World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 9th September 2024

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 9th September 2024

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The United Nations' world food price index eased slightly in August, data released on Friday showed, as lower prices for sugar, meat and cereals more than offset higher dairy and vegetable oil prices.
The price index, compiled by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization to track the most globally traded food commodities, slipped to 120.7 points in August from a revised 121 in July.
The FAO index hit a three-year low in February this year as food prices retreated from a record peak set in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.The August value was 1.1% lower than its level a year ago and 24.7% below its peak from March 2022.In a separate report, the FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2024 by 2.8 million metric tons to 2.851 billion tons, putting it almost on a par with the previous year's output.The decrease largely reflects reduced prospects for coarse grain crops in the European Union, Mexico and Ukraine, thanks to hot and dry weather conditions.The forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2024/25 was lowered by 4.7 million tons versus July to 2.852 billion tons, reflecting a 0.2% increase from 2023/24.
The agency also cut its forecast for world cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2025 by 4.5 million tons to 890 million.
Bad weather has walloped wine production in France, with output expected to be 39.3 million hectolitres this year, down 18% from last year, the farm ministry said on Friday. The figure is below an initial range of 40 million-43 million projected last month. The lower wine production was particularly high in the Jura, Charentes, Val de Loire and Beaujolais-Bourgogne regions, the ministry said in a statement. "This decline is due to particularly unfavourable climatic conditions which have reduced the production potential in almost all wine-growing areas," it said.
Like other crops, including cereals, grapes have suffered from heavy rainfall in France over the past year. These helped the spread of diseases among vineyards, the ministry said. In addition, many of them experienced so-called coulure, a fall in flowers and young berries due to humid and cool conditions during flowering. The revised forecast was 11% below the five-year average of 44.2 million hectolitres. A hectolitre is the equivalent of 100 litres, or 133 standard wine bottles. Wine, along with spirits, is one of France's biggest export earners. The sector is facing declining domestic consumption, which has hit some production areas such as Bordeaux, contributing to recent protests by farmers. Winemakers in the Bordeaux region agreed on a plan to uproot 8,000 hectares (19,768 acres) of vines this year to meet the drop in output. This, combined with losses due to coulure, mildew and hailstorms are set to lead to a 10% reduction in output after a drop in 2023.
Ghana is piloting a system that traces cocoa beans from farm to port as it gears up for a new EU law banning the import of commodities linked to deforestation, a government official said on Thursday. The landmark new law, which could in time reshape global commodity markets, comes into effect end of December. It requires EU importers of coffee, cocoa, soy, palm, timber, beef and rubber to prove their supply chains are not contributing to deforestation anywhere in the world, or be fined up to 4% of their turnover. "We have polygon-mapped all the cocoa in Ghana, established an end-to-end traceability system and successfully piloted (it)," Michael Amoah, from Ghanaian cocoa regulator Cocobod, told a webinar organised by environmental non-profit groups Fern and Mighty Earth. Gearing up to comply with the new EU law is critical for Ghana. About 60% of the cocoa the country grows is exported to the EU and the industry employs about 17%, opens new tab of Ghana's working population. Nearly all the farmers growing cocoa in Ghana, the world's second largest cocoa producer, are smallholders based in remote rural regions who, without government support, might struggle to comply with the law's requirements. These include providing buyers of their goods with geolocation co-ordinates that prove their farms are not located on land deforested after 2020. "We are hoping what we've done will enable us to capture a greater percent of the EU market," said Amoah.

