South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2021, with the transport, storage and communications industry the largest contributor, increasing by 6.9% and contributing 0.5% to overall growth.
Conventionally, StatsSA evaluates sectors in the economy according to a seasonally adjusted change.
While comparable with the rest of the economy, it does not reflect conditions in agriculture well because of the seasonality of production and different timing of delivery of various commodities.
Year on year change in real (2015) agricultural GDP per quarter Source: Stats SA, 2021 At first glance it looks as though agriculture, forestry and fisheries only grew by 6.2% since the previous quarter, but a relative comparison between Quarter 2 of this year and that of 2020 removes the need for seasonal adjustments and provides an alternative, simpler picture of agricultural performance in the past quarter.
Using this method, the agricultural sector’s performance was exceptional in the second quarter of 2021, expanding by 15.9% in real terms compared to the second quarter in 2020. Although the detailed value-added number for agriculture is not published, the disaggregated Gross Value of Production (GPV = Price X Quantity Produced) per industry, as compiled by DALRRD,1 provides some indication of the main drivers behind the GDP performance.
The remarkable performance in the agricultural sector is supported by the impressive summer crop harvest, particularly of maize, in the second quarter of 2021
