Can you trust climate information? How and why powerful players are misleading the public
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Ten years ago, the world committed itself to keeping global warming well below 2°C (and preferably below 1.5°C) above the pre-industrial era.
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Ten years ago, the world committed itself to keeping global warming well below 2°C (and preferably below 1.5°C) above the pre-industrial era.
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Environmental phenomena such as climate change and its manifestations, including extreme weather events, are featuring more prominently on the risk radar of investors, banks and commercial farmers, as agricultural activity intensifies in order to provide sufficient food for a growing population.
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A global review of extreme heat has found that between May 2024 and May 2025, nearly half the world’s people (49% or 4 billion) suffered through an extra 30 days of temperatures that were hotter than those experienced 90% of the time between 1991 and 2020.





NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information calculates the global temperature anomaly every month based on preliminary data generated from authoritative datasets of temperature observations from around the globe. The major dataset, NOAAGlobalTemp version 6.0.0, uses comprehensive data collections of increased global area coverage over both land and ocean surfaces. NOAAGlobalTempv6.0.0 is a reconstructed dataset, meaning that the entire period of record is recalculated each month with new data. Based on those new calculations, the new historical data can bring about updates to previously reported values. These factors, together, mean that calculations from the past may be superseded by the most recent data and can affect the numbers reported in the monthly climate reports. The most current reconstruction analysis is always considered the most representative and precise of the climate system, and it is publicly available through Climate at a Glance.
The May 2025 global surface temperature was 1.10°C (1.98°F) higher than the 20th-century average. This was the second-warmest May since NOAA's records began in 1850 (176 years). Only May of 2024 was warmer, with a temperature 0.08°C (0.14°F) higher than 2025. The May 2025 global surface temperature was 0.10°C (0.18°F) higher than in 2020, which currently holds the third-warmest May on record. May 2020 notably marked the first time a May temperature reached 1.0°C (1.8°F) above the 20th-century average. The ten warmest Mays on record have all occurred since 2014. May 2025 also marked the 49th consecutive May with above-average global temperatures.
The global land-only surface temperature for May 2025 was also the second-highest in the 176-year record, with a temperature 1.61°C (2.90°F) higher than the 20th-century average. May 2024 was the warmest on record, with a temperature 1.63°C (2.93°F) higher than average. The global ocean-only May surface temperature was 0.88°C (1.58°F) higher than average — also the second-highest for May in the 176-year record. Only May 2024 was warmer (+0.98°C / +1.76°F).
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a weather phenomenon that can affect global weather patterns and influence global temperatures, persisted in a neutral phase (meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña were present) during May 2025. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (Southern Hemisphere winter).


A smoothed map of blended land and sea surface temperature anomalies is also available.
May temperatures were much warmer than average across much of the globe, in particular across most ocean areas and parts of every continent. Temperatures were most notable in northern North America, the central and southern parts of South America, the British Isles and surrounding ocean, northern and southwestern Asia, and across much of Antarctica and the Arctic region, where temperature departures were +1.5°C / +2.7°F or higher. Despite the unusual warmth across much of the globe, record-warm temperatures were limited to parts of the Arctic region, the British Isles and surrounding ocean, southwestern Asia, across parts of the western Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, and a small area in Mexico. Overall, approximately 7% of the world's surfaces had a record-high May temperature. This percentage is the second-highest on record for May, following the all-time record of 15% set in May 2024.
Cooler-than-average May temperatures were observed across India, parts of the northern Atlantic Ocean, eastern and southeastern Pacific Ocean, central and eastern Europe, and eastern Antarctica. As shown on the percentiles map, there were no land or ocean areas with record-cold temperatures in May.
Regionally, South America and Asia had their third-warmest May on record. While the Arctic had its fourth warmest, North America and Africa had their sixth- and tied seventh-warmest Mays, respectively. Europe, Oceania, and the Antarctic region had a warmer-than-average May; however, their May temperature did not rank among the 10 warmest Mays on record. Other regions with significant warmth in May included the Caribbean and Hawaiian regions, which recorded their fifth- and seventh-warmest Mays on record, respectively. Please note that both of these regions include the islands and their surrounding ocean.
Wine climate science: How weather changes your drink
Select national information is highlighted below:
| May | Anomaly | Rank (out of 176 years) |
Records | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year(s) | °C | °F | |||
| Global | |||||||
| Land | +1.61 | +2.90 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.63 | +2.93 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1867 | -1.10 | -1.98 | |||
| Ocean | +0.88 | +1.58 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +0.98 | +1.76 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.51 | -0.92 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +1.10 | +1.98 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.18 | +2.12 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.51 | -0.92 | |||
| Northern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +1.80 | +3.24 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.82 | +3.28 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1867 | -1.49 | -2.68 | |||
| Ties: 2020 | |||||||
| Ocean | +0.92 | +1.66 | Warmest | 3rd | 2024 | +1.20 | +2.16 |
| Coolest | 174th | 1917 | -0.55 | -0.99 | |||
| Ties: 2023 | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +1.30 | +2.34 | Warmest | 3rd | 2024 | +1.47 | +2.65 |
| Coolest | 174th | 1907 | -0.66 | -1.19 | |||
| Southern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +1.16 | +2.09 | Warmest | 8th | 2002 | +1.75 | +3.15 |
| Coolest | 169th | 1874 | -1.41 | -2.54 | |||
| Ocean | +0.85 | +1.53 | Warmest | 1st | 2025 | +0.85 | +1.53 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1904, 1911 | -0.49 | -0.88 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +0.91 | +1.64 | Warmest | 1st | 2025 | +0.91 | +1.64 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1874, 1911 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
| Antarctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +0.51 | +0.92 | Warmest | 24th | 1983 | +1.60 | +2.88 |
| Coolest | 153rd | 1943 | -1.20 | -2.16 | |||
| Arctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +2.31 | +4.16 | Warmest | 4th | 2019 | +2.54 | +4.57 |
| Coolest | 173rd | 1867 | -2.49 | -4.48 | |||
In the atmosphere, 500-millibar height pressure anomalies correlate well with temperatures at the Earth's surface. The average position of the upper-level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure—depicted by positive and negative 500-millibar height anomalies on the map—is generally reflected by areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.