There are a number of key trends driving changes in animal protein consumption in Europe. Constrained availability will have the biggest impact on animal protein consumption going forward, as it will require consumers to adjust their choices. Overall animal protein production in Europe is expected to decline in the coming years. Policies and standards around environmental and social issues are intensifying and exacerbate the pressure on animal protein supply chains, which are already challenged by a structural lack of profitability. A sustained loss of competitiveness in export markets will challenge pork production, while beef production will continue its structural decline. Also, increasing animal welfare standards will limit the long-term growth of poultry production. Consumer preferences are also evolving, creating change in what, where, and how much people are consuming. The growth in convenience products, premiumization, and the changing preferences of younger generations will lead to reduced animal protein consumption. Animal protein companies need to continuously adapt to these subtle but ongoing changes if they want to remain successful. Three areas warrant specific attention in our view. First, animal protein companies can benefit from diversifying their markets, sales channels, and products. Second, they also need to have strategies in place to meet sustainability and animal welfare standards in their supply chains. And third, they need to make their claims around sustainability and animal welfare visible to consumers to help realize a return on investments.

Australian Farming

    Wheat and barley: Little has changed for global wheat and feed grains in recent months. The plentiful North American corn and wheat harvest is on track, and challenges for EU and Black Sea wheat do not appear strong enough to alter the outlook for sufficient ending stocks.Canola: Climatic problems across Europe and the Black Sea are tightening canola and sunflower supplies and might support canola import demand from the EU. Trade tensions between Canada and China could lead Canada searching for alternative options to market its GM canola crop.Dairy: There were signs of life in dairy commodity markets in August. However, the global fundamentals remain evenly balanced, and more upside is required to push up farmgate prices. The key focus is on New Zealand milk supply as the season ramps up and the ongoing rebalancing of milk supply in China.Beef: Cattle prices continue to slowly track upward with processor cow prices the first category to break above the five-year average. High female slaughter numbers are creating questions about whether the herd is in liquidation. We don’t think this is the case. Instead, we believe the slaughter numbers reflect higher numbers of cattle in the system.Sheepmeat: A dramatic drop in lamb slaughter volumes through August helped rebalance the supply-demand equation. We believe this will support prices at current levels. The question remains whether the total lamb drop will be lower this season or just delayed.Cotton: Global cotton prices found support in August, with the ICE #2 Cotton contract rising modestly. The primary driver for recent price action is weather issues in Texas. However, global demand headwinds will likely limit major upside going forward.Wool: Wool prices declined in August as demand headwinds pushed prices lower. Australian export data disappointed amid a notable decline in Chinese shipments.Consumer foods: The latest ABS retail trade data for July showed a slowdown in total food expenditure. The consumer food market remains very dynamic with consumers increasingly on the hunt for value while tightening the belt on total food expenditure.Farm inputs: Month-on-month price movements were modest across fertilisers as uncertainty regarding global demand kept prices trading range-bound. On the supply side, China remains absent from the export market and natural gas prices remain volatile.Interest rates and FX: Unemployment ticked higher in August and the monthly inflation series suggested some moderation. Nevertheless, the RBA signaled a 2024 rate cut is not on the cards and the Aussie dollar rallied in response.Energy and freight: Oil prices continued to moderate in August and could slide further in September as demand shows signs of easing. Seasonal demand patterns are expected to place upward pressure on freight rates in the near-term before increased container supply provides longer term relief.

A dozen Republican U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration on Friday to address the use of Chinese-manufactured agriculture drones, saying their use on American farms poses national security risks. The House members, including Representatives Elise Stefanik, Ashley Hinson and John Moolenaar, who chairs a select committee on China, asked the Agriculture Department and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, in letters seen by Reuters, to detail the administration's efforts to address risks posed by aerosol-dispensing drones. The lawmakers asked for a briefing by Sept. 30, citing the large number of drones produced by Chinese drone manufacturer DJI as a security concern. DJI responded that it has no ties to the Chinese military, saying in an emailed statement "the unfounded accusations against our agricultural drone technology are putting U.S. farmers at risk by potentially depriving them of the tremendous benefits that DJI spray drones offer." 
 President Xi Jinping pledged on Thursday to step up China's support across debt-laden Africa with funding of nearly $51 billion over three years, backing for more infrastructure projects, and the creation of at least 1 million jobs. China was ready to step up cooperation with Africa in industry, agriculture, infrastructure, trade and investment, Xi told delegates from more than 50 African nations gathered in Beijing for the three-yearly Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit.   "China and Africa account for one-third of the world population. Without our modernisation, there will be no global modernisation," Xi said. China, the world's biggest bilateral lender, promised to carry out three times as many infrastructure projects across resource-rich Africa despite Xi's avowed new preference for "small and beautiful" schemes based around selling advanced and green technologies in which Chinese firms have invested heavily. 
The Chinese leader committed 360 billion yuan ($50.70 billion) in financial assistance over three years, but specified that 210 billion would be disbursed through credit lines and at least 70 billion in fresh investment by Chinese companies. Smaller amounts would be provided through military aid and other projects. At the 2021 China-Africa summit in Dakar, China promised at least $10 billion in investment and the same again in credit lines. This time, the financial assistance would be in yuan, in an apparent push to further internationalise the Chinese yuan.

