World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -04th November 2024

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -04th November 2024

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USA -This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.​Economy: The cutting cycle has started.Climate: Winter surprise.Logistics: North American supply chain recovers from weather and labor disruptions.Consumer: Declines in restaurant demand continue, food inflation ticks higher, and private label has room to grow.Cattle: Shifting precipitation patterns alter North America cattle supply trends; US beef demand remains strong.Corn: Inflation Reduction Act extends an opening to Brazilian ethanol imports.Dairy: Milk production marks 14th consecutive decline in August, but Class III milk price hits 27-month high.Farm Inputs: Strait of Hormuz: The nutrient highway.Feed: DDGS prices settling below the five-year average.Fruits: Apple prices shift from downward to upward trend for some varieties.Pork: Steady markets as supply and demand remain well-balanced.Poultry: Chicken prices remain ahead of year-ago on strong consumer trends.Soybeans: Soybean market under pressure from multiple factors.Sweeteners: Weather added concerns to the US sugar sector, but all is fine.Tree Nuts: Mostly bullish trends at the beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year.Vegetables: US potato production forecast adjusted downward for 2024.Wheat: Prices low for now, but watch for shifts.Cotton/Rice: Tropical storms slam southeast, but price support proves fleeting/Record ending stocks for major exporters.

In October, Brazilian soybean farmgate prices increased by 3% compared to the previous month. Local premiums and the devaluation of the real favored local soybean pricing.Farmgate corn prices in October were 9% higher than the previous month. In line with the behavior of local soybean prices, the devaluation of the real and higher local basis also supported higher corn prices.In September 2024, Brazilian soybean exports reached 6.1m metric tons, 24% lower than the previous month. However, year-to-date exports are 3% higher than the previous year, despite a decrease in production for the 2023/24 season.In September, corn exports totaled 6.4m metric tons, a 6% increase compared to the previous month. Year-to-date exports are down 28% from last year. A smaller Brazilian crop and draft restrictions in the Northern Arc ports reduced Brazilian competitiveness.After a considerable delay in rains, farmers are advancing with soybean planting. Weather forecasts show excellent rains in all soybean-producing regions.

Australian production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 47.05m tonnes, a marginal increase of 1.1% or 0.5m tonnes YOY. The positive start and good rainfall during the growing season in Queensland, northern New South Wales, and some areas in Western Australia largely counterbalanced shortfalls in Victoria and South Australia’s precipitation. The small uptick compared to 2023/24 will come mainly from wheat and, to a lesser extent, from pulses and oats. Canola and barley production may be lower year-on-year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frosts that struck many crops at a critical period. As expected, canola production is poised to be smaller year-on-year, not only due to a smaller cropping area but also to weather setbacks.

The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations. Domestic output reached 13.4 million barrels a day in August, eclipsing all previous monthly records. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge. That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program for a second time.

Avian influenza has been spreading faster in the European Union this season than a milder 2023, raising concerns of a repeat of previous crises that led to the deaths of tens of millions of poultry and renewing fears that it could expand to humans, reported Reuters. Highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has killed hundreds of millions birds around the globe in recent years. However, it has not been detected in humans or in cattle in the EU, unlike the US where the virus has spread to nearly 400 dairy herds in 14 states this year, and has been detected in 36 people since April. Four of them had been working at a commercial egg farm infected by the virus. Its spread to humans and other mammal species, including US dairy cattle and swine, is raising concerns that the virus could mutate into one easily transmissible between humans and spark a pandemic. Between the start of the migratory season on Aug. 1 and the end of last week, EU countries had reported a total of 62 outbreaks of bird flu on poultry farms, mostly in the east of the bloc, World Organisation for Animal Health data showed. That compares to seven bird flu outbreaks reported on EU farms by the same stage in 2023, but was still well below the 112 outbreaks reported by late October 2022.

Ukraine is hoping to get Beijing's approval to supply peas, poultry meat, animal feed and some other products to the Chinese market, Reuters reported, citing the Ukrainian state food safety authority on Thursday. Ukraine is a major producer of grain, vegetable oils and other agricultural goods which dominate the country's exports. Vadym Chaikovskyi, chief state phytosanitary inspector, said in a statement that the process had reached the stage of finalising domestic approval in Ukraine. "The texts have (also) been sent to the competent authority of China for consideration." "This is one of the markets (for peas) in the final stage of opening," he added. Ukraine already exports corn, soybeans, barley, vegetable oil and sunflower meal to China. In the 2023/24 July-June season, Ukraine exported 4.83 million metric tons of corn and 702,000 tons of barley to China, Ukrainian traders union UGA said.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -04th November 2024

It is the second straight month of poor sales volumes for the world’s largest wheat and corn importer.The U.S. Department of Agriculture has penciled in 12 million tonnes of Chinese wheat imports in 2024-25 and 19 million tonnes of corn. “Right now, they’re tracking way below those numbers,” said Neil Townsend, chief market analyst with GrainFox. China was Canada’s largest wheat market in 2023-24, purchasing 3.1 million tonnes of the crop, according to Canadian Grain Commission data. It was also the biggest buyer the previous year, importing 2.97 million tonnes. Sales to the Asian giant are down substantially through the first two months of the 2024-25 crop year with 155,700 tonnes on the books compared to 418,100 tonnes a year ago.

