Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz, said that this comes as we emerge from a solid 2024-25 season characterised by ample harvests in various crops, fruits, and vegetables, and a better grazing veld, supported by the favourable La Niña-induced rains.
“Looking to the upcoming season, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), which we have long leaned on for forecasts, released its monthly update on September 19, indicating an increased possibility of La Niña occurrence from October through to early next year.”
Sihlobo added that the IRI forecast indicates a moderate probability (56%) of La Niña conditions developing during September to November 2025.
“These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through December 2025 to February 2026, and weaken from March 2026 onwards. Ordinarily, La Niña brings above-normal rainfall in South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region, which would support agricultural activity.”
Sihlobo said that in the past, a La Niña has typically been followed by an El Niño, which brings below-normal rainfall and negatively impacts the agricultural sector.
“But more recently, we have witnessed some prolonged periods of La Niña rains. A case in point is the period from 2020 to 2023, during which South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region experienced La Niña rains. The early projections suggest that we are on a path to experiencing a second consecutive season of La Niña rains.”
Sihlobo added that, as is the case with any forecast, there is some uncertainty around the timing and intensity.
La Niña is here! Here’s what that means for our weather
“Across South Africa, farmers will start preparing the land for various crops in the coming weeks. One that typically receives much attention is grains and oilseeds, as they are mainly rainfed (90%), with the rest under irrigation. The promising weather outlook will likely encourage farmers to plant a decent area for crops. In the 2024-25 season, which is on its tail end, farmers planted 4.44 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds.”
Sihlobo said that this was slightly higher than the previous season.
"Because of the above-average rainfall, the sector was able to have an estimated summer grains and oilseeds harvest of 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). It does appear to us that farmers are gearing up for the next season. One of the indicators we monitor to assess the readiness for the upcoming season is tractor sales. We have observed that South Africa's tractor sales have increased for the past eight consecutive months.”
Sihlobo added that the recent data for August also paints an upbeat picture. “For example, the tractor sales are up 22% year-on-year, with 700 units sold. Indeed, the increase in tractor sales partly reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest. Still, we cannot discount the likelihood that farmers are buying more tractors because they are upbeat about the upcoming season.”
The La Niña weather phenomenon, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is expected to influence South Africa’s climate and economy significantly during the 2025-2026 agricultural season. Characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, La Niña typically brings increased rainfall and cooler temperatures to southern Africa, contrasting with the drier, warmer conditions associated with El Niño. As South Africa transitions from a neutral ENSO phase to a potential weak La Niña, the implications for agriculture, food security, and the broader economy are profound.
La Niña Forecast for 2025-2026According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the ENSO cycle is currently in a neutral phase, but climate models indicate a 71% chance of a weak La Niña forming between October and December 2025, with a 54% chance of persisting through February 2026. However, some forecasters, such as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, suggest that La Niña may already be fading or may not fully materialize, potentially leading to variability in expected rainfall. Despite this uncertainty, the consensus leans toward a weak La Niña event, which could bring above-average rainfall to South Africa, particularly during the critical spring and summer planting seasons (September 2025 to January 2026).
Agriculture is a cornerstone of South Africa’s economy, and La Niña’s wetter conditions are generally favorable for rain-fed farming regions.
The Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) reports early optimism for the 2025-2026 season, driven by La Niña prospects and a 10-point rise in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index in Q4 2024. Increased tractor sales further signal farmers’ confidence in favorable conditions. However, patchy rainfall in some grain-producing areas, where La Niña has not fully delivered, underscores the need for cautious planning.
La Niña’s potential for abundant rainfall could bolster South Africa’s food security and ease inflationary pressures. The SA Reserve Bank’s recent paper on climate change notes that climate shocks, like El Niño droughts, drive cost-push inflation through higher food prices and disrupt supply chains. A successful La Niña season could stabilize maize and other staple prices, critical for a country where 20% of farmland is at risk and food inflation has been a persistent challenge.
For example, the global egg market, projected to grow 22% by 2035 with Africa as a key driver, relies on stable grain supplies for poultry feed. Improved maize yields under La Niña could support South Africa’s poultry industry, reducing import reliance and enhancing export potential. Similarly, the wheat sector, facing global trade declines due to tariff shifts, could benefit from local production boosts, reducing dependence on imports like those from Iraq, which fell 9% in 2024-2025.However, the SA Reserve Bank warns that climate volatility, even under La Niña, poses risks. Floods could damage infrastructure and disrupt logistics, as seen in past seasons, potentially offsetting agricultural gains. Smaller enterprises, lacking adaptation buffers, are particularly vulnerable, emphasizing the need for climate-resilient investments like those in Sanlam’s Sustainable Infrastructure Fund.
While La Niña generally brings rain, its weak nature in 2025-2026 may lead to uneven outcomes. Some grain-producing regions have already experienced severe heat and insufficient rainfall, tempering expectations. The transition to El Niño, which could bring drought by late 2026, remains a looming threat, especially given its devastating impact on southern Africa’s 2023-2024 harvests. Farmers must balance optimism with preparedness, leveraging technologies like precision farming and high-yield cultivars, as emphasized by Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen at the Roodebloem Farmers’ Day.
La Niña’s agricultural promise comes amid broader challenges. President Trump’s concerns about farm attacks and land expropriation in South Africa highlight ongoing security issues that could deter investment and exacerbate food security risks if farmers emigrate. AfriForum’s push to prioritize farm murders and expand community safety networks underscores the tension between policy inaction and grassroots resilience. A strong La Niña season could mitigate some of these pressures by boosting rural economies, but systemic issues like unemployment (32.9% in 2024) and infrastructure decay remain hurdles.
For South Africa in 2025-2026, a weak La Niña offers hope for a robust agricultural season, with increased rainfall potentially driving higher crop yields, refilling water sources, and easing food price inflation. This could strengthen food security and support industries like poultry and wheat, aligning with global trends in egg and grain markets. However, variability in rainfall, flood risks, and socio-political challenges, including farm safety and land reform debates, necessitate cautious optimism. Farmers, policymakers, and investors must collaborate to capitalize on La Niña’s benefits while preparing for potential disruptions, ensuring South Africa’s economic and agricultural resilience in a warming world.
