Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture. The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 296 million people. Some examples include:

In Honduras, the Rural Competitiveness Project series (COMRURAL II and III) aims to generate entrepreneurship and employment opportunities while promoting a climate-conscious, nutrition-smart strategy in agri-food value chains. To date, the program is benefiting around 6,287 rural small-scale producers (of which 33% are women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous) of coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other commodities through enhanced market connections and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and has created 6,678 new jobs.
In Honduras, the Corredor Seco Food Security Project (PROSASUR) strives to enhance food security for impoverished and vulnerable rural households in the country’s Dry Corridor. This project has supported 12,202 extremely vulnerable families through nutrition-smart agricultural subprojects, food security plans, community nutrition plans, and nutrition and hygiene education. Within the beneficiary population, 70% of children under the age of five and their mothers now have a dietary diversity score of at least 4 (i.e., consume at least four food groups).
The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. Now in phase three, the program will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.
A $95 million credit from IDA for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) to increase commercialization of select agriculture value chain products and to provide immediate and effective response to an eligible crisis or emergency.
The $200 million IDA grant for Madagascar to strengthen decentralized service delivery, upgrade water supply, restore and protect landscapes, and strengthen the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-prone ‘Grand Sud’.
A $60 million credit for the Integrated Community Development Project that works with refugees and host communities in four northern provinces of Burundi to improve food and nutrition security, build socio-economic infrastructure, and support micro-enterprise development through a participatory approach.
The $175 million Sahel Irrigation Initiative Regional Support Project is helping build resilience and boost productivity of agricultural and pastoral activities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. More than 130,000 farmers and members of pastoral communities are benefiting from small and medium-sized irrigation initiatives. The project is building a portfolio of bankable irrigation investment projects of around 68,000 ha, particularly in medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.
Through the $50 million Emergency Food Security Response project, 329,000 smallholder farmers in Central Africa Republic have received seeds, farming tools and training in agricultural and post-harvest techniques to boost crop production and become more resilient to climate and conflict risks.
The $15 million Guinea Bissau Emergency Food Security Project is helping increase agriculture production and  access to food to vulnerable families. Over 72,000 farmers have received drought-resistant and high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, agricultural equipment; and livestock vaccines for the country-wide vaccination program. In addition, 8,000 vulnerable households have received cash transfer to purchase food and tackle food insecurity.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -25th November 2024

Oil prices could struggle in the coming years, Goldman Sachs says. The firm's commodities analysts say Brent crude prices could drop to the low $60s per barrel by the end of 2026 if President-elect Donald Trump implements his tariff proposals, or if OPEC+ increases output through next year,. That forecast marks a 20% drop from current prices, and around a 25% drop from this year's average price of around $80 per barrel. Prices have already seen downward pressure this year amid increasing supply and small demand growth. The medium-term price risks "skew to the downside because of high spare capacity and because broad tariffs could hurt demand," the analysts said in a Thursday note. The analyst's call comes amid Trump's proposals for tariffs of 10%-20% on all countries and a 60% tariff on goods from China.

The price of gold could hit $3,000 an ounce next year as central bankers continue to scoop up the precious metal, Samantha Dart, the co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said.The price of gold traded around $2,698 an ounce early Friday, with Dart's forecast implying 11% upside. That increase will be fueled primarily by central bank buying, she said, with central banks around the world already having scaled their purchases of gold five-fold compared to their pre-2022 average.

EU agri-food exports reached €18.6 billion in August 2024, down 10% from July but 1% higher than August 2023. Cumulative exports from January to August rose to €155.8 billion, a +2% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The United Kingdom remained the EU’s top agri-food export destination from January to August 2024, with exports valued at €35.1 billion (+3%), followed by the United States at €19.6 billion (+10%), driven by higher prices and volumes of key products like olives and olive oil. In contrast, exports to China and Russia declined significantly. For China, this is explained in particular by reductions in exports of pigmeat, cereals, and dairy products.  Exports of olives and olive oil saw the largest increase, rising by €1.8 billion (+58%) thanks to high prices. In contrast, cereal exports fell by €1.3 billion (-13%) in value due to lower prices but volumes exported increased by +6%. The increase in exported volumes of sugar and isoglucose reached +184%, making the EU a net exporter again.

