World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update  17th March  2025

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 17th March 2025

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predicts that the weakening La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions within a month, lasting through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer of 2025. La Niña, marked by cooler Pacific waters and drier conditions, peaked in December 2024 and January 2025 but is now fading. Despite this shift, meteorologists like Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien and USDA’s Brad Rippey remain wary of drought risks for spring and summer, especially in the Southwest and Plains, where dry conditions persist from a La Niña-influenced fall and winter. Snodgrass notes that last year’s El Niño brought a wet spring, but this year’s dry fall and fading La Niña could lead to precipitation extremes. Severe weather, like recent dust storms and winds across the Plains, underscores ongoing dryness, with 55% of corn, 46% of soybean, 33% of cotton, and 27% of winter wheat areas currently in drought. Meanwhile, stormy weather in the central U.S. and Midwest may delay spring fieldwork due to excessive rain, creating a stark contrast with drought-stricken regions.
The absence of a subtropical jet this winter fueled dryness in the Southwest and Northwest, and Snodgrass hopes additional storm systems by early April could ease early-season drought risks, despite their hazards. However, if moisture doesn’t reach the Southwest and Plains by May, drought could worsen into summer, with only sporadic convective storms offering limited relief. East of the Mississippi River, including parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota, repeated storms may tighten planting windows, while the Plains risk missing out if storm activity stays eastward—something Snodgrass says to watch via storm chaser patterns through June. Rippey echoes concerns about balancing drought and flooding impacts on farmers this spring.

In Bolivia’s Santa Cruz region, a critical farming hub, a worsening fuel shortage is threatening farmers’ ability to harvest crops, posing risks to an economy increasingly reliant on agriculture. Reuters reports that the crisis, driven by a decade-long decline in foreign currency reserves and diminishing local gas production, has led to long queues at fuel stations. President Luis Arce’s government, struggling to maintain price caps through subsidies, faces mounting pressure as the situation escalates.
Soybean farmer Joel Eizaguirre warns that without fuel, producers risk deeper debt and may abandon farming, impacting the broader economy. Jaime Fernando Hernandez of ANAPO, the oilseed and wheat group, highlights that insufficient diesel for machinery could lead to significant losses of soy, corn, and sorghum, disrupting livestock, poultry, dairy, and egg production, with potentially “catastrophic” consequences for food security. To mitigate the crisis, the government has authorized the state energy firm YPFB to use cryptocurrency for fuel import payments. Eizaguirre notes he’d rather pay higher prices—referencing the parallel exchange rate of 11 bolivianos per dollar versus the official 6.86—than face shortages that jeopardize harvests and winter planting.

The silver lining of the cloud of agricultural trade tension between China and the United States (US), is that there is an opportunity for exporters across the world to supply to the Chinese market. China announced retaliatory 10% tariffs on US sorghum, soya beans, pork, beef, aquatic produce, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; together with a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, maize, and cotton. China is a key global net importer, with its agricultural imports accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. China’s top imported products include soya beans, beef, various fruits, maize, poultry, and sorghum, amongst others. South Africa remains the only African country on the list of China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers. Nonetheless, South Africa only accounts for a fraction of China’s agricultural imports, and there is plenty of opportunity for expansion. Although South Africa remains a net exporter of various agricultural products, there are still many households that are food insecure. This challenge requires suitable policy responses to address the access component of food security, especially for households with no regular income sources. Mitigation also requires coordinated and effectively targeted effort to grow the country’s economy, address unemployment, and providing suitable support to vulnerable households.

