World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 20 January 2025

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 20 January 2025

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What prospects does 2025 hold for Brazilian agribusiness? This report outlines the macroeconomic backdrop for 2025 and provides an outlook for each of Brazil’s major agribusiness sectors: soybeans, corn, cotton, beef, coffee, sugar and ethanol, orange juice, dairy, farm inputs, cellulose, poultry, and pork. Several common themes emerge for 2025, including the lasting impact of 2024’s very dry weather and potential shifts in prices, margins, and competitiveness in the wake of 2024’s currency devaluation. Other key subjects include tariffs and other measures that may impact trade as well as the effects of projected inflation, rising interest rates, and slower economic growth on local consumption. Despite the challenges, we expect new production and export records to be set. Excellent crop conditions for soybeans should see a new production record of 167m metric tons achieved in 2025, while both poultry and pork exports are expected to reach new highs in 2025. And favorable climatic conditions could see Brazil achieve the No. 1 spot in cotton exports for a second successive year.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2024-25 global corn production, largely reflecting a downward revision for the U.S. crop. IGC forecasts global corn production at 1.219 billion tons, down 6 MMT from its prior forecast and 12 MMT below year-ago. IGC kept its 2024-25 world wheat crop estimate at 796 MMT, with a downward revision for Russia offset by an upward adjustment to the Australian crop. For 2025-26, IGC initially projects production will rise to a record 805 MMT. IGC raised its 2024-25 global soybean production forecast 1 MMT to 420 MMT, now up 24 MMT from last year. 

New Zealand, Australian and U.S. dairy groups have accused Canada of underpricing its milk products and dumping them on global markets. These groups claim Canada’s milk pricing mechanisms incentivize surplus disposal at artificially low prices, undermining international markets. New Zealand has initiated trade negotiations with Canada under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, while all three nations urge their governments to hold Canada accountable for its trade practices under World Trade Organization and regional agreements. Global milk production is expected to rise in 2025, intensifying competition and trade disputes, with Canadian policies drawing sharp criticism from rivals who advocate for coordinated international action.

A recent study for the Iowa Pork Producers Association highlights the pivotal role of Iowa’s pork industry in the state’s economy. As the nation’s top pork producer, Iowa contributes 33% of the U.S. hog inventory and supports over 120,000 jobs. In 2024 alone, the pork sector added $15.4 billion in economic value to Iowa, generating $8 billion in household income and $40.5 billion in total sales. The study was conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS) in 2024. Beyond economic benefits, Iowa’s pork industry emphasizes sustainability. Hog manure enriches soil, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, while the use of local feedstuffs bolsters efficiency. Iowa pig farms exemplify a self-sustaining agricultural model that supports local communities and strengthens the U.S. food supply chain.

 Donald Trump came to Washington eight years ago vowing to rewrite U.S. trade relationships, shrink a massive goods trade deficit and rebuild America's industrial base with new tariffs.
The president-elect is about to embark on an even more aggressive effort in his second term, pledging to impose 10% duties on all U.S. imports and 60% on goods from China. Just how that will play out is unclear, but data from his first run at upending the trade landscape show it did shift U.S. imports away from China to other countries, especially Mexico and Vietnam. Still, the U.S. trade deficit continued to grow, topping $1 trillion over the last four years, and factory employment has flatlined amid an overall jobs boom since the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump's tariffs of 25% on $370 billion of Chinese imports helped reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China from $418 billion in 2018 to $279 billion in 2023. But as companies shifted production elsewhere, new winners emerged: Mexico and Vietnam. The growth of their U.S. trade surpluses more than made up for China's decline.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -13 January 2025

Germany has not identified any new cases of FMD, Agriculture Minister Cem Oezdemir announced, following the confirmation of the first case since 1988 in a herd of water buffalo near Berlin. Efforts are focused on controlling the outbreak, while Germany collaborates with European Union (EU) partners to maintain export markets for unaffected regions. Non-EU countries such as the U.S., Mexico, South Korea, and the UK have suspended imports of German livestock and related products as the investigation into the outbreak's origin continues.

— USDA implements import restrictions on German Animal Products in response to FMD outbreak. USDA took swift action in response to Germany's recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak, implementing significant import restrictions on livestock and animal products from the country.

  • Livestock ban: USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has prohibited the import of German cattle, sheep, swine, and goats.
  • Horse import procedures: Additional measures for horses, including pre- and post-import decontamination, have been put in place.
  • Processed products: Processed pork and ruminant products arriving via cargo now require either an APHIS Veterinary Services import permit or certification of treatment meeting APHIS standards.
  • Unprocessed products: Imports of unprocessed animal products from Germany are now banned, with limited exceptions.

The restrictions come in the wake of Germany's first FMD case in nearly 40 years, detected in a water buffalo herd near Berlin. This outbreak has significant implications for Germany's agricultural sector and international trade.

These measures are likely to disrupt Germany's meat and dairy exports, particularly those destined for markets outside the European Union. The loss of Germany's FMD-free status under World Organization for Animal Health guidelines has already led to export challenges, with countries like South Korea imposing immediate bans on German pork imports.

