World Farming Agriculture Commodity news - Weekly Updated - Exclusive and very popular - Delivering a Media service 365 days of the year.
Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
China is urging top hog farmers to scale back breeding herds by about 2%, the latest push to reduce oversupply in the country’s food sector, which has sparked concerns over deflation. Farmers’ representatives are expected to gather next week to discuss effective ways to shrink sow herds by 1 million, along with other measures to rein in pork production, China’s state-backed official husbandry association said in a notice, as reported by Bloomberg. China has organized meetings to discuss reining in pork production recently, signaling Beijing’s commitment to support prices of the country’s most consumed meat. China is the world’s top pork producer and consumer. However, consumption of pork in China has been tepid due to a slowing economy that has strained consumers’ purchasing power. China’s pork prices have dropped nearly 20% in the past year, said the report.
Kenny Burdine of the University of Kentucky warns that low levels of heifer retention suggest beef cow slaughter will be the main determinant of U.S. cattle inventory trends for the remainder of 2025. In a detailed market note, Burdine says “heifers, as a percentage of on-feed inventory, were estimated at 38.1% in the July Cattle-on-Feed report. This is not a number that suggests widespread retention.” The mid-year USDA report pegged the number of heifers held for beef cow replacement at 3.7 million head — 100,000 fewer than a year ago.Burdine noted that while intentions can shift, “cow slaughter is much more definitive. Cows that have been slaughtered are gone and all that can change is the pace of beef cow slaughter going forward.” Through mid-year, beef cow slaughter was down more than 17% year-over-year. If that trend holds, he projects nearly 500,000 fewer beef cows could be slaughtered in 2025 compared to 2024.He framed the retention figure in broader historical context: “As a percentage of estimated July 1 beef cow inventory, heifers held for beef cow replacement came in at 12.9%... the smallest percentage in the mid-year dataset, which goes back to 1973.”Although Burdine expects a modest inventory increase heading into 2026, he emphasized that “how significant that increase is, will be determined by the pace of beef cow slaughter for the balance of 2025.”Bottom Line: With strong cull cow prices and the bulk of calving and weaning yet to play out this year, Burdine concluded, “the rest of this year will be interesting to watch for beef cow harvest patterns.”
Roughly 30,000 tonnes of Brazilian beef were caught in transit or awaiting export to the US when President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, effective Aug. 1. While some shipments continued toward US ports in hopes of arriving before the deadline, others were rerouted to countries like Mexico, according to Valor. Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec), warned the sector could lose up to $1 billion in trade, with roughly 200,000 tonnes originally projected for US export in the second half of 2025. From January through June, Brazil shipped 181,500 tonnes to the U.S., generating $1.04 billion in revenue. The new 50% tariff would bring total duties on Brazilian beef to 76.4%, effectively closing the U.S. market for Brazilian exporters. Major packers like JBS, Minerva, and Astra scrambled to either reroute cargo or risk delivery ahead of the tariff. Minerva diverted some shipments to Mexico, while Astra returned product to its plant or risked transit on a narrow timeline. Despite rerouting efforts, Perosa noted no other market can fully absorb the volume once destined for the U.S. He also argued that Brazil remains unmatched in both price and supply scale, particularly for the U.S. processing industry. With U.S. cattle herds at historic lows, the tariff could tighten domestic beef supply even further.
After avian flu devastated poultry flocks and spiked egg prices, another biological threat is now bearing down on American agriculture: the New World screwworm. The parasitic fly, eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s, is creeping toward the Texas-Mexico border — and ranchers fear the country is not prepared, according to a New York Times article (link).
“If we wait, we lose,” warned Stephen Diebel, vice president of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, during a state legislative hearing. He and others are urging immediate action to prevent an outbreak that could decimate cattle herds already weakened by drought and high feed prices.
The screwworm, or Cochliomyia hominivorax, lays hundreds of eggs in open wounds. Larvae hatch and consume the flesh of live animals, often killing cattle within two weeks. As Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller put it: “It’s like something out of a horror movie... quite a putrid sight.”
While a joint U.S./Panama sterilization program kept screwworm south of Central America for decades, rising temperatures, illegal livestock transport, and migration through the Darién Gap have pushed the pest to within 370 miles of Texas.
Economic risk is steep:
- U.S. cattle inventory is already at a 70-year low.
- Ground beef prices hit a record $5.98/lb in May.
- Brazil — a major global exporter — could offset shortages, but President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef (see related items in blue box and in this section).
The federal response includes:
- An $8.5 million USDA program to release sterile flies in Texas.
- A $21 million investment to upgrade a Mexican facility for mass fly production.
- Legislation proposed by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Te.) for a $300 million domestic sterile fly factory, currently stalled as Congress is out for summer recess.
But experts warn this is far short of what’s needed. “We are desperately short on sterile fly production,” Diebel said, noting that past eradication efforts released up to 600 million sterile flies weekly — far more than the current output goal.
Texas lawmakers are weighing state-level solutions, mirroring their earlier approach to border security. “With New World screwworm, this state can do the same thing,” said Charles Maley of the South Texans’ Property Rights Association.
With the screwworm moving quickly north, Commissioner Miller estimates it could reach Texas within four months — and the economic effects are already being felt. U.S. cattle imports from Mexico, which supply roughly 3% of the market, have been halted multiple times since November due to surveillance failures and fresh outbreaks in Veracruz and Oaxaca.
Bottom Line: As livestock producers brace for another biosecurity challenge, one rancher, Shelbie Pippenger, summed up the risk for the NYT: “For small herds, it could wipe us out.”
The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent. The information contained in this website is for general information purposes only. The information is provided by CRA and while we endeavour to keep the information up to date and correct, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
Commodities Top Performers