Sri Lanka launched a wildlife census on Saturday to count monkeys, peacocks, and giant squirrels in response to farmers’ complaints about significant agricultural losses. Agriculture, vital to 8% of the economy and employing 8.1 million people, is under threat, particularly in the coconut sector, where Sri Lanka ranks as the world’s fourth-largest exporter of coconut products, alongside producing 3 billion cashew and other nuts yearly. Deputy Minister Namal Karunaratne reported a 20% loss in total agricultural output, including 90 million coconuts annually, due to crop destruction by these animals, driving some farmers to abandon their livelihoods. The census aims to assess animal population density in farming areas to inform management policies. In Dambulla, 72-year-old farmer Edirisinghe Arachchilage Gnanasena recorded 45 monkeys, six giant squirrels, and nine peacocks in just five minutes on his eight-acre farm, where he battles ongoing losses of coconuts, mangoes, and beans. Despite using air guns and firecrackers, the animals persist, adapting to deterrents. Farmers link the surge in wildlife to habitat loss, a human-induced problem. The initiative follows a February incident where a monkey triggered a nationwide blackout, underscoring the urgency. Gnanasena hopes the census leads to sustainable solutions.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 9th March 2025

The National Coffee Association (NCA) has urged the Trump administration to exempt coffee from tariffs, warning that existing duties on Canada and Mexico could raise U.S. coffee prices by up to 50%. In a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, NCA President Bill Murray emphasized that, unlike other goods, coffee has no domestic alternative, making tariffs disruptive rather than protective. Representing over 200 members across the coffee supply chain, the NCA highlighted the industry’s $343 billion annual contribution to the U.S. economy and its importance to three-quarters of Americans who drink coffee regularly. The North American coffee sector relies on integrated operations across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, but most coffee types are excluded from the USMCA trade agreement, exposing them to a looming 25% tariff. This has sparked uncertainty in the industry. The NCA also cautioned against tariffs on coffee-producing countries like Brazil, Colombia, and others in Central and South America—key U.S. suppliers—predicting even graver impacts. As the world’s top coffee importer and consumer, the U.S. faces additional pressure from rising wholesale prices, which hit over $4 per pound in February, partly due to tariff speculation on South American imports.
Florence Cathiard, owner of Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte, a prominent Bordeaux winery in France, expressed alarm over U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat on March 13, 2025, to impose 200% tariffs on European wines and alcoholic products. This threat, a retaliation to the EU’s planned tax on American whiskey, could triple the price of her wines in the U.S.—from $100 to $300 per bottle—making them unsellable. The chateau, which employs 60 people and sells over 20% of its 118,000 annual bottles to the U.S., fears ruin if the tariffs are enacted.
Cathiard hopes Trump’s stance is a negotiation tactic, referencing his book "The Art of the Deal," where he advises striking hard before compromising. The U.S. market is critical for her business, especially after losing China’s market three years ago, a gap partially offset by costly efforts in Southeast Asia. She sees no viable replacement for the U.S., dismissing Russia as an option. The French wine industry, already facing competition from low-wage Latin American producers, is banking on billionaire Bernard Arnault—known to Trump and invested in wine and cognac—to lobby against the tariffs, perhaps by leveraging his luxury goods empire. EU wine exports to the U.S., valued at 4.9 billion euros last year, represent 29% of total EU wine exports, with France and Italy dominating. Cathiard warns that if Trump follows through, it could spell the end for her chateau and others, clinging to hope that it’s mere posturing.

This week, the rand averaged R18.31/US$, strengthening by 0.7% w/w and by 2.1% y/y. The local currency firmed this morning, following some losses earlier this week from domestic political tensions over the Finance Minister’s revised national Budget. • The Brent crude oil price averaged US$69.97/barrel, down by 0.9% w/w and by 13% y/y. The price of brent crude oil dipped despite the positive demand outlook by the US Energy Information Administration. • Relative to February 2025, the price of Brent crude oil has decreased substantially, and the exchange rate has appreciated slightly. For the remainder of this month, the oil price is expected to decrease slightly and the exchange rate to remain somewhat stable. If there is no intervention by the DMRE, on 02 April 2025, the price of petrol (95 unleaded) is forecast to decrease by 105c/l, and diesel prices (500 and 50 ppm) could decrease by 97c/l. 

 This week, the yellow maize price averaged R4 853/ton, up by 1.9% w/w and by 14.4% y/y. The white maize price averaged R5 978/ton, up by 9.7% w/w and by 15% y/y. • The domestic maize prices got some support from the weaker rand earlier in the week. • In week-45 of the domestic 2024/25 MY, 11.049 million tons of white and yellow maize had cumulatively been delivered. In the same week, cumulative exports of white and yellow maize reached a combined 2.025 million tons. • The top three export destinations of white maize were Zimbabwe (756 495 tons), Namibia (189 842 tons), and Mozambique (82 254 tons). The top three destinations of yellow maize were Zimbabwe (397 738 tons), Eswatini (78 457 tons), and Mozambique (67 012 tons).

