“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period,” says the outlook, issued on Friday.
“Current predictions focus on the early- and mid-summer seasons and indicate wetter conditions over the interior of the country. The northeastern parts, however, at this stage indicate drier conditions extending through to the mid-summer period.”
The report said there was “significant uncertainty” about the timing and the prospects of the La Niña weather pattern, noting that the precipitation outlook for the summer rainfall regions hinged on “if and when” it materialises.
Global forecasts regarding La Niña — which typically heralds good rains in southern Africa — have been in a state of flux. Initial predictions saw it forming by now, but the date keeps getting pushed back and it is now forecast to be much weaker than previously believed.
Much of the region is parched after the blistering El Niño event of last summer, which decimated the staple maize and other crops, leaving millions of people in need of food aid in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.
In its latest forecast, the Crop Estimates Committee revised its forecast for South Africa’s 2023/24 maize crop down by 2% from its previous outlook. The domestic maize harvest is now seen as 22% lower than the previous season’s bumper crop.
El Niño may have ended, but its legacy is greater hunger in sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa still has enough maize for its own consumption and estimates suggest it could export 1.85 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year. However, the regional need is huge and estimates remain tentative.
“We are in a tricky season with many unknowns, and the recent downward revision of white maize has further complicated an already challenging season,” cautions Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber.
The outlook for the coming agricultural season is mixed.
“Above-normal rainfall is forecasted for the central parts and the southeastern coastal areas of the country during early and mid-summer seasons. This above-normal rainfall forecast for these summer rainfall regions will likely have a positive impact on crop and livestock production,” noted the Seasonal Climate Watch.
“However, below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the northeastern areas of the country including Limpopo, Mpumalanga and northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal.”
If there are delays to planting in Mpumalanga because of a dry start to summer this could push maize prices higher at a time when inflation including for food has been cooling.
The SA Weather Service last week warned that in the summer rainfall regions on the Highveld that are expected to be wetter and hotter than usual in the coming months, the public needed to be vigilant about extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, floods and heatwaves.
Read more: Highveld storm season looms — be vigilant, SA Weather Service urges
The bottom line is that it is expected to be hot and wet in some areas as summer descends and hot and dry in others — a perfect storm for extreme weather.
