The U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 11 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2020, at 1.072 billion bushels, down 69 million bushels from the May outlook and down 30 million bushels from a downwardly revised 1.102 billion bushels in 2018-19 (the 25-million-bushel decline in the 2019 carryover reflected a 25-million-bushel hike in estimated 2018-19 exports to 950 million bushels). As forecast, the 2020 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 976 million bushels in 2016 and compare with 1.022 billion bushels as the recent five-year average carryover.
The USDA forecast all-wheat production in 2019 at 1.903 billion bushels, up 6 million bushels from the May projection and up 19 million bushels from 1.884 billion bushels in 2018. The recent five-year average all-wheat outturn was 2.004 billion bushels.
The USDA in its June Crop Production report raised its forecast for winter wheat production by 5.99 million bushels, to 1,274,451,000 bushels. The hard red winter wheat crop was forecast at 794.395 million bushels, up 14.020 million bushels from the May projection and up 132.146 million bushels, or 20%, from 662.249 million bushels in 2018. The soft red winter wheat crop was forecast at 258.302 million bushels, down 6.263 million bushels from May and down 27.256 million bushels, or 10%, from 285.558 million bushels in 2018. Soft white winter wheat production was forecast at 199.355 million bushels, down 1.906 million bushels from May and down 17.43 million bushels, or 8%, from 216.785 million bushels in 2018. Hard white winter wheat production was forecast at 22.399 million bushels, up 139,000 bushels from May and up 3.052 million bushels, or 16%, from 19.347 million bushels in 2018.
The all-winter wheat production forecast at 1,274,451,000 bushels suggested a spring wheat forecast (including durum) at 628.549 million bushels compared with 700.061 million bushels in 2018.
With imports forecast at 140 million bushels, the USDA projected total wheat supply in 2019-20 at 3.145 billion bushels, down 19 million bushels from the May projection but up 22 million bushels from 2018-19.
The USDA forecast food use of wheat in 2019-20 at a record 965 million bushels, unchanged from May and up 5 million bushels from 2018-19. Seed use of wheat in 2019-20 was forecast at 68 million bushels, unchanged from May and compared with 62 million bushels in 2018-19.
The USDA forecast feed and residual use of wheat in 2019-20 at 140 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from the May outlook and up 90 million bushels from 50 million bushels in 2018-19.
Wheat exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 900 million bushels, unchanged from the May projection but down 50 million bushels from 950 million in 2018-19.
The USDA forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2019-20 at $5.10 a bushel, up 40¢ a bushel from the May projection but down 10¢ from $5.20 in 2018-19. In commentary accompanying the June WASDE, the USDA said, “The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019-20 corn supplies.”
