For much of the year, attention has been focused on the sharp increase in oil prices. Oil is important to agriculture because farmers need diesel to operate tractors, planters, harvesters, irrigation equipment and trucks. When diesel becomes more expensive, almost every part of farming becomes more expensive.
But there is another major concern that farmers are watching closely: fertiliser prices.
The Middle East is an important supplier of fertiliser and fertiliser raw materials to the world. Countries in the Gulf region produce large quantities of urea, ammonia and other products needed by farmers. The war and the uncertainty around shipping routes have therefore created pressure on the international fertiliser market.
This is a serious issue because fertiliser is one of the most important inputs in modern agriculture. Farmers need nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium to maintain crop production and soil fertility. When fertiliser becomes too expensive, farmers have to make difficult decisions.
Some may reduce the amount of fertiliser they apply. Others may change their planting programmes or try to reduce other costs. But reducing fertiliser can also reduce yields, which can eventually mean less food entering the market.
The problem becomes even bigger when fuel, fertiliser and transport costs rise at the same time.
A farmer does not only pay for the diesel used in the tractor. Fuel is also involved in transporting fertiliser to the farm, moving grain to storage facilities, transporting food to markets and moving agricultural products to ports for export.
This means that an international conflict can eventually reach the consumer's shopping basket
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South Africa is exposed
South Africa is not isolated from these international problems. The country imports a large portion of its fertiliser requirements, which means local farmers are exposed to international prices, shipping costs and exchange-rate movements.
South African farmers can therefore face higher fertiliser prices even though there is no war taking place in South Africa.
A weaker exchange rate can make imported inputs even more expensive, while a stronger rand can provide some relief. International oil prices also have a direct effect on South African fuel prices.
For grain farmers, this is particularly important because planting a crop requires a large investment before the farmer knows what the final harvest price will be.
The farmer has to buy seed, fertiliser, chemicals, diesel and other inputs months before the crop is harvested. If input prices rise sharply, the financial risk becomes much greater.
The food security concern
The biggest concern is what happens if these pressures continue for a long period.
Higher production costs can lead to higher food prices. At the same time, farmers cannot simply increase prices whenever their costs increase. They still depend on international commodity prices, local demand, weather conditions and competition.
This creates pressure throughout the entire agricultural chain.
There is also the weather factor. El Niño and other extreme weather conditions can reduce agricultural production in important parts of the world. If lower production happens at the same time as higher fertiliser and fuel prices, global food markets can become even more volatile.
For South Africa, this makes local food production more important than ever.
Farmers need affordable inputs, reliable electricity and fuel, functioning roads and railways, efficient ports and access to markets. They also need sufficient water and reasonable financing costs.
The Middle East war has shown how connected the modern food system has become. A conflict thousands of kilometres away can affect the price of oil, which affects diesel; diesel affects farming and transport; fertiliser prices increase production costs; and all of these pressures can eventually influence the price of food.
For farmers, the war is therefore not only a Middle East story. It is an agricultural story, a food-security story and a South African consumer story.
The world may be watching the war from a distance, but farmers are watching something much closer: the cost of producing the next crop.
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