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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) predicts that the weakening La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions within a month, lasting through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer of 2025. La Niña, marked by cooler Pacific waters and drier conditions, peaked in December 2024 and January 2025 but is now fading. Despite this shift, meteorologists like Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien and USDA’s Brad Rippey remain wary of drought risks for spring and summer, especially in the Southwest and Plains, where dry conditions persist from a La Niña-influenced fall and winter. Snodgrass notes that last year’s El Niño brought a wet spring, but this year’s dry fall and fading La Niña could lead to precipitation extremes. Severe weather, like recent dust storms and winds across the Plains, underscores ongoing dryness, with 55% of corn, 46% of soybean, 33% of cotton, and 27% of winter wheat areas currently in drought. Meanwhile, stormy weather in the central U.S. and Midwest may delay spring fieldwork due to excessive rain, creating a stark contrast with drought-stricken regions.
The absence of a subtropical jet this winter fueled dryness in the Southwest and Northwest, and Snodgrass hopes additional storm systems by early April could ease early-season drought risks, despite their hazards. However, if moisture doesn’t reach the Southwest and Plains by May, drought could worsen into summer, with only sporadic convective storms offering limited relief. East of the Mississippi River, including parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota, repeated storms may tighten planting windows, while the Plains risk missing out if storm activity stays eastward—something Snodgrass says to watch via storm chaser patterns through June. Rippey echoes concerns about balancing drought and flooding impacts on farmers this spring.
The silver lining of the cloud of agricultural trade tension between China and the United States (US), is that there is an opportunity for exporters across the world to supply to the Chinese market. China announced retaliatory 10% tariffs on US sorghum, soya beans, pork, beef, aquatic produce, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; together with a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, maize, and cotton. China is a key global net importer, with its agricultural imports accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. China’s top imported products include soya beans, beef, various fruits, maize, poultry, and sorghum, amongst others. South Africa remains the only African country on the list of China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers. Nonetheless, South Africa only accounts for a fraction of China’s agricultural imports, and there is plenty of opportunity for expansion. Although South Africa remains a net exporter of various agricultural products, there are still many households that are food insecure. This challenge requires suitable policy responses to address the access component of food security, especially for households with no regular income sources. Mitigation also requires coordinated and effectively targeted effort to grow the country’s economy, address unemployment, and providing suitable support to vulnerable households.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 9th March 2025
This week, the rand averaged R18.31/US$, strengthening by 0.7% w/w and by 2.1% y/y. The local currency firmed this morning, following some losses earlier this week from domestic political tensions over the Finance Minister’s revised national Budget. • The Brent crude oil price averaged US$69.97/barrel, down by 0.9% w/w and by 13% y/y. The price of brent crude oil dipped despite the positive demand outlook by the US Energy Information Administration. • Relative to February 2025, the price of Brent crude oil has decreased substantially, and the exchange rate has appreciated slightly. For the remainder of this month, the oil price is expected to decrease slightly and the exchange rate to remain somewhat stable. If there is no intervention by the DMRE, on 02 April 2025, the price of petrol (95 unleaded) is forecast to decrease by 105c/l, and diesel prices (500 and 50 ppm) could decrease by 97c/l.
This week, the yellow maize price averaged R4 853/ton, up by 1.9% w/w and by 14.4% y/y. The white maize price averaged R5 978/ton, up by 9.7% w/w and by 15% y/y. • The domestic maize prices got some support from the weaker rand earlier in the week. • In week-45 of the domestic 2024/25 MY, 11.049 million tons of white and yellow maize had cumulatively been delivered. In the same week, cumulative exports of white and yellow maize reached a combined 2.025 million tons. • The top three export destinations of white maize were Zimbabwe (756 495 tons), Namibia (189 842 tons), and Mozambique (82 254 tons). The top three destinations of yellow maize were Zimbabwe (397 738 tons), Eswatini (78 457 tons), and Mozambique (67 012 tons).
The soya bean price averaged R8 350/ton, down by 1.2% w/w and by 1.42% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R8 882/ton, down by 0.16% w/w and by 0.16% y/y. • The domestic oilseed prices weakened from the positive first forecast of the 2024/25 summer crop production season and bearish international prices. • Chicago soya bean prices traded lower, this was due to the impact of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-01 of the 2025/26 MY stood at 1 158 tons of soya bean and 2 990 tons of sunflower seed
The wheat price averaged R6 157/ton, up by 0.9% w/w and by 2.9% y/y. • Wheat prices received support from the rand weakness earlier in the week. • In week-23 of the 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 1.784 million tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 758 160 tons, with the 368 184 tons coming from Russia, 142 276 tons coming from Lithuania, and 83 568 tons coming from Latvia.
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