Since the last Update on November 15, 2024, the agricultural, export, and cereal price indices closed 12, 25, and 1 percent higher, respectively. A sharp increase in cocoa and coffee prices, which increased 28 and 26 percent, respectively, drove the increase in the export price index. Maize and wheat prices closed 3 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and rice prices closed 2 percent lower. On a year-on-year basis, prices of all cereals in November were lower than a year ago: maize 9% lower, rice 10% lower, and wheat 2% lower. Maize and rice prices are 14 and 26 percent higher, respectively, than in January 2020, while wheat prices are 1 percent lower. (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)

In the Market Monitor for December 2024, the Agriculture Market Information System notes that global wheat, maize, rice, and soybean prices are lower than in 2023, with significant reductions observed across all categories. This reflects a relatively stable global market for the current marketing season, although uncertainties linger. Climate conditions in 2024, projected to be the warmest year on record, have influenced crop yields in varying ways. Although some regions benefited, others faced challenges, underscoring the vulnerability of agricultural systems to weather anomalies.

In the November 2024 edition of its biannual Food Outlook, FAO indicates that global food production is experiencing diverse trends across commodities. Declines are projected for wheat, maize, and sugar, whereas outputs of dairy, fisheries, meats, oilseeds, and rice are expected to grow. These shifts have implications for global consumption, trade, and stock levels, although food production remains highly sensitive to disruptions from adverse weather conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes. These factors threaten the balance between supply and demand, potentially undermining global food security. The Food Outlook also describes significant changes in the fertilizer market. After a challenging 2022 marked by high costs and limited production, 2023 saw notable recovery. In 2024, nitrogen production is expected to remain stable, phosphate production to decline slightly, and potassium to continue its growth trajectory. Lower natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen fertilizers, have been instrumental in stabilizing production costs.

According to the WFP 2025 Global Outlook, an estimated 343 million people are acutely food insecure across 74 countries where WFP operates—10% more than in 2023 and nearly 200 million more than before the pandemic. An estimated 1.9 million people are on the brink of famine in 2024, primarily in Gaza and Sudan but also in Haiti, Mali, and pockets of South Sudan. Conflict, economic factors, and climate remain the main drivers of food insecurity, with 65 percent of acutely food-insecure people living in fragile or conflict-affected situations.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food and fertilizer trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of December 2024, 17 countries have implemented 22 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 12 export-limiting measures.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -16th December 2024

Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture. The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 296 million people. Some examples include:

In Honduras, the Rural Competitiveness Project series (COMRURAL II and III) aims to generate entrepreneurship and employment opportunities while promoting a climate-conscious, nutrition-smart strategy in agri-food value chains. To date, the program is benefiting around 6,287 rural small-scale producers (of which 33% are women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous) of coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other commodities through enhanced market connections and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and has created 6,678 new jobs.

In Honduras, the Corredor Seco Food Security Project (PROSASUR) strives to enhance food security for impoverished and vulnerable rural households in the country’s Dry Corridor. This project has supported 12,202 extremely vulnerable families through nutrition-smart agricultural subprojects, food security plans, community nutrition plans, and nutrition and hygiene education. Within the beneficiary population, 70% of children under the age of five and their mothers now have a dietary diversity score of at least 4 (i.e., consume at least four food groups).

The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. Now in phase three, the program will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.

A $95 million credit from IDA for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) to increase commercialization of select agriculture value chain products and to provide immediate and effective response to an eligible crisis or emergency.

The $200 million IDA grant for Madagascar to strengthen decentralized service delivery, upgrade water supply, restore and protect landscapes, and strengthen the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-prone ‘Grand Sud’.

A $60 million credit for the Integrated Community Development Project that works with refugees and host communities in four northern provinces of Burundi to improve food and nutrition security, build socio-economic infrastructure, and support micro-enterprise development through a participatory approach.
The $175 million Sahel Irrigation Initiative Regional Support Project is helping build resilience and boost productivity of agricultural and pastoral activities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. More than 130,000 farmers and members of pastoral communities are benefiting from small and medium-sized irrigation initiatives. The project is building a portfolio of bankable irrigation investment projects of around 68,000 ha, particularly in medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.

Futures markets have seen a record-breaking run in cocoa prices in 2024, a surge exacerbated by the hedge funds that provide much of their liquidity heading for the exit.Here are some facts on futures markets, including how they operate and the main players. Cocoa beans are the vital ingredient in chocolate. The world's cocoa – harvested from the Theobroma cacao tree, native to the Amazon rainforest - is now mostly produced in West African countries, principally Ghana and Ivory Coast, and in Latin America.Many of the world's cocoa beans are bought by large trade houses like Cargill, Olam and Barry Callebaut, which is also a chocolate maker.In Ghana and Ivory Coast, the top two producers, these trading houses pre-buy beans via government contracts ahead of the growing season, with the crop then delivered during the October-to-September growing season.Some traders also process beans into powder, butter and liquor that is used in products from chocolate bars to face cream, and then sell these to chocolate makers.

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