Globally, the March–May 2025 surface temperature was 1.22°C (2.20°F) higher than the 20th-century average and was the second-warmest on record (out of 176 years). This value was only 0.05°C (0.09°F) cooler than the record set only the year prior (2024). The ten warmest March–May periods have all occurred since 2015.
The global land-only surface temperature during March–May was the highest on record, with a temperature 1.96°C (3.53°F) higher than average. This value surpassed the previous record set back in 2016 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). The global ocean-only surface temperature was 0.88°C (1.58°F)—the second-highest on record. Only March–May of 2024 was warmer (+1.00°C / +1.80°F).


A smoothed map of blended land and sea surface temperature anomalies is also available.
The March–May period is the meteorological spring for the Northern Hemisphere and autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere spring was the second-warmest on record, with a temperature 1.54°C (2.77°F) higher than average. This value was 0.08°C (0.14°F) shy of tying the record set in spring of 2024. The Southern Hemisphere autumn was also the second-warmest on record, with a temperature of 0.90°C (1.62°F) higher than average. The autumn of 2024 was warmer at +0.92°C (+1.66°F).
The March–May three-month period saw widespread warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the globe. The highest temperature departures, 2.0°C (3.6°F) or higher, were observed across significant portions of Asia and the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Record-high March–May temperatures were specifically noted in the British Isles and surrounding ocean, as well as in parts of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, southern Asia, and the Pacific, Indian, Atlantic and Southern Oceans.
In contrast, cooler-than-average March–May temperatures were present in some areas, including parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, India, the Southern Ocean off the coast of southern Argentina and Chile, and eastern Antarctica. However, no land or ocean areas had record-cold March–May temperatures.
The Arctic region, North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Oceania all saw their March–May temperatures rank among the five highest for March–May on record. Notably, Europe, Asia, and Oceania had their second-warmest March–May period on record. The Arctic region had its third-warmest spring. Although the Antarctic region experienced a warmer-than-average autumn, its autumn temperature did not place within the top 10 warmest autumns on record.
In addition, both the Hawaiian and Caribbean regions also had a warm spring. The Hawaiian region experienced its second-warmest spring on record, with a temperature 1.02°C (1.84°F) higher than average. This was surpassed only by the spring of 2017, which was 0.08°C (0.14°F) higher than 2025. The spring temperature for the Caribbean region tied as the third warmest on record.
Select national information is highlighted below:
| March-May | Anomaly | Rank (out of 176 years) |
Records | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year(s) | °C | °F | |||
| Global | |||||||
| Land | +1.96 | +3.53 | Warmest | 1st | 2025 | +1.96 | +3.53 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1867 | -1.05 | -1.89 | |||
| Ocean | +0.88 | +1.58 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.00 | +1.80 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.49 | -0.88 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +1.22 | +2.20 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.27 | +2.29 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.56 | -1.01 | |||
| Northern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +2.37 | +4.27 | Warmest | 1st | 2025 | +2.37 | +4.27 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1867 | -1.28 | -2.30 | |||
| Ocean | +0.91 | +1.64 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.15 | +2.07 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.54 | -0.97 | |||
| Ties: 2020 | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +1.54 | +2.77 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.62 | +2.92 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.71 | -1.28 | |||
| Southern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +1.02 | +1.84 | Warmest | 6th | 2002 | +1.32 | +2.38 |
| Coolest | 171st | 1917, 1960 | -0.80 | -1.44 | |||
| Ties: 2017 | |||||||
| Ocean | +0.87 | +1.57 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +0.89 | +1.60 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.51 | -0.92 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +0.90 | +1.62 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +0.92 | +1.66 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.52 | -0.94 | |||
| Antarctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +0.34 | +0.61 | Warmest | 25th | 1980 | +0.91 | +1.64 |
| Coolest | 152nd | 1960 | -0.84 | -1.51 | |||
| Ties: 1916, 1971, 1978 | |||||||
| Arctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +2.94 | +5.29 | Warmest | 3rd | 2019 | +3.41 | +6.14 |
| Coolest | 174th | 1867 | -1.94 | -3.49 | |||
The global average surface temperature for January–May 2025 was 1.25°C (2.25°F) higher than the 20th-century average, resulting in the second-warmest such period since NOAA's record began in 1850 (176 years). This was 0.05°C (0.09°F) cooler than the record set last year (January–May 2024). Statistical analysis by NCEI scientists indicates that 2025 is very likely (> 99% chance) to rank among the five warmest years on record.
During January–May 2025, much of the world's land and ocean surfaces were warmer than average. Record-high temperatures were observed across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and surrounding ocean, parts of the British Isles and surrounding ocean, the central and western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, southern Australia, and small areas across Asia and western Antarctica. In contrast, eastern Antarctica experienced cooler-than-average conditions during this five-month period.