Commodities Top Performers

Cocoa 5.65% 5,158.00 GBP
Tin 3.98% 31,494.00 USD
Orange Juice 1.95% 5.27 USD
Coal 1.63% 115.50 USD
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 1.06% 2.29 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,497.65
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/7/2024
Palladium
912.50
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/6/2024
Platinum
924.00
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/6/2024
Silver
27.93
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/6/2024
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2.29
1.06%
0.02
USD per MMBtu
9/6/2024
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
9/6/2024
Heating Oil
56.00
-2.30%
-1.32
USD per 100 Liter
9/6/2024
Coal
115.50
1.63%
1.85
per Ton
9/6/2024
RBOB Gasoline
1.90
-1.79%
-0.03
per Gallone
9/6/2024
Uranium
79.65
-0.06%
-0.05
per 250 Pfund U308
9/6/2024
Oil (Brent)
71.47
-1.91%
-1.39
USD per Barrel
9/6/2024
Oil (WTI)
68.16
-1.66%
-1.15
USD per Barrel
9/6/2024
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,340.35
-1.72%
-41.00
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Lead
1,952.25
-1.22%
-24.10
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Iron Ore
91.61
0.34%
0.31
per Dry Metric Ton
9/6/2024
Copper
9,012.65
0.38%
34.11
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Nickel
15,829.00
0.40%
63.00
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Zinc
2,714.15
1.00%
26.90
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Tin
31,494.00
3.98%
1,205.50
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.67
-3.46%
-0.02
USc per lb.
9/6/2024
Oats
3.42
0.51%
0.02
USc per Bushel
8/29/2024
Lumber
487.50
-2.21%
-11.00
per 1.000 board feet
9/6/2024
Coffee
2.40
-2.48%
-0.06
USc per lb.
9/6/2024
Cocoa
5,158.00
5.65%
276.00
GBP per Ton
9/5/2024
Live Cattle
1.75
-1.03%
-0.02
USD per lb.
9/6/2024
Lean Hog
0.80
-1.42%
-0.01
USc per lb.
9/6/2024
Corn
3.83
-1.79%
-0.07
USc per Bushel
9/6/2024
Feeder Cattle
2.34
-1.02%
-0.02
USc per lb.
9/6/2024
Milk
22.77
0.49%
0.11
USD per cwt.sh.
9/6/2024
Orange Juice
5.27
1.95%
0.10
USc per lb.
9/4/2024
Palm Oil
3,980.00
-1.02%
-41.00
Ringgit per Ton
9/6/2024
Rapeseed
464.25
-1.85%
-8.75
EUR per Ton
9/6/2024
Rice
15.50
0.26%
0.04
per cwt.
9/6/2024
Soybean Meal
318.40
-0.69%
-2.20
USD per Ton
9/6/2024
Soybeans
10.02
0.28%
0.03
USc per Bushel
9/6/2024
Soybean Oil
0.41
-3.71%
-0.02
USD per lb.
9/6/2024
Wheat
198.50
-2.70%
-5.50
USc per Ton
9/6/2024
Sugar
0.19
-1.92%
0.00
USc per lb.
9/6/2024