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Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Summary of USDA 2025 Acreage Report and Market Implications:The USDA’s June 30, 2025, Acreage report provided planting estimates for major U.S. crops, with no major surprises but some notable deviations from expectations:
- Corn: Estimated at 95.203 million acres, up 5% from 2024 but slightly below the average analyst forecast (95.350 million acres) and the USDA’s March estimate (95.326 million acres). Stable acreage reflects a lack of shifts from soybeans, influenced by a less severe U.S.-China trade outlook and favorable late planting weather.
- Soybeans: Estimated at 83.380 million acres, down 4.2% from 2024, below analyst expectations (83.655 million acres) and the March estimate (83.495 million acres). Maintaining acreage close to March intentions is positive, given potential losses from trade tensions with China, which accounts for 57% of U.S. soybean exports ($12.84 billion last year). The EPA’s June 13 higher-than-expected biodiesel blending recommendations boosted soybean oil futures by 17%, though prices later moderated. Strong export demand and biodiesel use will keep soybean stocks tight, with increased crush supporting meal supply but pressuring other feed ingredients.
- Wheat: Estimated at 45.478 million acres, down 1% from 2024, with winter wheat at 33.325 million acres (nearly flat year-on-year) and spring wheat at 10.045 million acres (down 5%). Durum wheat is up 2% at 2.108 million acres. The report aligned closely with expectations, offering little market disruption.
- Sorghum: Estimated at 6.2 million acres, down 100,000 acres from 2024.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he is willing to let migrant labourers stay in the United States if the farmers they work for will vouch for them. At a campaign-style speech at the Iowa state fairgrounds, Trump said he is working with the Homeland Security Department to help farmers who depend on migrant laborers for their seasonal needs. He said he will also work with the hotel industry on the issue. Trump has been pursuing a hard-line policy on migration and his US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has been leading an effort to deport people who crossed into the United States illegally. This has led to some complaints from farmers that their crops are at risk due to a depleted work force. "If a farmer is willing to vouch for these people in some way, Kristi, I think we're going to have to just say that's going to be good, right?" "We don't want to do it where we take all of the workers off the farms," he added, speaking in a Midwestern state where farming is a dominant industry.
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday that another seven countries have removed trade restrictions related to the bird flu outbreak in May, The countries are Argentina, Cuba, United Arab Emirates, Philippines, India, Mauritania and Uruguay, according a statement from the ministry. Last month, Brazil had declared itself free of bird flu in commercial flocks after observing a 28-day period without any new commercial farm outbreaks.
The European Union has increased its import quota for Ukrainian wheat to 1.3 million metric tons from 1 million tons as part of a revised free-trade agreement, Reuters reported, citing a senior EU official on Friday. The EU and Ukraine reached an initial trade deal at the end of June. The EU had temporarily waived duties and quotas on Ukraine's agricultural products in June 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion and resulting threat to its traditional Black Sea shipping lanes. The revised agreement includes 40 goods and still needs to be adopted by a qualified majority of member states. As part of the deal, the EU also increased its import quota for Ukrainian sugar to 100,000 tons from 20,000 tons and its barley import quota to 450,000 tons from 350,000 tons. The import quota on poultry was also increased to 120,000 tons from 90,000 tons.
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