A 2021 study by Citigroup Inc. and the University of Oxford reported that 57 percent of jobs were at high risk of automation, although a 2013 paper by two of the same researchers predicted 47 percent. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report comes up with somewhat lower numbers, though it varies by country. In 2021, the World Economic Forum report came up with a number just less than 40 percent for the U.S. There are many other examples.
These are large numbers. Even more troubling, they’re all fairly similar — each of the studies seems to come to the conclusion that roughly half of all jobs are very vulnerable to automation. But don’t panic — nobody really knows how many jobs will be replaced by robots, or even what it means to be replaced.
Project to make agricultural robots smarter
What does it mean for a job to be lost to automation? Does it mean that a worker is rendered entirely obsolete as a worker, and is forced to go on the welfare rolls? Or does it mean that she loses her current job, with her current company? If a person gets a new job at a different company in the same industry for more pay, does it still count as a job loss? What about for 85 percent as much pay?
The studies are not clear about this. Usually, their basic methodology is to show some technology experts a description of a job — or the tasks that, on paper, a job is said to require — and then ask the experts whether they think technology will soon be able to do those tasks. But even assuming that the experts are correct — that there isn’t another AI winter or broad technological stagnation — nobody really knows what happens to a job whose tasks can be automated.
In their book, “Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence,” economists and AI specialists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb predict that few jobs will be entirely replaced by AI in the near future, but that many individual tasks will be automated. What happens to an employee who now has a machine to do half of her work for her, but who is still needed to do the other half? She might get a pay cut, but she also might get a raise, since she can now get more work done per hour than before. Her job description and job title might change, but if she’s earning more, she’s unlikely to mind.
In other words, the so-called risk posed by automation isn’t all downside — it has considerable upside as well.
Even more importantly, studies the ones cited above can’t say much about what automation does to the job market as a whole. It’s almost certain that as some jobs get automated, others will be created to take their place. Just consider all the new jobs that didn’t exist a few years or decades ago — social-media manager, data scientist or podcast producer. Additionally, those job categories that don’t end up getting fully automated might expand if the supply of workers available to do them increased — the nation might have fewer cashiers but more landscapers.
The studies also don’t account for income effects. Automation makes it cheaper to run a business, which can make the number of businesses proliferate. That means that even if each business employs fewer people for a particular job, the number of people doing that job can increase. A famous case of this is how ATMs were predicted to reduce the number of bank tellers. In fact, the number of tellers per branch did fall substantially, but banks opened a lot more branches, in part because ATMs made it cheaper to do so. As a result, the number of bank tellers actually increased steadily between 1980 and 2010 (though it has fallen somewhat since then, thanks in part to industry consolidation). Cashiers are another example — despite the advent of self-checkout machines, the number of humans working in the area has remained essentially constant:
12 jobs that robots will replace in the future
Based on the nature and type of these jobs, here is a rundown of the jobs that AI machines are most likely to perform in the future:
1. Customer service executives
Customer service executives don’t require a high level of social or emotional intelligence to perform. Many companies now rely on AI to answer FAQs and customer support questions. Chatbots are not only becoming a significant part of customer interaction. They also support a lot of internal queries, among others.
2. Bookkeeping and data entry
There is a chance you may not have heard of bookkeeping as a profession in a long time. Instead of using humans for data entry and bookkeeping, it makes sense for AI and ML (Machine Learning) to be introduced in the product cycle.
3. Receptionists
And with auto check-ins in both large and small hotels, there will be a lesser need for receptionists in the long run. Nowadays, even in fast food joints, people can place orders through communication screens or tabs. With AI’s introduction, there is a good chance that robots can handle ordering and other related functions.
4. Proofreading
While editing is a more complex job in terms of tonality, comprehension, and others, proofreading is much simpler. Detecting grammatical mistakes, sentence construction, and other errors can easily be automated through different apps. For example, Grammarly is one of the most famous apps that professionals use for this purpose.
5. Manufacturing and pharmaceutical work
This sector is probably the most extensive area where people are scared that AI will take over jobs. When the production process for most commodities produced today has been mechanized, the operational aspect can also be handled by AI.
Even in pharmaceutical labs, robots can work together with scientists providing a much safer environment. Scientists will no longer be putting their lives less at risk.
6. Retail services
Automated services have replaced people who carry out the way sales. From several merchants focussing on self-ordering and payment options, AI can very quickly be involved as well.
Robots are replacing retailer jobs in many shopping conglomerates to understand customers’ patterns. Moreover, the advanced data analysis of AI machines shows other products that customers might be interested in in the future.
7. Courier services
AI has introduced many social and economic changes to the delivery industry. It has streamlined various logistics and supply chain functions. Drones and robots are already taking over courier services. Aside from the manufacturing industry, the transport sectors will be most affected when robotic automation booms in the future years.
8. Doctors
We are already witnessing robot-surgeons perform critical operations worldwide, and it’s only a matter of time before they completely replace us. Robotic doctors will make more accurate and effective treatments for the patients compared to their human counterparts. There is also less chance of infection due to more sterile measures and no room for human error.
9. Soldiers
Military professionals are sure that future battlefields will consist of robots that can follow orders without constant supervision. Robots are significantly being used in military operations for various tasks such as surveillance, intelligence, and many more.
