Cathrine Mathekga- Hollard Insure and Farmingportal.co.za and Agri News Net - Young Agri Writers awards 2026
The Agricultural Communicator
Has the South African grain sector become more resilient to El Niño?
The 1991/92 El Niño remains the most extreme drought event recorded in the agricultural industry in Southern Africa. Maize production in South Africa decreased by 60%, sunflower by 70%, and yields across all the summergrain crops plummeted to 1t/ha, which remains the lowest yield recorded. More than 3 decades later, South Africa experienced more El Niño events, including the 2015/16 and 2023/24 seasons, yet the production losses were not on the same level. This makes me wonder; has El Niño become less severe over time, or has South Africa become better at managing it? This analysis will focus on summergrain production, areas planted and yield trends across El Niño seasons to determine the extent of impact.
Across this timeline, comparing the El Niño events over the past 3 decades shows a clear pattern of lower production accompanied by lower yields; however, the impact has changed. Producers have adapted and adjusted planting decisions before the season. Crop diversification and other practices have improved, particularly with the increased expansion of soybeans and the shift to sunflowers over drier seasons. Additionally, advancements in drought-resistant seed technology and agronomy practices have helped to mitigate production losses.
Starting with the 1991/92 season, one of the trends observed during all the El Niño events is that production losses were driven by lower yields rather than lower area planted. During the 1991/92 season, the area planted to maize increased by 9% from the previous season, but the dry conditions caused yields to decrease from 2.4t/ha to 1.6t/ha. Sunflowers followed a similar pattern, as production losses exceeded 70%, yet the area planted was higher. Around the same time, soybean production was being expanded in South Africa, and the crop proved to be more resilient, despite the lower yields.
The next major comparison came more than two decades later, when South Africa experienced another El Niño event during the 2015/16 production season. Rather than sticking to normal planting patterns, farmers planted 25% less maize from the previous season and 17% more sunflowers as a catch crop. While maize production decreased significantly, it was not as much as in the 1991/92 season. Even during the moderate 2018/19 El Niño, the impact was still lower than the earlier drought event.
Most recently, the 2023/24 season showed a clear picture of how well adapted the South African grain industry has become over the past 3 decades. Delayed below-average summer rainfall reduced the higher levels of production recorded in the previous season; however, the impact was far less severe than the first two drought events. Maize yields remained well above the levels recorded previously, and sunflower yields were higher as well. Rather than eliminating the effects of El Niño, the 2023/24 season demonstrated that South African agriculture has become better equipped to manage climatic risk and recover from adverse weather conditions.
Looking ahead, this does not mean South African agriculture has become immune to El Niño. Every El Niño event is different, and different levels of intensity, from mild to moderate to super, have been recorded. Recent information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated that El Niño has developed and will strengthen towards the end of the year. Amongst the other challenges in agriculture, El Niño remains the biggest threat to crop production and has been identified as a risk for the upcoming 2026/27 summergrain production season. There have been various forecasts that the El Niño will strengthen towards the end of the year until early next year. Farmers typically operate within established crop rotation systems and are unlikely to make drastic adjustments that could compromise long-term production sustainability. This means they will not stop planting entirely. Maize farmers will more likely turn to a more drought-resistant and short-maturing crop such as sunflowers, just like we saw in the 2023/24 season. What is setting this season apart is that we received above-average rains earlier this year, and the water tables are fuller, with the soil moisture expected to assist the farmers through the harsh weather conditions. Although the drought cannot be prevented, the way farmers approach and respond to such climatic conditions has changed over the years.
Cathrine Mathekga
My name is Cathrine Mathekga, and I was born and raised in the beautiful Jacaranda City of Pretoria. My journey into economics began in primary school through the Economic and Management Sciences (EMS) subject, where I first discovered my passion for understanding how economies work. This interest deepened throughout high school and was further nurtured through the University of Pretoria's UP with Science programme in Grade 10, which introduced me to the field that would shape my career.
Alongside my love for economics, I developed a strong interest in agriculture, driven by a curiosity about how enough food is produced to feed the growing population. I went on to complete both my Honours degree and MSc in Agricultural Economics at the University of Pretoria. My master's research focused on a comparative analysis of agricultural digitalisation in Gauteng and Mpumalanga.
Today, I am a Junior Agricultural Economist at Grain SA, where I work in the Input and Production Division. My work focuses on analysing grain production, production conditions, and agricultural input markets, and I particularly enjoy working with summer grains, especially maize, soybeans and sorghum.
