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CUMULUS report 29th April 2021 –

Upper-air troughs in the westerlies will be positioned more favorably for the South African interior to receive showers and thundershowers. A significant system later this week will be responsible for most of the rain over the central to eastern areas, with a possibility of snow over parts of the Drakensberg (northern parts of the Eastern Cape and Lesotho) by Friday (30th). With the more summer-like circulation pattern ahead, temperatures are on average expected to remain near normal to slightly above normal over most parts, with no indication of a widespread severe frost event during the next week. Moreover, the lack of strong frontal systems over the southwestern parts will result in a continuation of dry conditions over especially the western parts of the winter rainfall region for now. The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:

• General: o Temperatures will be near normal to above normal over most of the country, with largest positive deviations over the central to western interior. o Rainfall will be above normal over the central to southeastern parts, but near normal over most of the rest of the interior. The winter rainfall region is expected to remain dry for the most part according to current forecasts. o There is no indication of widespread severe frost over the interior during the next few days. Cooler conditions over the Drakensberg and Eastern Highveld towards early next week may be associated with light frost in frost-prone areas. o Partly cloudy to cloudy and cool conditions will occur over the central to southeastern areas from Thursday (29th), moving into the eastern and northeastern parts during the next few days into the weekend while clearing over the central areas. o Yet another system is expected to result in scattered showers and thundershowers over the western to central parts by early next week. o Temperatures over the summer-grain production area will be near normal:

▪ Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production areas will be in the order of 10 – 25°C, with the lower temperatures during the rainy conditions from Friday to Sunday. Minimum temperatures will be in the order of 3 – 10°C, with lowest temperatures expected by Sunday/Monday (2nd/3rd) following the rain.

▪ Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 15 and 28°C, with lowest temperatures during the weekend. Minimums will be in the order of 9 – 15°C. o The winter rainfall region is expected to receive very little to no rain during the next few days. o Fresh to strong south-easterlies will persist over the southwestern coastal areas initially, reaching a maximum by Thursday (29th).

 Wednesday (28 th): Sunny to partly cloudy and mild to warm and dry over most of the country. It will become partly cloudy and mild over the central to eastern Northern Cape, western Free State and Eastern Cape with isolated thundershowers. It will be mild to cool over the southern areas where an on-shore flow will result in showers along the Garden Route.

Little to no rain is expected over the winter rainfall region, with strong southeasterlies in the southwest. It will be warm to hot over the Limpopo River Valley and Lowveld. o

Thursday (29 th): While the northeast will remain mild to warm and dry, partly cloudy to cloudy conditions are expected over the central to southeastern parts with scattered showers and thundershowers, but widespread over the eastern half of the Eastern Cape

Friday (30 th): Partly cloudy to cloudy and cooler conditions with scattered showers or thundershowers will move into the northeastern parts, with most areas from the central Free State northwards and eastwards expected to receive some rain. It should remain cloudy with widespread showers over most of KZN and the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape while snow is possible along the Drakensberg, mostly in Lesotho and the northern parts of the Eastern Cape. It will be warm to hot over the Limpopo River Valley and Lowveld. o Saturday (1 st): It will be cloudy and cool with easterly winds over most of the eastern to northeastern half of the country and isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers.

The western half of the country should be sunny and warm, becoming hot along the West Coast where an off-shore flow will result in hot, bergwind conditions. o

Sunday (2nd): It will initially be cool to cold over the Eastern Highveld with minimum temperatures in the low single digits – and possible light frost in frost-prone areas. It will remain cloudy to partly cloudy over the northeastern parts, with isolated showers or thundershowers over North West and Gauteng as well as the adjacent areas of neighboring provinces, according to current forecasts. It will also become partly cloudy over the northern parts of the Northern Cape with isolated thundershowers. Warm to hot bergwind conditions will once again occur along the West Coast, spreading southwards over the rest of the winter rainfall region. o

Monday (3 rd): It will again initially be cool to cold over the Eastern Highveld with minimum temperatures in the low single digits – and possible light frost in frost-prone areas. It will remain warm to hot over the western parts, spreading also eastwards in the south to include the Eastern Cape. Isolated to scattered thundershowers are expected by the afternoon and evening over the central to western parts of the Northern Cape as well as the interior of the Western Cape, in some cases possibly reaching the coast. The central to northeastern parts of the country will be sunny and mild to warm.


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