USDA's actions align with standard protocols for protecting domestic livestock from potential FMD introduction, highlighting the serious economic and agricultural risks associated with the disease.

— Germany faces export disruptions due to foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Germany’s recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak has disrupted its exports. South Korea, its second-largest non-EU market after the UK, has suspended German pork imports, including 360 metric tons awaiting quarantine inspection. This decision follows Korea's prior resumption of German pork imports under a regionalization agreement addressing African Swine Fever, but presently Korea does not recognize EU regionalization for FMD. Last year Korea imported about 40,000 mt of pork from Germany, representing 7% of the imported pork market. Frozen pork belly made up the vast majority of these imports. Korea has recognized Brazil’s state of Santa Catarina as FMD-free without vaccination, allowing pork imports from that state. But it took many years to reach that agreement, and access is limited to a single Brazilian state.

According to the USMEF, globally, Germany exported 1.277 million metric tons of pork in 2024 (up 18% year-over-year), with 83% to the EU, 6.5% to the UK, and 3.6% to Korea. FMD clauses in export certificates have effectively halted German pork exports to third countries, including key markets like the UK, which imported 79,400 metric tons through October.

Germany remains the EU’s second-largest pork producer, with production reaching 3.553 million metric tons (up 2% YoY). While the EU allows regionalized movement within its borders, third-country export recovery hinges on regaining FMD-free status.

The U.S. imports minimal volumes of pork from Germany, totaling 238 mt through November and consisting only of prepared pork products.

Upshot: Efforts are underway to mitigate the outbreak's effects, including targeted vaccine development to control the pathogen's spread. German authorities are working to support the agricultural sector and prevent further disruptions. This underscores the need for regionalization agreements that would negate the ability to ban from a whole country.

Farmingportal and Agri News Net is connected to 35 Media companies around the world. 

 

Commodities January  19

Oats 3.50% 3.62 USD
Orange Juice 3.14% 4.81 USD
Corn 2.16% 4.85 USD
Zinc 2.09% 2,882.85 USD
Aluminium 1.79% 2,684.30 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,701.93
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
1/18/2025
Palladium
950.00
-0.11%
-1.00
USD per Troy Ounce
1/17/2025
Platinum
940.75
0.05%
0.50
USD per Troy Ounce
1/17/2025
Silver
30.35
-1.56%
-0.48
USD per Troy Ounce
1/17/2025
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
3.92
-8.53%
-0.37
USD per MMBtu
1/17/2025
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
1/17/2025
Heating Oil
69.48
0.38%
0.26
USD per 100 Liter
1/17/2025
Coal
109.00
0.93%
1.00
per Ton
1/17/2025
RBOB Gasoline
2.11
-0.34%
-0.01
per Gallone
1/17/2025
Uranium
73.95
0.14%
0.10
per 250 Pfund U308
1/17/2025
Oil (Brent)
80.73
-0.77%
-0.63
USD per Barrel
1/17/2025
Oil (WTI)
77.94
-1.04%
-0.82
USD per Barrel
1/17/2025
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,684.30
1.79%
47.30
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Lead
1,935.55
0.35%
6.70
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Iron Ore
101.21
0.71%
0.72
per Dry Metric Ton
1/17/2025
Copper
9,081.72
-0.45%
-41.37
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Nickel
15,838.50
1.13%
177.00
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Zinc
2,882.85
2.09%
59.10
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Tin
29,397.50
-0.43%
-127.50
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.68
1.23%
0.01
USc per lb.
1/17/2025
Oats
3.62
3.50%
0.12
USc per Bushel
1/17/2025
Lumber
594.50
-1.08%
-6.50
per 1.000 board feet
1/17/2025
Coffee
3.27
0.11%
0.00
USc per lb.
1/17/2025
Cocoa
8,559.00
-2.15%
-188.00
GBP per Ton
1/16/2025
Live Cattle
1.97
0.13%
0.00
USD per lb.
1/17/2025
Lean Hog
0.81
-1.40%
-0.01
USc per lb.
1/17/2025
Corn
4.85
2.16%
0.10
USc per Bushel
1/17/2025
Feeder Cattle
2.74
0.17%
0.00
USc per lb.
1/17/2025
Milk
20.30
0.10%
0.02
USD per cwt.sh.
1/17/2025
Orange Juice
4.81
3.14%
0.15
USc per lb.
1/17/2025
Palm Oil
4,441.00
-0.67%
-30.00
Ringgit per Ton
1/17/2025
Rapeseed
529.50
0.76%
4.00
EUR per Ton
1/17/2025
Rice
14.82
1.40%
0.21
per cwt.
1/17/2025
Soybean Meal
297.40
0.81%
2.40
USD per Ton
1/17/2025
Soybeans
10.36
1.52%
0.16
USc per Bushel
1/17/2025
Soybean Oil
0.46
1.62%
0.01
USD per lb.
1/17/2025
Wheat
227.00
0.44%
1.00
USc per Ton
1/17/2025
Sugar
0.18
-1.03%
0.00
USc per lb.
1/17/2025