In a display confirming its commitment to support large farm and contracting enterprises boost productivity and minimise total cost of ownership, Case IH is using its presence at EIMA International 2024 (Bologna, Nov 6-10, stand B/5, hall 14) to launch a brand new combine, display for the first time in Italy the new Case IH Quadtrac 715 flagship tractor, and show technology developments including the new FieldOps™ app. There is news for smaller farms too, in the form of the updated Farmall C series tractors. 

According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion Panel, the prospects of La Niña weather have receded from 85% in its June 2024 release to the latest 60% chance issued in October 2024. La Niña is usually associated with above average rainfall for Southern Africa; however, its declining probability demands close monitoring and careful management of the situation on the ground. Although the weather forecast remains somewhat optimistic, La Niña is developing slower than expected. Resultantly, the outlook is pointing to a slower start of full swing planting operations. Despite this, farmers are still expected to have sufficient time to plant all of their intended crops. On 29 October 2024, the Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) released the 9 th summer crop production and intentions to plant estimates. From the previous month’s estimate, maize for the ongoing 2024/25 marketing year (MY) was revised to 12.72 million tons (12.8 million tons in the previous month’s estimate). For the just commenced 2024/25 production season (2025/26 MY), farmers intend to plant 2.64 million hectares of maize, up by 0.15% y/y. Soya bean planting is forecast at 1.15 million hectares, up by 0.23% y/y and sunflower seed planting is at 540 000 hectares, up by 2.1% y/y. The aggregate summer crop hectarage is forecast at 4.47 million hectares, up by 0.76% y/y.

Commodities November 03

Palm Oil 3.67% 4,976.00 MYR
Tin 2.73% 32,025.00 USD
Soybean Oil 2.34% 0.46 USD
Lead 2.31% 2,021.50 USD
Lumber 2.01% 559.00 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,735.22
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
11/2/2024
Palladium
1,101.50
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
11/2/2024
Platinum
994.00
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
11/2/2024
Silver
32.42
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
11/2/2024
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2.65
-1.85%
-0.05
USD per MMBtu
11/1/2024
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
11/1/2024
Heating Oil
58.91
0.45%
0.26
USD per 100 Liter
11/1/2024
Coal
118.70
0.38%
0.45
per Ton
11/1/2024
RBOB Gasoline
1.96
-1.96%
-0.04
per Gallone
11/1/2024
Uranium
78.35
-1.66%
-1.30
per 250 Pfund U308
11/1/2024
Oil (Brent)
72.94
-0.31%
-0.23
USD per Barrel
11/1/2024
Oil (WTI)
69.32
-1.72%
-1.21
USD per Barrel
11/1/2024
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,600.17
-0.67%
-17.58
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Lead
2,021.50
2.31%
45.65
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Iron Ore
102.49
-1.55%
-1.59
per Dry Metric Ton
11/1/2024
Copper
9,444.66
0.76%
71.28
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Nickel
15,840.00
2.00%
311.00
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Zinc
3,062.20
-1.28%
-39.80
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Tin
32,025.00
2.73%
851.00
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.70
0.88%
0.01
USc per lb.
11/1/2024
Oats
3.98
0.19%
0.01
USc per Bushel
11/1/2024
Lumber
559.00
2.01%
11.00
per 1.000 board feet
11/1/2024
Coffee
2.43
-1.40%
-0.03
USc per lb.
11/1/2024
Cocoa
5,834.00
-0.87%
-51.00
GBP per Ton
10/31/2024
Live Cattle
1.86
-3.63%
-0.07
USD per lb.
11/1/2024
Lean Hog
0.84
0.21%
0.00
USc per lb.
11/1/2024
Corn
4.15
0.85%
0.04
USc per Bushel
11/1/2024
Feeder Cattle
2.47
-1.97%
-0.05
USc per lb.
11/1/2024
Milk
20.26
0.30%
0.06
USD per cwt.sh.
11/1/2024
Orange Juice
5.42
0.56%
0.03
USc per lb.
11/1/2024
Palm Oil
4,976.00
3.67%
176.00
Ringgit per Ton
11/1/2024
Rapeseed
515.75
0.34%
1.75
EUR per Ton
11/1/2024
Rice
14.85
1.02%
0.15
per cwt.
11/1/2024
Soybean Meal
295.70
-1.27%
-3.80
USD per Ton
11/1/2024
Soybeans
9.84
-0.03%
0.00
USc per Bushel
11/1/2024
Soybean Oil
0.46
2.34%
0.01
USD per lb.
11/1/2024
Wheat
216.75
-0.23%
-0.50
USc per Ton
11/1/2024
Sugar
0.22
-3.25%
-0.01
USc per lb.
11/1/2024