A smoothed map of blended land and sea surface temperature anomalies is also available.
As shown on the anomalies map, the January–May temperatures across the Arctic were at least 2.0°C (3.6°F) higher than average. Averaged across the entire region, it was the second-warmest January–May on record, with a temperature 3.49°C (6.28°F) higher than average. Only January–May of 2016 was warmer (+3.69°C / +6.64°F). While the Antarctic's temperature was above average during this five-month period, it did not rank among the 10 warmest such periods on record.
In addition, Asia and Oceania both had their second-warmest January–May period, following their record-breaking years set back in 2020 and 2016, respectively. Europe recorded its third-warmest, Africa and South America their fourth, and North America its seventh-warmest January–May period.
Other regions of interest that had notable temperature records for the year-to-date were the Hawaiian and Caribbean regions. The Hawaiian region experienced its warmest January–May period on record. The Caribbean region's year-to-date temperature was the second-highest on record.
| January-May | Anomaly | Rank (out of 176 years) |
Records | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| °C | °F | Year(s) | °C | °F | |||
| Global | |||||||
| Land | +2.05 | +3.69 | Warmest | 1st | 2016, 2025 | +2.05 | +3.69 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1867 | -0.93 | -1.67 | |||
| Ties: 2016 | |||||||
| Ocean | +0.89 | +1.60 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.01 | +1.82 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.48 | -0.86 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +1.25 | +2.25 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.30 | +2.34 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.57 | -1.03 | |||
| Northern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +2.50 | +4.50 | Warmest | 2nd | 2016 | +2.53 | +4.55 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1867 | -1.10 | -1.98 | |||
| Ocean | +0.93 | +1.67 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.17 | +2.11 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.53 | -0.95 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +1.61 | +2.90 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +1.69 | +3.04 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1917 | -0.68 | -1.22 | |||
| Southern Hemisphere | |||||||
| Land | +1.04 | +1.87 | Warmest | 1st | 2019, 2025 | +1.04 | +1.87 |
| Coolest | 176th | 1861, 1879 | -0.71 | -1.28 | |||
| Ties: 2019 | |||||||
| Ocean | +0.86 | +1.55 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +0.90 | +1.62 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1911 | -0.50 | -0.90 | |||
| Land and Ocean | +0.90 | +1.62 | Warmest | 2nd | 2024 | +0.92 | +1.66 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1904 | -0.50 | -0.90 | |||
| Antarctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +0.33 | +0.59 | Warmest | 18th | 1980 | +0.71 | +1.28 |
| Coolest | 159th | 1960 | -0.68 | -1.22 | |||
| Ties: 1968 | |||||||
| Arctic | |||||||
| Land and Ocean | +3.49 | +6.28 | Warmest | 2nd | 2016 | +3.69 | +6.64 |
| Coolest | 175th | 1966 | -2.06 | -3.71 | |||
Precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) are augmented by data with greater spatial coverage from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP).