EU agri-food imports reached €13.4 billion in August 2024, down 8% from July 2024 but +23% higher than August 2023. Cumulative imports from January to August added up to €111 billion, a +3% increase compared to the same period in 2023.Brazil remained the top source of EU imports between January and August, despite a 5% decline due to lower oilseeds prices and cereals volumes. Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Tunisia showed significant increases driven by higher prices for cocoa and olive oil, while imports from Australia had the largest reduction (-38%) due to reduced rapeseed volumes and prices.EU imports of coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices increased by €4.6 billion (+33%) compared to 2023 due to rising cocoa prices. Imports of olives and olive oil grew by €654 million (+93%) since January driven by both higher volumes and prices. In contrast, imports of oilseeds and protein crops fell by €1.9 billion (-13%) compared to 2023 due to lower prices, and cereals imports dropped by €1.6 billion (-20%) mainly because of reduced prices.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa’s agricultural sector is largely export orientated, hence geopolitical tensions and restrictive trade policies constitute a great risk. Since 2018, when the US imposed import tariffs on Chinese products and China retaliated with import tariffs on agricultural products, escalations of trade tensions have been prominent. The recent geopolitical escalations in the Middle East have created a more geopolitically fragmented world, with various countries looking inward as far as trade policies are concerned and some opting to join or form geopolitical alliances and trade blocs. The return of the Trump administration brings much uncertainty and potential ruction regarding import tariffs with a range of countries, especially China. If US trade policy is not managed well, it might escalate global trade fragmentation over the next few years. As a result, South African needs to proactively manage and safeguard its global trade interests over the long-term. The CEC released the final estimates for South Africa’s 2023/24 summer crop production year at 15.4 million tons, up by 0.1% from the previous estimate but down by 23% year-on-year (y/y) due to the El Niño drought. During his recent annual address to the National Council of Provinces, President Cyril Ramaphosa supported the proposal to expand the basket of goods to be exempted from VAT, this stance is aimed at addressing the lingering economic challenges faced by many consumers.

This week, the rand averaged R18.12/US$, weakening by 0.2% w/w but strengthening by 3.2% y/y. The local currency was rattled by President Trump’s tariff threats that spooked markets. • This week, the Brent crude oil price averaged US$73.07/barrel, down by 0.02% w/w and by 8.3% y/y. A large surprise build up in the US gasoline stocks pressured prices, but this was partially offset by the potential easing of tensions in the Middle East. • The Brent crude oil price has eased slightly this month. This is, however, likely to be overridden by rand weakness from a lower global growth outlook, possibly higher US import tariffs, and higher medium-term US interest rates. For the remainder of this month, the oil price is expected to remain somewhat stable and the exchange rate could weaken. • As a result, the following local fuel price increases are forecast for 04 December 2024: petrol (95 unleaded) by 47c/l; diesel 500 ppm and 50ppm by 60c/l and 61c/l, respectively. by many consumers.

This week, the yellow maize price averaged R4 819/ton, up by 3.9% w/w and by 10.3% y/y. The white maize price averaged R6 082/ton, up by 1.3% w/w and by 33.5% y/y. • Domestic maize prices were supported by the weaker rand, tight domestic availability, and good buying demand. • Chicago maize prices wavered on Wednesday this week as investors adjusted positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. • In week-30 of the domestic 2024/25 MY, 10.462 million tons of white and yellow maize had cumulatively been delivered. In the same week, cumulative exports of white and yellow maize reached a combined 1.313 million tons. • The top three export destinations of white maize were Zimbabwe (470 487 tons), Namibia (127 778 tons), and Mozambique (58 938 tons). The top three destinations of yellow maize were Zimbabwe (255 978 tons), Botswana (61 945 tons), and Eswatini (51 518 tons).

This week, the soya bean price averaged R9 046/ton, up by 2.6% w/w but down by 6.1% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R10 629/ton, up by 2.4% w/w and by 8.2% y/y. • The domestic oilseed prices were supported by rand weakness and international buying demand. • Chicago soya bean contracts were up on pre-holiday positioning coupled with a drop in the US dollar, resulting in US exports being more competitive. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-39 of the 2024/25 MY stood at 1.766 million tons of soya bean and 629 204 tons of sunflower seed.

This week, the wheat price averaged R5 950/ton, up by 1.7% w/w but down by 5.6% y/y. • The domestic wheat prices got support from the weaker rand. • In week-08 of the new 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 834 525 tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 294 423 tons, with the 97 395 tons coming from Russia, 65 717 tons coming from Lithuania, and 54 105 tons coming from Canada.

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