Central to it is the emergence of artificial intelligence-based technologies such as robotics, machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision and speech recognition — collectively called cognitive technologies.
Companies and researchers are rapidly bringing new products and services to market and transforming entire industries.
The defining quality of these technologies is that they allow machines to be used for physical and mental tasks that were previously only the domain of humans. Some of these technologies have proven to be more productive than human labour and have various points of application across the economy, from agriculture to medicine, banking and more.
The anticipated increases in productivity could no doubt provide a much-needed boost to global economic growth and result in significant socioeconomic benefits. As such, use of these technologies will increasingly be of focus for private and public organisations across the globe over the coming decades.
South African policy makers and business leaders will therefore have to lay the ground for accelerated uptake of these technologies for the country to remain internationally competitive and relevant.
Rapid development and large-scale deployment of cognitive technologies is likely to have a significant effect not only on our everyday lives but also on many livelihoods. A foreshadow of what may arise if introduction of the technologies is badly managed can perhaps be seen in the first industrial revolution in Britain from the late-1700s to the mid-1800s.
The first industrial revolution was driven by the introduction of machinery to the workplace and resulted in significant job losses in Britain’s textiles industry, mainly due to hand-weaving jobs being made obsolete by weaving machinery. One response to this was the formation of the Luddite movement, which organised the physical destruction of machinery that had replaced workers.
It is not far-fetched to predict that a similarly negative response to new technologies could arise in the fourth industrial revolution. Research has shown that cognitive technologies could eliminate up to 35% of existing jobs in the UK and up to 47% of existing jobs in the US over the next 20 years.
Low-skilled jobs are deemed to be at most risk, particularly those involving simple and repetitive tasks.
Considering the structure of SA’s economy and its high number of low-skilled workers, it is not unthinkable that large-scale introduction of these technologies could affect the local workforce even more drastically than is estimated in more developed nations such as the US and UK.
Socioeconomic instability could become the order of the day if pressure to implement these technologies results in extensive job losses and reduced job creation.
Such a situation would probably trigger a neo-Luddite crisis and significant opposition to further expansion of cognitive technologies in the workplace.
While it must be noted that some degree of job loss is inevitable, the increased prevalence of cognitive technologies will not be entirely negative. Several predictable positives and opportunities will arise from them, and many other unpredictable benefits will develop over time.
If strategically and pro-actively implemented, fourth industrial revolution technologies have the potential to lower the cost and risk of hiring new employees, while also freeing up time for existing employees to upskill and find new ways of adding value to their workplaces (in the public and private sector alike), carefully planned phasing in of cognitive technologies would therefore be more favourable than reactive implementation with no regard for job losses and other negative socioeconomic outcomes.
Organisations considering implementing the technologies should strive to complete clear cost-benefits analyses of the technologies with a view to primarily investing and implementing where the most significant returns would be received with minimal workforce destabilisation.
Implementation of the technologies also has significant potential to create new opportunities in the knowledge economy. For example, new businesses and human jobs could be created by specialising in the development of products and services that further improve cognitive technology efficiency.
A key guiding principle for public and private decision makers could be to seek ways in which collaboration between humans and machines can be more effective than when tasks are done solely by one or the other party.
Getting this right will be critical to incentivising society to embrace these technologies, while ensuring the South African economy remains globally competitive and relevant for decades to come.
It is critical that SA’s public and private sector leadership acknowledge the global effect these technologies will have.
The private sector will probably lead investment, roll-out and implementation of cognitive technologies, while the government will need to play a leading role in developing effective policies and legislation that enable the technologies to benefit all sectors of society in the long term.
The EU has already started on this path and set up a committee that put through draft regulations for universal basic income and "personhood" status for robots; and Bill Gates has also recently proposed that robots that take people’s jobs should pay taxes to make up for government revenue shortfalls.
It is important for prominent members of all sectors in society to lead the way in communicating the importance of the technologies in keeping the economy globally competitive.
The pace of global innovation and roll-out should also not be underestimated. SA must therefore ensure it positions itself to thrive in a future world where it will be necessary to embrace these technologies, and implement them in a net socioeconomically positive manner.
Challenges will certainly be faced in policy development and technology implementation. However, there is a window of opportunity for SA to be an early mover and a continental pioneer in the adoption of cognitive technology.
Proactively preparing for the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution by learning from the past and planning for an economically inclusive future, will enable the country to make the most of the available opportunities.
• Skhosana is a strategy consultant and Afro-optimist who believes science and technology are key to positive transformation in Africa. BD LIVE