The maps shown below represent land-only precipitation anomalies and land-only percent of normal precipitation based on the GHCN dataset of land surface stations.


May saw varied precipitation patterns globally. Many regions experienced drier-than-average conditions, including parts of North and South America, as well as northern Europe, southwestern Asia, southern Australia and areas in Russia and China. Southern Alaska, the eastern U.S., northern and southern parts of South America, northern and southeastern Australia and widespread parts of Asia had wetter-than-average conditions. Preliminary data indicates that the May 2025 globe land, averaged as a whole, had the wettest May in the historical record, which spans from 1979 to present.
According to preliminary GPCP data, Asia experienced its wettest May on record, surpassing the May 2022 record. Africa had its second-wettest May on record, following the 1991 record. South America recorded its 10th wettest May, while the Caribbean and Hawaiian regions had their driest May on record.
Select national information is highlighted below:

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Droughts are becoming more severe and widespread across the globe. But it’s not just changing rainfall patterns that are to blame. The atmosphere is also getting thirstier.
In a new study published in Nature, my colleagues and I show that this rising “atmospheric thirst” – also known as atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) – is responsible for about 40% of the increase in drought severity over the last four decades (1981-2022).
Imagine rainfall as income and AED as spending. Even if your income (rainfall) stays the same, your balance goes into deficit if your spending (AED) increases. That’s exactly what’s happening with drought: the atmosphere is demanding more water than the land can afford to lose.
As the planet warms, this demand grows – drawing more moisture from soils, rivers, lakes, and even plants. With this growing thirst, droughts are getting more severe even where rain hasn’t significantly declined.
The process of AED describes how much water the atmosphere wants from the surface. The hotter, sunnier, windier and drier the air is, the more water it requires – even if there isn’t less rain.
So even in places where rainfall hasn’t changed much, we’re still seeing worsening droughts. This thirstier atmosphere is drying things out faster and more intensely and introducing more stress when this water is not available.
Our new analysis reveals that AED doesn’t just make existing droughts worse – it expands the areas affected by drought. From 2018 to 2022, the global land area experiencing drought rose by 74%, and 58% of that expansion was due to increased AED.
Our study highlights that the year 2022 stood out as the most drought-stricken year in over four decades. More than 30% of the world’s land experienced moderate to extreme drought conditions. In both Europe and east Africa, the drought was especially severe in 2022 – this was driven largely by a sharp increase in AED, which intensified drying even where rainfall hadn’t dropped significantly.
In Europe alone, widespread drying had major consequences: reduced river flows hindered hydropower generation, crop yields suffered due to water stress, plus many cities faced water shortages. This put unprecedented pressure on water supply, agriculture and energy sectors, threatening livelihoods and economic stability.
Wine climate science: How weather changes your drink
My team’s new research brings clarity to the dynamics of drought. We used high-quality global climate data, including temperature, wind speed, humidity and solar radiation – these are the key meteorological variables that influence how much water the atmosphere can draw from the land and vegetation. The team combined all these ingredients to measure AED – essentially, how “thirsty” the air is.
Then, using a widely recognised drought index that includes both rainfall and this atmospheric thirst, we could track when, where and why droughts are getting more severe. With this metric, we can calculate how much of that worsening is due to the atmosphere’s growing thirst.
The future implications of this increasing atmospheric thirst are huge, especially for regions already vulnerable to drought such as western and eastern Africa, western and south Australia, and the southwestern US where AED was responsible for more than 60% of drought severity over the past two decades.
Without factoring in AED during drought monitoring and planning, governments and communities may underestimate the true risk they face. With global temperatures expected to rise further, we can expect even more frequent and severe droughts. We need to prepare. That involves understanding and planning for this growing atmospheric thirst.
Driving drought
Knowing what is causing droughts in each specific location enables smarter climate adaptation. AED must be a central part of how we monitor, model and plan for drought.
Identifying the specific drivers of drought is essential for tailoring effective ways to cope with drought. If droughts are mainly due to declining rainfall, then the focus should be on water storage and conservation. But if AED is the main driver – as it is in many places now – then strategies must address evaporative loss (i.e. the amount of water lost from the surface and plants to the atmosphere) and plant water stress. This might involve planting drought-resistant crops, constructing irrigation systems that use water more efficiently, improving soil health or restoring habitats to keep moisture in the land.
As our research shows, rising AED – driven by global warming – is intensifying drought severity even where rainfall hasn’t declined. Ignoring it means underestimating risk.

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More frequent hot weather and droughts have dealt a significant blow to crop yields, especially for key grains like wheat, barley, and maize, according to a Stanford study published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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