Mexico, one of the world's leading producers of pecans, has witnessed a slight decline in its production for the agricultural year 2023/24. According to recent estimates, the country produced 141,850 metric tons of pecans, marking a 2% decrease from the previous year. This downturn is attributed to less-than-favorable weather conditions, including a warm and dry summer, which resulted in nuts with lower fill and smaller sizes.
Despite an expansion in the pecan cultivation area, the adverse climate has taken its toll on the overall yield.
Looking ahead, industry experts anticipate that the prices for pecans will maintain an upward trajectory. This price increase is expected due to supply constraints coupled with a forecasted rise in demand from China. As one of the largest importers of pecans, China's influence on the global market is significant. The increasing popularity of pecans as a healthy snack option in Chinese diets is likely to drive demand even higher in the coming years.
However, Mexican pecan producers are not without their challenges. The competition from emerging pecan markets, such as South Africa, is on the rise. South African producers are gaining ground in terms of both quality and quantity, making them formidable contenders in the international arena. Additionally, the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar has rendered Mexican pecans more expensive on the global market. This currency fluctuation could potentially affect Mexico's competitiveness and its share in international exports.
To provide a broader perspective on the industry's future, recent reports from sources such as the Agricultural Marketing Service suggest that the upcoming pecan season is slated to begin either in late September or early October of 2024. While specific details on production volumes or pricing are not yet available, these reports offer a glimpse into the planning and anticipation that precedes each harvest season.
Moreover, market analysis by Mordor Intelligence projects that the global pecan market is poised to reach a value of $3.18 billion by 2029. This projection is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.33% from 2024 to 2029. Such growth underscores the increasing global appetite for pecans and suggests that despite current production setbacks, there is potential for recovery and expansion in the sector.
In conclusion, while Mexico's pecan industry faces immediate challenges due to climatic conditions and international competition, the long-term outlook remains positive. With strategic planning and adaptation to market demands, Mexican producers could harness the growth potential of this resilient nut in the years to come.
In a new study published in the journal Allergy, researchers conducted a systematic review of studies on the prevalence of food allergy and food sensitization in Europe, in which they summarized the prevalence of tree nut allergy/sensitization to individual tree nuts.
Macadamia is currently the fastest growing tree crop in South Africa
The researchers searched for relevant papers published between 2000 and 2021 and identified a total of 32 studies. Although the review investigated all types of tree nuts —almond, Brazil nut, cashew, hazelnut, pistachio, pecan, pine nut, macadamia and walnut— meta-analysis was not possible in all cases.
The findings showed that self-reported lifetime prevalence was 0.8% for hazelnut and 0.4% for walnut. Self-reported point prevalence —that is, prevalence at the time of study— was 4.0% for hazelnut, 3.4% for Brazil nut, 2.0% for almond and 1.8% for walnut. Point prevalence of food-challenge-confirmed tree nut allergy was 0.04% for hazelnut and 0.02% for walnut.
This study provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date survey of the prevalence of specific tree nut allergies in Europe.
In a recent study published in the Journal of Nutrition, researchers evaluated the effect of consuming cashews and Brazil nuts on potentially beneficial bacteria and pathways associated with body fat reduction.
A total of 40 overweight or obese women were enrolled in this eight-week randomized controlled trial. Participants were assigned to one of two energy-restricted groups (−500 kcal/d). The intervention group ate 30 grams of cashews and 15 grams of Brazil nuts per day, while the control group did not consume nuts.
Both groups lost weight without statistical differences. Lactulose excretion increased only in the control group. The nut group had higher levels of fecal propionic acid and potentially beneficial bacteria as compared to the control group. Changes in intestinal permeability were correlated to a greater reduction in body fat and increases in Ruminococcus abundance.
The researchers concluded that consuming cashews and Brazil nuts may have a positive impact within an energy-restricted context and may be linked to the augmentation of potentially beneficial bacteria and pathways associated with body fat reduction.
South Africa, reports that this season, the increase in crop volume due to many new plantings coincides with lower demand, pushing prices down. In 2023, growers received around USD 8.25/kg (around ZAR 152/kg), while the average price in 2022 was still USD 11.50/kg and in 2021 even USD 16.00/kg. Market players are expecting a slight price increase this year, which has already begun. Farmer's Weekly spoke to market player Roelof van Rooyen, who emphasises that the popularity of the respective macadamia varieties plays a decisive role in the price development. Certain varieties are therefore increasingly on offer and farmers have to pay more attention to the quality of their goods. However, demand has risen due to the favourable prices and stocks are running low. Macadamias South Africa estimates the 2023 crop at 77,532 mt (in-shell, 1.5% moisture) – a noticeable increase on the 68,849 mt harvested in the previous year. The estimates for 2024 currently amount to a good 86,000 mt.
Neck-and-neck race for German imports
Kenya and South Africa are the most important suppliers for German macadamia imports. In 2023, German imports totalled 3,764 mt of shelled macadamias. Kenya took first place with 1,160 mt and an increase of 16.7%, while South Africa suffered a decline of 17.6% and slipped to second place. German imports from Australia and Malawi recorded significant increases. Looking at German macadamia imports since the start of the season (September-December 2023), South Africa is currently slightly ahead. The country has supplied 598 mt to Germany so far and is neck-and-neck with Kenya, whose shipments to Germany totalled 528 mt in the period mentioned.
US growers have mainly wrapped up the season. Although initially upbeat about production prospects in Oklahoma, adverse weather conditions and unattractive prices have prompted a downturn in output. Some growers will put their supplies into cold storage to fetch better prices later as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports. This is also the case in Arizona, where some volumes will be going into cold storage until prices change after the Easter holidays. USDA figures for December, however, indicate that cold storage supplies dropped to 129 million pounds of inshell pecans (50% shelled meats), the lowest since December 2005.
To support the market the USDA is currently purchasing 6.2 million lbs of pecan pieces. While sales are currently good for pecans yielding a meat volume of 50% or more in Arizona, buyers prefer to wait in Texas, where less volumes are available. General expectation is that prices will continue to rise throughout the spring. Supplies of pecan pieces and halves in good quality are already limited in the US.
US exports only 7% down
At 132 million pounds US crop receipts ranged 28% higher than last year’s 103 million pounds for September through to December. Yet, the number of substandard pecans received rose by 67% to 6.4 million pounds as compared with the 3.8 million pounds received last year due to hurricane damages in Georgia along with the hot summer and frost damages perceived in Oklahoma and Texas. Total (inshell basis) shipments have also declined by 4% to 157.2 million pounds as opposed to last year’s 163.5 million pounds. A total of 51.2 million pounds of shelled meats were shipped to the domestic market in 2023/2024 thereby ranging 6% lower than the 54.6 million pounds recorded last year.
Shelled meat exports declined by 7% to 9.5 million pounds. Exports to Canada and Israel, the two most important destinations, are 8% down. Contrary to this, shipments to South Korea have surged by 86%. Inshell exports have risen sharply to 22.4 million pounds as opposed to only 4.5 million pounds last year as China purchased a stunning 22.1 million pounds of inshell pecans, the highest volumes since trade tariffs struck in 2017/2018.