Recently, the head of the UK military stated that “autonomous robots could soon form a quarter of the British army by 2030.”
10. Taxi and bus drivers
There is a 98% chance that this sector will be completely automated. Self-driving cars are already here, and it won’t be long before fully autonomous vehicles take over us.
As per the Los Angeles Times, self-driving trucks could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next ten years.
11. Market research analysts
Research analysts are crucial for every organization. They conduct market research to increase the performance of their business. AI-enabled robots are gaining popularity in this sector because of the comprehensive data that they provide.
12. Security guards
AI has made substantial advancements in the field of physical security. For example, Yelp’s security robot can inspect a building with its high-definition camera. It also has a directional mic and infrared sensor that can detect any suspicious activity. There is an 84% chance that AI will fully automate this sector in the future.
2 jobs that AI can’t replace
Human creativity knows no limits. Strategic thinking, thought leadership, conflict resolution and negotiation, emotional intelligence, and empathy are qualities in jobs that AI cannot replace at any point in time.
Following are some of the professions which would stand the test of time:
1. Human resource managers
A company’s Human Resources department will always need a human to manage interpersonal conflict. Humans possess non-cognitive and reasoning skills. Robots cannot understand human emotions; hence this job won’t be replaced by robots soon.
This sector will grow 9% by 2024. The likelihood that robots will take over this sector is 0.55%.
2. Writers
Writers have to ideate and produce original written content. Every piece of writing is unique. Machines can never personalize the way humans do. They cannot relate to other humans. Writers need to have creativity and empathy, which AI won’t be replacing soon.
AIs can do some of this with pre-programming, but robots can never take over the creative side.
3. Lawyers
Being a lawyer implies being smart enough to bend the rules in your favor. A robot will never know the precise point to hit the opposite party with the right argument. Robots cannot have the emotional intelligence to persuade people. A robot cannot reason with another human being.
However, robots can help in terms of processing evidence.
4. Chief executives
Chief executives have to look after a broad spectrum of operations. They need to motivate vast teams of people working for them. Every leader is integrated with a myriad of leadership skills. There is no absolute formula for being the best leader and no fundamental algorithm to teach the machines.
Robots cannot understand a person’s feelings or state of mind and cannot replace this job.
5. Scientists
There is a lot more to a scientist than just performing wet-lab experiments. The countless hours in research, the curious trait to invent cannot be replicated by any possible machine. Robots can help analyze data for scientists, but robots cannot develop or be very creative.
6. Clergyman
A clergy needs to have the power to guide and preach to his audience. He should have empathy, emotion, and faith to inspire other people. One cannot teach a robot to instill confidence in other human beings.
But it would be amusing to see an AI-enabled priest in the future.
7. Psychiatrists ( this is surely a mistake)
Even the best scientists and doctors in the world do not understand completely how a human brain is wired. To connect to every individual, it takes extreme empathy and compassion. Robots can never understand the human mind. Robots cannot express feelings or have compassion for others.
So it is quite impossible to have a robot psychiatrist in the foreseeable future.
8. Event planners
Planners have to coordinate and negotiate with other people to make things come together. Event planning needs creativity and coordination. Do you think a machine can ever have coordination and organizational skills? Certainly not. Thus, this job is unlikely to be taken over by robots.
9. Graphic designers
Graphic design is both artistic and technical. It takes an immense sense of understanding to comprehend what your client wants. Every consumer’s requirements are unique, and a machine cannot possibly do so. Like writing, it has to be original and created as per the requirements.
Robots can never have these skills or the creativity required to operate.
10. Public relations managers
PR managers need to rely on a network of relationships and contacts to create buzz for the clients. They have to raise awareness around an issue and raise funds. PR managers should have a connection with people to make them participate in the campaign. This requirement makes it a safe position for humans in the future.
11. Software developers
Software development is hard enough for even human beings to do. It requires a tremendous amount of time and skill investment to create applications or software. Since different clients have different demands, the product has to be customized and perfect. It will be hard for AI to replicate the work and make it responsive.
12. Project managers
The project manager is responsible for leading the project from start to finish. They must keep constant communication with all others on the project and are required to be on-call at all times. AI can help project managers to a great extent. It will lead to increased project success rates. But it is improbable that AI will replace project managers. On the other side, activities where the schedules are continually changing, and there is no exact pattern, robots will not be able to master.
With an increasing dependency on technology for these functions, human involvement will be redundant for future jobs. But does the future look that bleak for everyone who has a job?
More fundamentally, automation of one sort or another has been happening for centuries — machine tools, steam shovels, word processors, street sweepers, and plenty of other machines are just forms of automation. If you did a study like the ones listed above in 1900, you would have found that almost any job at the time had some tasks that machines would someday perform. And yet, most people still have a job:
To really know how automation will affect employment levels, wages and inequality, you need a macroeconomic model, and you need lots of assumptions about how technology affects companies’ costs, workers’ productivity and consumers’ preferences. All of those things introduce huge amounts of uncertainty. Meanwhile, studies like the ones listed above are helpful and informative, and many of them contain a lot of interesting data about the relationship between technology and economy — but they don’t tell you whether your livelihood is really at risk.
