World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 24th February 2025

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So far in February, Brazilian soybean farmgate prices have decreased by 3% compared to the previous month. A record Brazilian crop estimated at 170m mt has weighed on prices
Corn farmgate prices in January were 3% higher than the previous month. Year-to-date prices are 34% above prior-year levels. A delayed safrinha planting is supporting local prices.
In January, Brazilian soybean exports only reached 1.0m metric tons, 46% lower than the previous month. A delay in the soybean harvest limited harvested volumes in early 2025.
January corn exports totaled 3.6m metric tons, a 16% drop compared to the previous month.
More favorable weather is enabling the soybean harvest and safrinha planting to advance. This scenario is likely to persist during the next 15 days, according to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Provides a ten-year outlook for the global rice market, forecasting rising rice prices due to increasing consumption, moderating production growth, and declining ending stocks. A significant factor influencing this trend is Vietnam’s 2023 strategy to halve its rice exports by 2030, a move that, given Vietnam’s status as a major exporter, could tighten global supply and exacerbate price increases. The analysis explores how boosting production in the top nine rice-exporting countries, including Vietnam, could counteract these price pressures.
The Vietnam-specific report examines the country’s rice supply and demand dynamics, predicting that a successful export reduction would challenge global supply chains and impact trade partners. Globally, the combination of steady demand and slower supply growth is expected to keep rice prices elevated beyond pre-2023 levels. To mitigate this, the series suggests enhancing production in key exporting nations.
Focusing on Southeast Asia, where rice production has stagnated, the report highlights sustainable strategies to close yield gaps and increase output. These efforts could stabilize global stocks and prices while offering opportunities for grain and oilseed industry players. Overall, the series underscores the interplay between regional policies, production trends, and sustainable practices in shaping the future of rice markets.

In this market outlook for North American agribusiness: Tariffs are top of mind for agribusiness, as is extreme winter weather. Inflation is heating back up, with foodservice largely remaining under pressure. US cattle market prices reach record highs, with pork and chicken prices also up. Meanwhile, avian influenza continued to pull milk production lower in recent months. In grains and oilseeds: The realities of stagnating biofuel policies are setting in for US soybeans, and increased US corn planting is expected on the back of the recent price rally.

 
This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.​

Economy: Tariffs.Climate: Winter weather woes.Logistics: Increased volatility expected.Consumer: Shifts toward new and healthier menu options amid changing consumer spending patterns.Cattle: Market prices start 2025 at record highs with declining US cattle supplies and trade concerns in focus.Corn: Will king corn get ahead of itself?Dairy: Avian influenza cases, primarily in California, pulled milk production lower again in November
and December.Farm inputs: Tariffs would pose a nutrient headache.Feed: Higher energy costs for feed rations, but lower crude protein prices are offsetting the increase in corn.Fruits: Favorable outlook for California avocados.Pork: Strong start to the year on tighter supply and improved pork demand.Poultry: Chicken prices remain steady as foodservice demand strengthens.Soybeans: The realities of stagnating biofuel policies are setting in.Sweeteners: US raw sugar prices #16 have moderated in recent months.Tree nuts: Almond and walnut prices stabilizing at multiyear highs.Vegetables: Increased potato trade.Wheat: Weather remains the unknown factor for winter wheat production.Cotton/Rice: Market for old cotton crop most bearish in years, but glimmer of hope for 2025; Increasing rice supply.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 17th February 2025

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release approximately $20 million in funding for previously approved contracts that had been frozen by the Trump administration's push to overhaul the federal government, Reuters reported, citing the agency late on Thursday.

The sum represents a tiny sliver of program funding the USDA suspended after the White House's broad freeze of federal loans and grants last month. Although the administration rescinded the memo ordering the freeze and it has been blocked in court, a US judge has said the government was still withholding funds.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the released funds will go to honor contracts that were already made directly with farmers, according to a statement on the USDA's website.

The USDA is releasing $20 million in contracts for the Environmental Quality Incentive Program, the Conservation Stewardship Program and the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, it said.

Some of the money the USDA has frozen is tied to environmental conservation programs funded by former President Joe Biden's signature climate law, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which included about $19.5 billion for farm programs over 10 years.

In the statement, Rollins said the agency is still reviewing IRA funding that had been distributed during the Biden administration.

The agency's review of IRA-backed grants and contracts is part of its sweeping review of more than 400 USDA programs.

The Trump administration has said the funding for programs helping farmers would not be affected in the government overhaul.

But the impact has been immediate and wide-ranging, holding up cash assistance for ranchers to fixcattle watering systems and to help corn growers plant cover crops to curb wind erosion.

Palm oil futures have surged since mid-2024, driven by tight supplies and robust demand, reaching a peak of $1,250 per tonne by year-end. Despite competition from cheaper soybean oil, palm oil’s price has climbed 31% since late August, supported by limited alternatives and increased biodiesel use, particularly in Indonesia. The Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) predicts prices will hold between $1,000 and $1,250 per tonne in Q1 2025, buoyed by Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate (up from 35%), low stocks, and seasonal production dips. However, prices may ease in the second half of 2025 due to higher seasonal yields and harvests of rival crops like rapeseed and sunflower seed.
Production challenges persist, with Indonesia’s output dropping to 48 million tonnes in 2024 from 50.07 million the prior year, while Malaysia’s rose slightly to 19.34 million tonnes. CPOPC forecasts modest global growth in 2025, mainly from Indonesia, though increased domestic biodiesel demand will likely absorb this uptick. Demand remains strong, fueled by Indonesia’s biofuel policies, restocking needs in China and India, and tight supplies of competing oils like canola and sunflower.
This palm oil rally has indirectly bolstered canola prices, though analyst Mike Jubinville notes canola’s market is more driven by Canada’s tight supply and strong export and domestic demand. Potential U.S. tariffs and biofuel market uncertainties pose risks, but rising EU demand (e.g., 304,147 tonnes imported in December vs. 104,890 tonnes to China) offers a buffer. Meanwhile, soybean oil undercuts palm oil globally, aided by Argentina’s discounts and Indonesia’s export taxes.
Biofuel production, where palm oil constitutes a third of feedstocks, grew 8.4% to 64.14 million tonnes in 2024, with a projected 3.5% rise in palm oil use in 2025, driven by sustainable aviation fuel. Yet, CPOPC warns that stagnating yields in Indonesia and Malaysia—hampered by labor, supply chain issues, and reluctance to replant—threaten long-term competitiveness unless productivity improves.

 

 

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