For decades, Agoa has allowed South African citrus to enter the US market duty‐free, giving the industry a significant advantage in a competitive global environment. As Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers Association of South Africa, told Daily Maverick:
“Without Agoa, South Africa would lose its competitive edge in the US market. Agoa keeps our citrus tariff‐free, allowing us to compete with southern hemisphere rivals such as Peru and Chile – countries that already benefit from lower costs and duty‐free access. If removed, we risk losing thousands of rural jobs and over a billion rands in export revenue, as currently 35,000 local jobs and an additional 20,000 jobs in the US depend on these exports.”
Chadwick’s comments underscore the industry’s heavy reliance on Agoa, which has helped South African citrus maintain its foothold in a market that received 110,415 tons of produce in 2022/23 – roughly 9% of the nation’s total citrus exports.
Citrus at a crossroads
While the US accounts for about 9% of South African citrus exports, markets in Europe, Asia and Africa also contribute significantly to the sector’s success. However, the US remains vital due to its large consumer base, purchasing power and the preferential access offered by Agoa.
Over the past five years, exports to the US have nearly doubled since 2017, reflecting strong global demand for high-quality produce.
Yet, the potential removal of tariff‐free status poses a serious threat. Economic models suggest that even a modest tariff increase could force US buyers to shift to suppliers in regions such as Peru, Mexico or Chile – regions that already benefit from similar trade arrangements.
Analysts project that a loss of Agoa benefits could depress export volumes by up to 10%, with cascading effects on rural employment and regional economic stability.
Industry perspectives: beyond the farm
Though on-the-ground voices remain critical, industry insiders and economists urge a broader view. Gerrit van der Merwe, managing director of citrus growth exporter ALG Estates, outlined some immediate concerns in an interview with Daily Maverick.
“South Africa primarily exports citrus from Citrusdal, and now we will probably be charged nine US cents per kilogram. Competitors such as Peru and Chile will absorb the cost increase, and we hope there is an amicable solution.”
Van der Merwe’s remarks highlight the direct cost pressures that could destabilise a sector employing tens of thousands. However, independent economic analysis suggests that the impact could extend well beyond pricing.
Furthermore, government trade officials are reportedly in early discussions to explore alternative market access arrangements. Although no concrete measures have been announced, industry watchers believe that negotiations with emerging markets in Asia could help cushion the blow.
South Africa’s Trade Reality: Why AGOA and U.S. Sanctions No Longer Matter
Policy and practice
The potential loss of Agoa benefits and the broader implications of US sanctions have placed the citrus industry at a pivotal juncture. While the current framework has enabled South African citrus to thrive, its future depends on both maintaining preferential access and adapting to a shifting global trade environment. The industry’s success will not only be measured in export figures but also in its ability to support the livelihoods of rural communities and diversify its market reach.
Stakeholders – including the Citrus Growers Association, government representatives, and independent trade experts – are calling for a collaborative approach. The focus must shift toward negotiating resilient trade policies while simultaneously exploring alternative markets, such as India and China, to ensure long-term growth and stability.
Chadwick told FoodforMzansi that citrus exports to India have already tripled since 2020 to 30,000 tonnes, although the 30% import tariff is rather steep.
In this uncertain environment, the resilience of South African citrus will ultimately be determined by the industry’s capacity to innovate, adapt and engage in proactive policy discussions. The future of the sector – and the economic wellbeing of countless rural communities – hinges on decisive action and a commitment to preserving the competitive advantages that have long underpinned South Africa’s presence in the global market.
