South Africans are set to pay more for beef and pork as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) disrupts the meat value chain and fast food restaurants pass the price hikes on to consumers.
The surge in beef and pork prices is also likely to have a negative impact on inflation.
Val Nichas, CEO of Spur Corporation, one of South Africa’s largest fast food chains, said the spread of FMD, which President Cyril Ramaphosa earlier this month deemed a national crisis, had impacted its business, particularly its beef-reliant RocoMamas brand.
“Further disruptions with FMD [in South Africa] were followed by outbreaks in Zimbabwe, Botswana and Eswatini, where we also trade,” Nichas said on an investor call releasing the group’s interim results.
“We are pleased that with our strong supplier relationships, we acted promptly to secure increased volumes of alternative proteins such as chicken and pork.
“The FMD has certainly impacted our business, with brands having to pass on some big increases in prices to consumers, particularly with brands like RocoMamas, who rely on freshly prepared beef smash.”
Double digits
FMD, a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals (cattle, sheep, goats and pigs), has disrupted the beef livestock industry, creating supply shortages and driving meat prices up by double digits.
The consumer price index released two weeks ago showed rising meat prices continue to place pressure on consumer wallets.
The December inflation print showed the annual rate for meat accelerated further to 13.5% from December’s 12.6% — the highest print for the category since December 2017.
Three beef products recorded the highest annual rates of all 391 products in the consumer inflation index basket. Beef steak surged 31.2%, while beef mince spiked 28%, and beef stew went up 30.3%.
On Thursday, Eskort CEO Arnold Prinsloo warned consumers and retailers that they would now also have to contend with high pork prices on the back of African swine fever and FMD outbreaks tightening supply across the formal market.
Prinsloo, who presides over an organisation that accounts for about 10% of South Africa’s pork supply, said his warning comes on the back of a communique from the South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (Sappo), which has communicated disease outbreaks affecting commercial piggeries in the Free State, North West, KwaZulu-Natal and northeast of Pretoria.
“South Africa slaughters roughly 72,000 pigs a week across the formal and informal sectors,” Prinsloo said. “The formal market has lost approximately 7,000 pigs due to the combined impact of ASF and FMD outbreaks.
“While this represents a relatively small percentage of total supply, even a 2% shortage can drive price increases of around 10%. This is the reality of pork’s price elasticity.
“Until recently we were able to hold prices stable because the industry had surplus stock that served as a buffer. That buffer has now been depleted, and we’re seeing the same supply-and-demand dynamics that recently affected the beef industry.”
Prinsloo said pork prices have moved significantly in recent weeks, with wholesale prices rising from about R32 per kilogram to R40.
Until recently we were able to hold prices stable because the industry had surplus stock that served as a buffer. That buffer has now been depleted, and we’re seeing the same supply-and-demand dynamics that recently affected the beef industry.
Inside the institutional collapse that killed South Africa’s foot-and-mouth defence
— Arnold Prinsloo, Eskort CEO
“Further increases are expected as the effects of disease outbreaks work through the supply chain,” he said.
The cabinet statement on Thursday said the first batch of locally produced FMD vaccines was handed over two weeks ago.
“This milestone will contribute to urgent steps to curb the outbreak of the FMD currently ravaging over 14-million livestock in the country and causing untold devastation to the farming community,” the statement reads.
“Cabinet is confident that the rebuilding of local vaccine production capacity within the state-owned ARC and OBP will also contribute to the goal of reclaiming South Africa’s FMD-free status from the World Organisation for Animal Health.
“Cabinet extends its appreciation to the farming community, who have worked tirelessly to complement the efforts of the department of agriculture to curb the current outbreak of the FMD.”
Comments- NEWS TEAM
South Africans feel right now: walking into a supermarket, checking prices first (often before even looking at the product), hesitating, and still feeling squeezed because basics cost too much. Living expenses, especially food, eat up a big chunk of income for most households, while big retail chains and executives seem to do very well. Prices seem to rise almost daily, and official inflation numbers sometimes feel disconnected from what people experience at the till.
Official data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) shows consumer food price inflation (the year-on-year increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages) held steady at 4.4% in January 2026 (unchanged from December 2025 and the third month in a row at that level).
Headline CPI (overall inflation) eased slightly to 3.5% in January from 3.6% in December. This is relatively low compared to peaks in previous years (food inflation averaged around 6% historically), and experts like agricultural economists forecast it moderating further in 2026 due to good harvests (2024-25 summer grains were the second-largest on record, and 2025-26 looks solid with decent rain), lower global grain/oil prices, and ample fruit/veg supplies.
But here's why it might not feel like only 4.4%:Meat prices are a big driver—up 13.5% year-on-year in January (highest since 2017), pulled higher by foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks disrupting cattle farming, even if overall supplies aren't collapsing yet. Meat hits budgets hard because it's a staple for many.
Some staples (cereals down to 0.6%, rice in deflation at -11%) are cheaper, offsetting others, so the average hides pain in specific items.
Retailers face costs (logistics, electricity, spoilage, promotions to compete), but critics point to high gross margins (e.g., some chains around 24% in recent reports) and pricing power in a concentrated market (a few big players dominate). Promotions and competition keep some prices in check, but overall, margins haven't collapsed despite low inflation.
Inflation measures the rate of increase—not absolute levels or how much prices have risen cumulatively over years. Once prices go up (from past energy shocks, rand weakness, or disease impacts), they rarely drop back—they stabilize or rise slower. So your basket might cost more than before, even if the pace slows.
Stats SA uses a fixed basket of goods tracked nationwide—but it averages everything and doesn't capture everyone's exact shopping habits, regional differences, or how low-income households feel the pinch more (they spend a higher share on food, so even moderate inflation hurts). Some analysts note retailer margins or market structure could contribute to stickier high prices.
Forecasts suggest food inflation could ease more in 2026 if diseases are contained (vaccination rollouts are underway) and harvests stay strong. In the meantime, many people cope by shopping specials, buying generics, growing veggies if possible, or cutting non-essentials. It's tough, and your observation about shoppers prioritizing price reflects the pressure a lot of families face daily. Hang in there—hopefully relief comes as inflation trends down. If things feel off in your area, checking local reports or household affordability indexes (like from PMBEJD) can show more ground-level reality.