The soya bean price averaged R8 350/ton, down by 1.2% w/w and by 1.42% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R8 882/ton, down by 0.16% w/w and by 0.16% y/y. • The domestic oilseed prices weakened from the positive first forecast of the 2024/25 summer crop production season and bearish international prices. • Chicago soya bean prices traded lower, this was due to the impact of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-01 of the 2025/26 MY stood at 1 158 tons of soya bean and 2 990 tons of sunflower seed

 The wheat price averaged R6 157/ton, up by 0.9% w/w and by 2.9% y/y. • Wheat prices received support from the rand weakness earlier in the week. • In week-23 of the 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 1.784 million tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 758 160 tons, with the 368 184 tons coming from Russia, 142 276 tons coming from Lithuania, and 83 568 tons coming from Latvia.


 

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Commodities March 16

Tin 6.74% 35,624.00 USD
Zinc 1.78% 2,956.77 USD
Cocoa 1.65% 6,520.00 GBP
Nickel 1.36% 16,445.00 USD
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 1.34% 4.09 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,986.88
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
3/15/2025
Palladium
966.00
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
3/14/2025
Platinum
995.50
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
3/14/2025
Silver
33.75
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
3/14/2025
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
4.09
1.34%
0.05
USD per MMBtu
3/14/2025
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
3/14/2025
Heating Oil
57.33
0.46%
0.26
USD per 100 Liter
3/14/2025
Coal
97.50
-1.02%
-1.00
per Ton
3/14/2025
RBOB Gasoline
2.15
0.65%
0.01
per Gallone
3/14/2025
Oil (Brent)
70.65
0.71%
0.50
USD per Barrel
3/14/2025
Oil (WTI)
67.20
0.67%
0.45
USD per Barrel
3/14/2025
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,678.04
-0.93%
-25.21
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Lead
2,066.85
0.82%
16.85
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Copper
9,759.00
0.58%
56.50
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Nickel
16,445.00
1.36%
220.00
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Zinc
2,956.77
1.78%
51.77
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Tin
35,624.00
6.74%
2,248.00
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.67
1.17%
0.01
USc per lb.
3/14/2025
Oats
3.78
7.08%
0.25
USc per Bushel
3/4/2025
Lumber
646.00
1.25%
8.00
per 1.000 board feet
3/14/2025
Coffee
3.92
-2.11%
-0.08
USc per lb.
3/13/2025
Cocoa
6,520.00
1.65%
106.00
GBP per Ton
3/13/2025
Live Cattle
2.03
0.52%
0.01
USD per lb.
3/14/2025
Lean Hog
0.87
1.23%
0.01
USc per lb.
3/14/2025
Corn
4.43
-2.58%
-0.12
USc per Bushel
3/13/2025
Feeder Cattle
2.82
0.54%
0.02
USc per lb.
3/14/2025
Milk
18.54
-0.16%
-0.03
USD per cwt.sh.
3/14/2025
Orange Juice
2.59
-1.46%
-0.04
USc per lb.
3/14/2025
Palm Oil
4,750.00
-0.48%
-23.00
Ringgit per Ton
3/14/2025
Rapeseed
468.75
-0.53%
-2.50
EUR per Ton
3/14/2025
Rice
13.55
-1.88%
-0.26
per cwt.
3/12/2025
Soybean Meal
298.10
-0.63%
-1.90
USD per Ton
3/14/2025
Soybeans
9.99
1.34%
0.13
USc per Bushel
3/13/2025
Soybean Oil
0.41
-0.02%
0.00
USD per lb.
3/13/2025
Wheat
223.25
-1.22%
-2.75
USc per Ton
3/14/2025
Sugar
0.19
-0.10%
0.00
USc per lb.
3/14/2025