In the past 5 years, volatile weather conditions have kept the South African producers on their “knees”. Through these trying times they’ve always remained resilient. Another dry and trying season.

The impact of the recent Western Cape drought to South Africa’s 2018 agricultural exports is marginal when viewed in value terms. South Africa’s agricultural exports for the first 11 months of 2018 amounted to US$9.9 billion, which is 0.5% lower than 2017 exports.

The decrease in the total gross producer value (GPV) of maize for 2019 will be limited by increased maize prices. Due to the severe drought in 2016 the increased price levels maintained the gross producer value of production. It is thus expected to be the case in 2019 as well.

Conservation agriculture is a system that utilises soils for the production of crops with the aim of reducing excessive use of the soil and maintaining crop residues on the soil surface in order to minimise damage to the environment.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted its estimates for the country’s 2018/19 grains and oilseeds production by 0.4% from last month to 12.7 million tonnes.

World prices for rice have changed little overall in recent months, although they remain down compared to the first few months of 2018. Demand has remained subdued, with a forecast 2019-20 crop that is down slightly from last year’s record.

The available data suggests that Zimbabwe, Kenya and Mozambique will collectively need to import about 2.5 million tonnes of maize in the 2019/20 marketing year in order to satisfy the domestic demand in the respective countries.

“Functional Foods” are foods or dietary components that claim to provide health benefits aside from basic nutrition1. These foods contain biologically active substances such as antioxidants that may lower the risks from certain diseases associated with aging.

Local cotton prices expected to decline in the next 2-3 months due to supply pressures in the Northern hemisphere.

The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee show that South Africa’s 2019/20 summer grains and oilseeds production could increase by 32% y/y to 17.5 million tonnes. 

 South Africa’s 2019/20 fourth summer crop production estimates data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) did not introduce major adjustments from the previous estimates.

I’ve recently cautioned that dryness in parts of Europe and North America could lead to poor grain yields, which would mean that anticipated record harvests in 2020/21 might fail to materialise.

The global grains environment has changed somewhat from the optimistic picture of a few weeks ago.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT- South Africa Grains and Oil Seeds Page

Regular readers of this blog may remember that on Mondays, I provide an update of South Africa’s weekly grain data, also at times with a highlight of various events in the agricultural data calendar for the week ahead.

It is not my usual practice to revisit the subject of a previous column. But in this instance I am compelled to do so because of the fast-changing global agricultural outlook and its implications for prices.

THE SOUTH AFRICAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FOR October 2020 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast to rise to a record of 2.2 billion tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing year, according to the latest International Grains Council (IGC) grain market report released .

The projection includes record harvest totals for wheat (768 million tonnes) and barley (158 million tonnes).

The outlook for global agricultural conditions is once again in the spotlight this week as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release its projections for the 2021/22 production season.

We've recently shared our view on South Africa's consumer food price inflation for the second quarter of the year1 , which is a moderation from the higher levels of 7% y/y in June 2021.