17% more Australian beef year on year so far in 2025, despite a 10% reciprocal tariff having been applied for a majority of the year, and the year to date total is 47% more than the five year average for the same period. Imports to China were up 43% year on year, and 35% above the longer term volumes, while total grainfed beef exports out of Australia jumped 19% as sustained new levels of cattle on feed and lotfeeding capacity become the norm in the sector, underpinning supply in variable seasons.
South Africa's beef sector, a key animal protein source, showed resilience in 2025 amid economic and biosecurity challenges. Cattle herd estimates hovered around 12–14 million head, with commercial operations dominant. Beef production reached 1 million tonnes (carcass weight), up slightly from prior years due to higher slaughter rates (2.8–3 million head), supported by live imports from Namibia and Botswana.Domestic consumption remained strong at ~1 million tonnes, with beef comprising ~20–25% of red meat intake (poultry leads at ~60%). Per capita beef consumption stayed ~18–20 kg, influenced by price sensitivity and competition from cheaper proteins.Imports supplemented supply (~100,000–150,000 tonnes, mainly frozen), while exports grew to ~40,000 tonnes (up 30% in some periods), targeting Middle East, Asia, and Africa despite FMD restrictions. Nationwide vaccination efforts aimed to restore export status.The market faced pressures from FMD outbreaks, high feed costs (eased later by good rains), and stagnant consumer spending, keeping producer prices subdued. Outlook into 2026: cautious optimism with potential recovery via exports, lower inputs, and improving demand if economic conditions stabilise. Beef remains vital for rural livelihoods and food security.
South Africa is projected to have a solid animal protein supply in 2026, dominated by poultry as the most affordable and abundant source, followed by beef, with pork and lamb in smaller volumes.Poultry production is forecast to grow steadily, reaching around 1.68–1.7 million tonnes (up ~2–4% from 2025), recovering from past HPAI outbreaks and supported by lower feed costs. It accounts for ~60% of meat consumption, providing reliable, price-sensitive protein.Beef output is expected at ~790,000–1.1 million tonnes (slight increase from 2025), aided by FMD vaccination efforts and live imports, though herd rebuilding and disease risks persist. Consumption remains strong at ~18–20 kg per capita.Pork and lamb contribute less, with pork stable/modestly growing and lamb around 100,000 tonnes.Overall supply meets demand (~2.9–3 million tonnes total meat), supplemented by imports, ensuring good availability amid economic pressures. Favourable rains and policy focus support sector resilience, though affordability challenges low-income access. Protein security looks stable for 2026.
