GERRIT OLIVIER - Hollard Insure and Farmingportal.co.za and Agri News Net - Young Agri Writers awards 2026
The Climate Twins: Waiting for the Next Chapter
Every farmer knows the feeling.
The planter is serviced. Seed is delivered. Fertiliser waits in the shed. Yet before the first seed touches the soil, there is one question no amount of planning can answer: What kind of season is coming?
The answer may begin nearly 16 000 kilometres away, in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There, two natural climate patterns quietly influence weather across the globe. They are known as El Niño and La Niña, names first given by Peruvian fishermen centuries ago. El Niño, Spanish for "The Little Boy" or "Christ Child," described unusually warm ocean waters that appeared around Christmas. Its opposite, La Niña, meaning "The Little Girl," refers to unusually cool waters in the same region.
Although these climate twins are born in the Pacific, they can determine whether maize grows in the Free State, wheat fills grain bins in the Western Cape or drought grips Southern Africa.
During El Niño, South Africa's summer rainfall regions often experience hotter, drier conditions, while La Niña generally brings cooler, wetter weather. Although favourable for crops, excessive rainfall can also cause flooding, disease pressure and harvest delays.
Neither twin is perfect...
History reminds us why.
The 2015/16 El Niño produced one of South Africa's worst droughts in decades. Although farmers planted similar areas to previous seasons, maize production fell sharply as crops wilted under severe moisture stress. The difference wasn’t how much land was planted, it was how little rain fell when crops needed it most.
January often determines the harvest. Adequate soil moisture and timely rainfall during pollination can reduce crop losses, even during an El Niño year. It proves that in agriculture, timing can be more valuable than quantity.
Scientists are once again forecasting an increased likelihood of El Niño developing during the 2026/27 summer rainfall season. Historical comparisons suggest yield losses could range from 20% to as much as 50% under severe drought conditions, depending on rainfall and available soil moisture.
The numbers behind that risk tell an equally important story. Figure1 shows how quickly the picture can change if maize production declines. A crop that is 20% below the five-year-average would still leave South Africa with about 1.28 million tonnes of maize in carry-over stocks. However, if production falls by 35%, those stocks would drop to around 646 000 tonnes below the 900 000 tonnes needed to keep the supply pipeline running smoothly. Under a severe 40% production decline, South Africa could face a maize shortage, increasing the need for imports and placing upward pressure on maize and food prices.
But a drought is only part of the story.
A poor harvest affects far more than the farm. Lower production reduces grain available for livestock feed, limits exports, places upward pressure on prices and can increase the cost of staple foods. Every tonne lost in the field creates ripple effects throughout the agricultural value chain, reminding farmers why careful planning and risk management are essential.
These concerns extend beyond South Africa. At the 2026 International Grains Council Conference, experts identified El Niño as one of the key factors shaping global grain markets, emphasising that agriculture's future depends on resilience, innovation and farmers' ability to adapt. Reliable food supplies will not come from favourable weather alone, but from farmers who continue adapting to an increasingly uncertain climate.
Perhaps the greatest lesson El Niño and La Niña teach us is one that extends beyond farming.
When parents are expecting a baby, they wait with excitement to discover whether they will welcome a little boy or a little girl. Neither child is more important than the other. Each brings different challenges, learns in different ways and leaves a different mark on the world. Good parents don't choose the child they receive—they prepare to love, teach and guide whichever one arrives.
Farmers face the same anticipation every season.
They cannot choose whether El Niño or La Niña will arrive. One may bring drought, the other abundant rain. One may demand resilience, the other careful management. Both require wisdom, preparation and the willingness to adapt.
Eventually, every season comes to an end and another chapter begins.
The future of agriculture will never be determined by whether the next visitor is a little boy or a little girl. It will be determined by how well we understand them, how wisely we prepare for them and whether we continue planting seeds of hope no matter which twin comes knocking.
GERRIT OLIVIER
I am a hardworking and driven young man with a genuine passion for agriculture. Growing up on a farm outside Lichtenburg in the North West has shaped my interest in the agricultural industry from a young age and given me an appreciation for the hard work that goes into farming.
I enjoy learning, meeting new people and gaining experience in different areas of agriculture. My goal is to keep learning as much as I can about the industry and to use the knowledge and experience I have gained to make a positive contribution. I am not afraid of hard work, enjoy taking on new challenges and always try to approach my work with a positive attitude.
